Bullish bets surge on Asian currencies as US-China thaw, trade deals rattle dollar: Reuters poll
By Roshan Thomas
(Reuters) - Investors piled up bullish bets on Asian currencies, including the yuan, as easing U.S.-China tariff tensions, new trade deals and a growing unease with U.S. policies prompted them to pull out of dollar assets, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday.
Investors sought long positions across the board, with those in the Taiwanese dollar and Philippine peso climbing to their highest since the end of 2020, according to the fortnightly poll of 10 respondents.
All responses were collected before a U.S. trade court on Wednesday blocked President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs, ruling he overstepped his authority by imposing duties on countries with trade surpluses against the United States.
Long bets on the Chinese yuan were the highest since October last year - a month before Donald Trump was re-elected as the President of the United States - buoyed by signs of renewed dialogue on trade between Washington and Beijing after months of posturing and threats. The yuan rose 1% this month.
Trump's tariff flip-flops and the mounting worries over a ballooning U.S. deficit have dented confidence in American assets, piling pressure on the dollar and driving investors toward Asian currencies.
"Asian currencies are likely to stay firm against the U.S. dollar (USD) due to diversification outflows from USD assets into Asia, with investors being concerned over U.S. trade policy and its fiscal trajectory given proposed tax cuts", said Wei Liang Chang, market strategist at DBS Bank.
Southeast Asian leaders have also reached an understanding that any bilateral agreements they might strike with the United States on trade tariffs would not harm the economies of fellow members.
Parisha Saimbi, an FX strategist at BNP Paribas, said Asian currencies would remain somewhat supported, helped by the U.S.-China de-escalation and bilateral trade deals being reached.
Meanwhile, the Taiwanese dollar has gained more than 6% in May to record its best ever monthly gain.
Taiwan's president dismissed "false" claims of currency talks with Washington earlier in May, after the Taiwan dollar spiked on speculation the U.S. had pushed for its appreciation, fuelling market jitters over potential FX policy shifts.
The South Korean won has also jumped more than 4% this month amid a broad dollar selloff, with Seoul officials confirming currency policy was on the table during recent talks with U.S. counterparts in Milan, fuelling speculation of joint FX moves.
Bullish bets returned to the Indonesian rupiah for the first time since October 2024, as some investors looked past ongoing fiscal concerns and bet on policy direction stabilising.
Elsewhere, bullish bets on the Malaysian ringgit and Thai baht rose to their strongest levels since October 2024.
The Asian currency positioning poll is focused on what analysts and fund managers believe are the current market positions in nine Asian emerging market currencies: the Chinese yuan, South Korean won, Singapore dollar, Indonesian rupiah, Taiwan dollar, Indian rupee, Philippine peso, Malaysian ringgit and the Thai baht.
The poll uses estimates of net long or short positions on a scale of minus 3 to plus 3. A score of plus 3 indicates the market is significantly long U.S. dollars.
The figures include positions held through non-deliverable forwards (NDFs).
The survey findings are provided below (positions in U.S. dollar versus each currency):
DATE USD/CNY USD/KRW USD/SGD USD/IDR USD/TWD USD/INR USD/MYR USD/PHP USD/THB
29-May-25 -0.67 -1.20 -1.34 -0.32 -1.50 -0.08 -1.04 -1.19 -1.14
15-May-25 0.00 -0.22 -0.54 0.70 -1.01 -0.19 -0.15 -0.68 -0.45
01-May-25 0.20 -0.06 -0.67 1.27 -0.53 -0.58 -0.40 -1.02 -0.61
17-Apr-25 0.57 0.19 -0.26 1.33 0.06 -0.20 0.04 -0.65 -0.30
03-Apr-25 0.47 1.13 0.54 1.20 1.14 0.01 0.33 -0.15 0.40
20-Mar-25 0.24 0.72 0.15 0.97 0.85 1.09 0.42 -0.13 0.08
06-Mar-25 0.77 1.00 0.34 1.36 0.71 1.47 0.45 0.20 0.48
20-Feb-25 0.88 0.83 0.31 1.06 0.59 1.22 0.37 0.31 0.02
06-Feb-25 1.15 1.01 0.86 1.25 1.14 1.98 0.62 0.93 0.23
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
31 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Idaho senators should protect school choice in ‘Big Beautiful Bill'
President Donald Trump's 'One Big Beautiful Bill' is now moving through the U.S. Senate, and conservative Christians are thrilled with many of the provisions that have been included so far. Although we don't yet know how the Senate version of the bill will shake out, it's worth noting that the version passed by the House late last month fulfills many of the pro-family policies made by the Trump administration. These include an expansion to the child tax credit for working families, tax benefits for adoptive parents and making permanent the Trump personal income and business tax cuts that fueled the above-average economic growth America experienced before the pandemic derailed international markets. However, one provision in particular that would improve educational access and outcomes for all students has flown under the radar so far. The provision would help more than one million students across the country access the educational support they