Vijay L Bhambwani's Ticker: The reason why bulls aren't stepping out yet

Mint

20-07-2025

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Dear reader,
Last week, I wrote optimism was giving way to desolation. Bulls were showing a lack of conviction not seen for months. Traded volumes shrank sizeably, and take-home profits shrank significantly. It became a self-fulfilling prophecy of sorts. Traded volumes were poor because profits were meagre, and profits were meagre because traded volumes took a hit. This vicious circle will be broken only after traded volumes rise significantly. Where yields on theta decay (collecting premiums) on option writing are concerned, the low-hanging fruit has been picked already. The road ahead seems to be mildly uphill. That means increased capital intensity and lower take-home profits. That means a small portion of present traders may exit the markets, atleast temporarily.
US president Trump continued to threaten nations with additional tariffs and kept markets on the edge. Particularly noteworthy was the threat to impose sanctions on Russian oil exports and nations that bought Russian oil and gas. That includes India. Overseas institutional investors continued to press short sales on Indian markets inspite of announcements of a near breakthrough in India-US trade deal. That was an overhang of overhead supply for retail traders who were stuck with purchases at higher levels. This phenomena of overhead supply occurs when a sizeable number of traders are waiting in the wings to offload their open trades as soon as they reach break-even levels. This usually acts like a speed-breaker for a bull market.
That means buyers must not only buy in large volumes but they must continue to buy in large volumes till all the overhead supply is absorbed and selling pressure subsides. That is a challenging task. It will show up on your trading terminal's screen on the snap quote window. If the bid/offer spreads (difference between the best buyer and best sellers limit orders) narrow to within 5-6 ticks, you know liquidity is improving. The value of a tick is 5 paise per share for stocks trading above ₹ 250.
In the commodity markets, industrial metals may see month-end short-covering lifting prices. That can have a trickle-down effect on stock prices of some metal mining companies' stock prices. Much will depend on the overall market sentiment prevalent this week. If sentiments are cautious or weak, the rally in these stocks may be subdued as well. Public sector undertakings (PSUs) will continue to witness hectic activity in two-way trades as traders are heavily invested in this segment. Banks will attract greater attention among PSU stocks as this segment commands the heaviest weightage in the Nifty.
Precious metals witnessed profit-taking at higher levels as the US dollar index gained strength. Safe-haven buying eased mildly. If you are a patient long-term investor, look beyond 2025 and the bullish story is still intact.
In the energy space, the markets continue to remain adequately supplied, and rallies are proving to be seasonal and short-lived. Higher levels are running into a wall of selling. While geopolitical and/or natural events (June to October is the hurricane season in the US) can trigger short-covering, it is likely to be short-lived.
Fixed income investors should continue to keep the powder dry as market indicators points towards little or no room for actual rates to fall. While headline (policy announcement) rates may fall, borrowers are unlikely to access availability of funds at those rates.
Trade light as markets lack depth and bid/offer spreads are too wide for comfort. Maintain tail risk (Hacienda) hedges on your trades to protect your capital from sudden shocks.
A tutorial video on tail risk (Hacienda) hedges is here - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7AunGqXHBfk
Rear View Mirror
Let us assess what happened last week so we can guesstimate what to expect in the coming week.
The fall was led by the Bank Nifty whereas the Nifty brought up the rear. The US dollar index (DXY) firmed up and exerted pressure on emerging markets including India. A strong dollar dragged bullion and oil prices lower too.
The rupee fell against a firm dollar and that made banking stocks more volatile. Indian 10-year bond yields eased marginally, which cushioned declines in the Bank Nifty. The NSE's market capitalization rose mildly, which indicates mild optimism present in the markets even as headline indices remain under pressure. Market wide position limits (MWPL) rose routinely, but gains were marginal.
US markets rose and provided tail winds to our markets and limited the downsides.
Retail Risk Appetite
I use a simple yet highly accurate yardstick for measuring the conviction levels of retail traders – where are they deploying money. I measure what percentage of the turnover was contributed by the lower and higher risk instruments.
