Twelve day Middle East war shows how 'normal' the unthinkable has become
For decades, the idea of a U.S.-Iran conflict raised the specter of World War III. Now Israel has attacked, the U.S. has joined in and the Islamic Republic just aimed its retaliation at the biggest American military base in the Middle East.
All of that happened in the last 24 hours, following an equally chaotic 11 days. But on Tuesday morning, consultants in the Qatari capital and financiers in Dubai went to work as normal. Oil fell back to where it was when Israel first struck Iran on June 13; the S&P 500 ended the day higher than it began.
The reaction reveals the degree to which the unthinkable has become mundane in a region upended by Hamas's attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, and a broader sense that seemingly seismic events are quickly superseded by the next ones.
But the ructions that have torn through the Middle East aren't likely to fully reveal their impact for years to come.
While Iran is weakened and Israel triumphant, there are some concerning omens. Israel's devastation of Gaza, the decimation of Iranian proxy militant group Hezbollah in Lebanon and last year's swift fall of Iranian ally Bashar al-Assad in Syria have all left deep scars.
Mourners attend the funeral of victims of Sunday's suicide bombing at the Mar Elias Church in Damascus. |
REUTERS
"Iran isn't finished as a regional power,' said Hal Brands, a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and a former Pentagon official. "It's a big country with a lot of residual capabilities, but we're going to see a significant regional shakeup.'
For now, many in the region just took it in their stride. Some expats in Doha said the strikes were so well telegraphed, it was as if they knew what was coming. Others panicked and took shelter in basements, closing curtains and blackout blinds in case windows shattered. Many couldn't resist going outside to watch the missile trails.
Once the choreographed Iranian response to U.S. strikes on its nuclear program was over, there was some worry and confusion because of a lack of information. But by Tuesday morning, it was business as usual after U.S. President Donald Trump declared a ceasefire had been agreed.
Trump went as far as thanking Iran for "giving us early notice,' ensuring the base was evacuated and there were no casualties. The Qatar Stock Exchange closed almost 2% higher. Meanwhile, energy exports have continued without interruption.
"It's surreal how quickly we revert to 'normal' life and that is what had happened by the time dawn broke this morning,' said Charlie Eastwood, a U.K. citizen who has lived and worked in Qatar for 13 years, "with the additional and even more surreal news that, honor clearly having been satisfied, a ceasefire had been agreed.'
Emergency workers recover a body from the site of an Iranian missile attack on a residential building in Beersheeba, Israel, on Tuesday. |
Daniel Berehulak / The New York Times
Beyond the Middle East, a world also dealing with Russia's war in Ukraine, Trump's trade tariffs and tension with China is more inured to turmoil and unpredictability.
Late Monday night, Trump wrote on Truth Social that the war "could have gone on for years, and destroyed the entire Middle East, but it didn't, and never will!'
Indeed, the Iranian response demonstrated "calculated thinking,' according to Bader Al-Saif, assistant professor at Kuwait University and an associate fellow at Chatham House. Getting embroiled in a conflict with the U.S. would be "the kiss of death for Iran and they know that,' he said.
But there were other harbingers of the essential flimsiness of the ceasefire. In between Trump's declaration and Israeli Prime Minster Benjamin Netanyahu's confirmation, Israel and Iran struck each other. A few hours later, the Israel Defense Forces said they had identified Iranian missiles headed toward Israel, which Tehran denied.
A man clears broken glass from a sidewalk near the site of an Iranian missile attack in Beersheeba, Israel, on Tuesday. |
Daniel Berehulak / The New York Times
There is also Israel's own track record when it comes to ceasefires. It's been accused of not honoring them in Gaza and Lebanon. Netanyahu's government is unlikely to be willing to countenance any threat emanating from Iran, and has already said it will respond with force to any breaches of the truce.
Some ministers — and even Netanyahu himself — have already floated the prospect of regime change. The echo of previous Middle East conflicts and uprisings that begin in triumph but end in sectarian violence and chaos resounds.
Israel's attack on Iran also helped turn attention away from its war in Gaza against Hamas, designated a terrorist organization by the U.S. and Europe. Israeli forces have killed tens of thousands of people, destroyed most of the enclave and sparked a hunger crisis.
If the Iran conflict is brought to a simmer, Europe — which expressed support for strikes on nuclear targets — may go back to threatening the Netanyahu government with trade sanctions over its prosecution of the war.
People inspect the damage at the site of a reported suicide attack at the Saint Elias church in Damascus on Sunday. |
AFP-JIJI
In Gaza, around the time Israel was agreeing to the ceasefire with Iran, its forces opened fire toward hundreds of people waiting for aid, killing at least 25, the Associated Press reported. The same day, the U.N. — which Israel has blocked from administering aid — condemned the country's "weaponization of food.'
Leaders from Qatar to Iraq warned that the Israeli and U.S. strikes could spark regional unrest. On Sunday, as U.S. missiles rained down on Iran's nuclear sites, a suicide bombing that killed dozens in a Damascus church offered a grim reminder of what that instability can look like.
And then there are Iran's nuclear aspirations. The U.S. bombed three key sites on Sunday, including the underground enrichment facility at Fordow. Trump claimed they had been "totally obliterated,' but two days later the International Atomic Energy Agency still doesn't know the location of Iran's near bomb-grade uranium.
That leaves Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei a choice that many autocrats must be weighing.
One option is to pursue the bomb with great speed — if that's still possible — and become not just untouchable but even admired by Trump, like North Korea's Kim Jong Un. The alternative is to give up the nuclear program, come in from the cold, and risk suffering the fate of Libya's deceased dictator Moammar Qaddafi.
"The Iranian nuclear program has taken a major hit, but hasn't been totally destroyed,' said Aaron David Miller, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a former State Department Middle East negotiator under former U.S. Presidents Clinton and Bush. "They're going to want to keep the option of enrichment and potential weaponization open. This is a long game.'
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Japan Times
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Japan Times
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Israel weighs Hamas offer of 60-day Gaza truce and hostage release
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