need by creating special tax benefits for private donations to scholarship-granting organizations. It is modeled after the Educational Choice for Children Act, a federal proposal that has been introduced multiple times over the past several years and has earned the support of Sen. Jim Risch, R-Idaho, as well as other conservative stalwarts like Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Missouri, and Sen. Tim Scott, R-South Carolina. Scholarship-granting organizations already exist in many states, providing scholarships directly to students for tuition, tutoring, special needs services, education technology and curriculum materials. The provision offers both a supplement and alternative for students in states like Idaho, which has already begun moving down the road to more universal school choice programs by offering a new $5,000 refundable tax credit paid directly to the private school and homeschool families. Some parents — particularly within the homeschooling community — have voiced concerns that new school choice initiatives, such as Idaho's refundable tax credit, might jeopardize their educational freedom. After all, government money usually comes with strings attached. When you take the government cheese, you have to step into the regulatory mousetrap. And even if those restrictions aren't imposed right away, the door remains open for future state and federal mandates. Importantly, the ECCA provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill addresses these concerns by making sure no government funds go to the organizations, schools, or families involved — thereby avoiding another opportunity for government regulation. Instead, the ECCA establishes tax incentives for private donations to scholarship-granting organizations, which then award scholarships directly to students. Because this is private money — not government dollars — families can freely choose the best educational options for their children without government interference. All of this explains why the ECCA is supported by homeschool freedom advocates, including the Home School Legal Defense Association. In fact, the ECCA model helps ensure that parents remain in control of their children's education, consistent with biblical principles like Ephesians 6:4, which commands fathers to bring up their children in the discipline and instruction of the Lord. Not only would the ECCA provision in the 'One Big Beautiful Bill' help parents fulfill this biblical responsibility, but it would also expand educational opportunities for children currently stuck in failing public schools, no matter the state in which they live. Nationwide school choice which empowers parents while also protecting educational freedom is a high priority for Trump — and it should be just as high a priority for our legislative branch as they set education policy. With that in mind, we call on the U.S. Senate to keep the ECCA provision in whichever version of the 'One Big Beautiful Bill' they adopt. Our children — and their families — deserve it. Blaine Conzatti is the president of Idaho Family Policy Center.
Yahoo
31 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Iran says it obtained sensitive Israeli nuclear documents
DUBAI (Reuters) -Iranian intelligence agencies have obtained a large trove of sensitive Israeli documents, some related to the nuclear plans and facilities of Tehran's arch enemy, Iran's state media reported on Saturday. There was no immediate official comment from Israel and it was not clear whether the report was linked to a reported hacking of an Israeli nuclear research centre last year that Tehran is choosing to divulge now amid heightened tensions over its nuclear programme. "Although the operation to obtain the documents was carried out some time ago, the sheer volume of materials and the need to transport them safely into Iran necessitated a news blackout to ensure they reached the designated protected locations," state-run PressTV reported, quoting unnamed sources. "(Sources familiar with the matter) also noted that the abundance of documents is so vast that reviewing them, along with viewing images and videos, has consumed a significant amount of time," PressTV added, without giving details of the documents. In 2018, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that Israeli agents had seized a huge "archive" of Iranian documents showing Tehran had done more nuclear work than previously known. U.S President Donald Trump has threatened Iran with bombing if Tehran did not come to an agreement with Washington over its nuclear programme. But Trump in April reportedly blocked a planned Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear sites in favour of negotiating a deal with Tehran. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Wednesday that abandoning uranium enrichment was "100%" against the country's interests, rejecting a central U.S. demand in talks to resolve a decades-long dispute over Tehran's nuclear ambitions.
Epoch Times
34 minutes ago
- Epoch Times
Musk Mulls New Political Party Amid Feud With Trump
Elon Musk is considering launching a new political party in the wake of his public fallout with President Donald Trump over a major Republican tax and spending bill. In a series of social media
