Consumer confidence up despite inflation worries
Photo:
RNZ
Consumer confidence is improving but the economic outlook remains soft, with inflation expectations rising to the highest level in more than two years.
The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence lifted six points to 98.8 in June, following last month's drop to 92.9.
ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner said a number of key indicators remained in negative territory, including the proportion of households who thought it was a good time to buy a major household appliance, at -7.
In addition, annual inflation expectations rose slightly to 4.9 percent - the highest level since April 2023.
"A few potential explanations seem possible," she said, including global tariff noise and concerns about energy prices.
She said the increase was in line with food price inflation, which was running at 4.4 percent.
"Household electricity prices are also rising as higher lines charges are passed on."
However, she said a net 20 percent of consumers expected to be better off this time next year.
"The economy is recovering. It's just taking a little longer than expected.
"Households might be sceptical but domestic inflation is on the retreat, and that should lay the path for the RBNZ [Reserve Bank] to ultimately be able to shore up the economic recovery with a little more monetary easing."
Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero
,
a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
RNZ News
22 minutes ago
- RNZ News
Raft of customer complaints following faulty Watercare metres
politics local council 26 minutes ago The watchdog that settles disputes about essential services like electricity and gas believes it should be mandatory for water suppliers to sign up to the scheme. Utilities Disputes is an independent disputes resolution service; its compulsary for gas and electricity companies and broadband installers to be part of the scheme. But it's voluntary for water suppliers. It comes after Checkpoint revealed 13,000 Watercare smart metres are not working properly, leaving some customers struggling to pay big catch up bills and frustrated by Watercare's service. Watercare is a voluntary member of Utilities Disputes, which means it has to refer any complaints to the service, customers cant make complaints directly. Utilities Disputes Commissioner Neil Mallon spoke to Lisa Owen.
RNZ News
an hour ago
- RNZ News
Uncertainty for meat workers as plants grapple with low livestock numbers
Photo: Meat Industry Association Meat plants across Aotearoa are struggling to match low volumes of livestock coming through with staffing levels. New Zealand's national sheep flock and dairy herd have continued to decline in recent years , impacting the flow of livestock into meat works. However, this has also created a competitive environment for farmers, some of whom were earning record prices for their stock, exacerbating the challenge of profitability for meat companies. Consistently declining livestock numbers saw red meat farmer-owned cooperative Alliance Group close its Smithfield processing plant in Timaru last year. The former Smithfield meat processing plant site, Timaru. Photo: RNZ / Tim Brown Major red meat processor, Silver Fern Farms' chief executive, Dan Boulton told the Primary Industries New Zealand Summit in Ōtautahi this week, that the organisation was pulling thousands of seasonal workers off the chain to match capacity with the supply of livestock. "We're holding on tight. We're having to reduce capacity," Boulton said. "We have about 3,000 of our workers on seasonal layoff right now, which normally would be running full steam as we work through the back end of the cow season." Taking capacity off, particularly for night shift workers, helped to reduce and control operating costs, but created issues of uncertainty. "We're trying to attract workers into our sector and that uncertainty around [the] workforce is a real challenge." He said the beef kill was down 4 percent in 2024 and the lamb culls down 9 percent, creating procurement tension among the different companies. "Clearly a big challenge, and so on one hand we've got fantastic market returns and that's bringing profitability back into the sector, but we can't underestimate some of the livestock volumes and where they've landed particularly in the last 18 months. Photo: RNZ / Nate McKinnon "Those are some big adjustments that the New Zealand processing sector has to make. So clearly, we have a capacity imbalance, that's through the media and that's creating a little bit of uncertainty." Through 2024 Silver Fern Farms recorded a $21.8 million after-tax loss , following a $24.4m loss in 2023. Competitor, co-op Alliance Group reported an after-tax loss of $95.8m for the year ended September, just over half of which accounted for the redundancies associated with Smithfield's closure. Meat Workers Union national secretary Daryl Carran said company profits were being affected by the record prices farmers were getting for livestock because the environment was very competitive. He said the low livestock numbers in farming, which the union had warned meat companies about for years, were particularly acute for larger companies. "Every year we're losing sheep farmers." Curran said realigning capacity with the reducing livestock numbers was vital to the sector's sustainability. "We've recently told one company to rationalise capacity because the numbers just aren't there anymore. "We have too many sites considering the stock we have available." Curran said further plant closures were likely in future, and meat companies should work together to address the processing network. StatsNZ figures showed the national sheep flock had fallen 21 percent in the past decade to 23.6m sheep. The ratio of 22 sheep per New Zealander in the 1980s was now down to 4.5. Dairy cattle also fell by about 13 percent or 860,000 over the decade with the national herd now 5.8m. However, beef cattle numbers were holding steady at 3.7m. Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero , a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.
