Here's why James Hagens is declining in the NHL Draft as Matthew Schaefer moves up
What was once the clear top prospect of the 2025 NHL Draft, James Hagens' stock has dropped—and the New York Islanders are faced with a franchise-altering decision. Following an MVP performance at the 2024 U18 World Championship and a prohibitive USHL season, he was a strong favorite to be taken No.
1 overall. Then why is he no longer at the top of most draft boards?
Concerns about James Hagens' NHL game change
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For all his bloodlines and offensive skill, NHL scouts have started to wonder how James Hagens' game will translate to the next level. He's a bit undersized at barely 5-foot-11 and lacks a physical component. Scouts have noted stretches of his NCAA season where he vanished in even-strength play, failing to get inside versus more physical defenders and landing with a less-than-expected goal total.
James Hagens, born-and-raised Long Islander and lifelong Isles supporter, would be the sentimental choice. Comparisons to Tavares are unavoidable. But sentiment won't win playoff series — and currently, scouts overwhelmingly think defenseman Matthew Schaefer is the best player in the class.
Matthew Schaefer, a 6-foot-2 blueliner with exceptional skating and excellent two-way skills, is considered a potential top-pairing NHL blueliner of the future.
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Even in struggling with injuries this year, he dictated games on the back end with a physicality and composure Hagens has not yet matched.
'Schaefer is the only truly special player in this draft,' a scout told The Athletic. 'Other than maybe Misa, Schaefer is in a tier of his own.'
The Islanders seem not to be in rebuild mode or fighting for survival anymore. With a new arena, playoff seasoning, and sound ownership, they can't miss on a franchise defenseman like Schaefer.
'They'd be going way off the board in the eyes of most teams if they took Hagens,' said one NHL scout.
Also read:
James Hagens continues to shine despite quieter season at Boston College
The bottom line
James Hagens is still one of the best-scoring players in this class. But for a top-six team drafting first overall — especially one that has true playoff hopes — the selection has to be made with an eye toward constructing a championship core. That choice, according to almost everyone in scouting, is Matthew Schaefer.
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