If they trade more of futures which require sizeable capital, their risk appetite is higher. Within the futures space, index futures are less volatile compared to stock futures. A higher footprint in stock futures shows higher aggression levels. Ditto for stock and index options.
Last week, this is what their footprint looked like (the numbers are average of all trading days of the week):
The high-risk and capital-intensive futures segment saw no change in turnover contribution for the week. In the relatively lower-risk options segment, turnover rose in the lowest-risk segment in the derivatives category – index options. These are also the least capital-intensive to trade.
Overall, risk appetite fell off the cliff in the derivatives segment.
Matryoshka Analysis
Let us peel layer after layer of statistical data to arrive at the core message of the markets.The first chart I share is the NSE advance- decline ratio. After the price itself, this indicator is the fastest (leading) indicator of which way winds are blowing. This simple yet accurate indicator computes the ratio of number of the rising stocks compared to falling stocks. As long as gaining stocks outnumber the losers, bulls are dominant. This metric is a gauge of the risk appetite of 'one marshmallow' traders. These are pure intraday traders.
The Nifty clocked smaller losses last week and the advance-decline ratio climbed marginally. At 1.11 (prior week 0.75) it shows 111 gainers for every 100 losers. That shows intraday traders shower improved optimism last week. As long as the reading stays above 1.0 sustainably, bulls still have a chance.
A tutorial video on the marshmallow theory in trading is here - www.youtube.com/watch?v=gFNKvtsCwFY
The second chart I share is the market wide position limits (MWPL). This measures the amount of exposure utilized by traders in the derivatives (F&O space as a component of the total exposure allowed by the regulator. This metric is a gauge of the risk appetite of 'two marshmallow' traders. These are deep-pocketed, high-conviction traders who roll over their trades to the next session/s.
The MWPL reading edged higher mildly, but was lower than the reading in the comparable week last month. That tells us optimism, though present in the market, was lower as traders were cautious about enhancing their exposure levels. A dedicated tutorial video on how to interpret MWPL data in more ways than one is available here - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t2qbGuk7qrI
The third chart I share is my in-house indicator 'impetus.' It measures the force in any price move. Last week both indices fell with rising impetus readings. That tells us the selling momentum was higher and traders willingly participated in the selling process.
Ideally prices and impetus readings must rise together to indicate a sustainable bull market.
The final chart I share is my in-house indicator 'LWTD.' It computes lift, weight, thrust and drag encountered by any security. These are four forces that any powered aircraft faces during flight; so, applying it to traded securities helps a trader estimate prevalent sentiments.
The Nifty clocked smaller losses last week and the LWTD reading was flat. That tells me fresh buying support is unlikely to change radically this week. Short-covering can cushion declines but it takes aggressive fresh buying to overcome overhead supply and trigger a new high.
A tutorial video on interpreting the LWTD indicator is here - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yag076z1ADk
Nifty's Verdict
The Nifty's weekly candlestick chart shows a third consecutive week of declines. The magnitude of the fall was, however, smaller. The peak made three weeks ago was marginally lower than the previous peak in September 2024. The support I specified last week at the 24,800 mark held, and that tells me bulls still have a fighting chance as long as they can defend this threshold.
The price is above the 25-week moving average, which is a proxy for the six-month average of an average investor. The medium-term outlook remains optimistic as long as this level holds. A fresh reliable upthrust is possible only after the 25,750 recent high is overcome forcefully. That will confirm that the overhead supply has been absorbed.
Your Call to Action
Watch the 24,800 level as a near-term support. Only a break out above the 25,750 level raises the possibility of the bull market resuming.
Last week, I estimated ranges between 58,075 – 55,450 and 25,750 – 24,550 on the Bank Nifty and Nifty respectively. Both indices traded within their specified resistance levels.
This week, I estimate ranges between 57,500 – 55,050 and 25,525 – 24,400 on the Bank Nifty and Nifty respectively.
Trade light with strict stop losses. Avoid trading counters with spreads wider than 8 ticks.
Have a profitable week.
Vijay L Bhambwani
Vijay is the CEO of www.Bsplindia.com a proprietary trading firm. He tweets at @vijaybhambwani