RNZ News
an hour ago
- RNZ News
Taxes will have to increase in 2060 to cope with aging population, government spending
The IRD has warned government spending needs to change or taxes will need to increase in the future. Photo: RNZ Inland Revenue is warning that unless what the government spends its money on changes, taxes will need to increase in the coming years to cope with an ageing population. It is currently seeking submissions on its latest long-term insights briefing. It notes that in the coming years, if the current settings are maintained, government spending as a proportion of the economy will rise. "A core driver of these fiscal pressures is that New Zealand's population is ageing." By 2060, a quarter of the population will be older than 65. "This means that the amount the government needs to spend on superannuation and health care will increase if the government maintains current policy settings. "In its last Long-term Fiscal Statement, the Treasury predicted that government expenditure will exceed government revenue by 13.3 percent of GDP by 2061 if the government takes no response to rising fiscal pressures," IRD said. That would mean either that existing taxes would need to be levied at a higher rate - such as higher levels of income tax or GST - or there would need to be new taxes implemented. It said New Zealand taxed a more limited set of capital gains than most other OECD countries. It could be possible to broaden that scope. "The absence of a general approach to taxing capital gains can provide an incentive for individuals to reduce their tax liability by undertaking activities that are not taxed rather than those that are taxed. "This can reduce government's ability to raise more revenue in a way that is progressive." It pointed to an estimate for a Tax Working Group report in 2019 that, if a capital gains tax took effect from the 2022 tax year, it would raise about $3 billion in the 2026 tax year. Revenue would increase over time. IRD said this was in line with revenue raised in other countries from capital gains taxes. "Revenue from capital gains could therefore make a meaningful contribution to addressing long-term fiscal challenges. "However [as noted above] the last Treasury LTFS projected an operating deficit of 13.3 percent of GDP by 2061 under current settings. "Therefore, even with more comprehensive taxation of capital gains other tax or expenditure measures would be needed in the longer term. "Therefore, Inland Revenue considers that it is also important to consider how to increase the flexibility of the tax system to changing revenue needs." It said capital gains taxes could also have relatively high compliance costs. Inland Revenue said GST was a substantial source of tax revenue. But if it were to be increased, there would be concerns about the effect on lower-income households. While wealthier households pay more GST overall, poorer households spend more of their money on GST. IRD said GST could be applied at a lower rate on some goods and services that were bought by lower-income households, or there could be assistance via the welfare system to help those households. "Several international and New Zealand-focused studies have shown that using cash transfers is a more cost-effective way to target assistance to lower-income groups compared to applying lower rates to certain goods and services. "Several countries have implemented permanent GST-offset schemes for this reason." The report used modelling of GST at 18 percent. It also considered how other taxes such as payroll tax, wealth tax, inheritance tax, land and property tax could be used to add further tax bases to the New Zealand system. But it said there were difficult trade-offs with each of these. "Payroll taxes provide a means of shifting the balance of taxation away from capital income and onto labour income, but they are likely to have some disadvantages relative to GST and income tax. "Wealth taxes are likely to impose higher distortionary costs than a broad-based income tax, and they face similar challenges to those that would make an idealised income tax that includes accrued capital gains impractical. "Inheritance taxes are likely to have similar distortionary costs to income taxes when people are intentional donors, but they will have much lower distortionary costs when people are unintentional donors. "Land taxes are widely seen as one of the least distortive taxes, and they impose fewer distortionary costs than property taxes or stamp duties. "However, they would have a significant impact on certain groups. As with any tax, providing preferential tax treatment to certain groups or in certain situations would tend to increase efficiency costs and reduce horizontal equity on some margins." IRD said this underscored the importance of income tax and GST being designed in a way that was as efficient and fair as possible while having the flexibility to adjust to changing revenue needs. "New Zealand faces difficult choices in designing a durable tax system in the face of long-term fiscal challenges. "In Inland Revenue's view, a priority for future work should be on how to make New Zealand's main bases of income tax and consumption tax more flexible to changing revenue needs over time." It said, with different personal and company tax rates there was an incentive for people to "shelter" their income in companies. "This incentive is likely to increase the wider gap between top personal tax rates and the company rate, however, in the context of rising fiscal pressures, a system that requires alignment of the company rate and top personal rate is unlikely to be a durable tax system." Economist Shamubeel Eaqub said IRD had a clear message that either tax rates would need to increase, or the tax base - or both. "There are some difficult choices to be had in the future, if spending choices don't change then our revenue choices have to. "And we can either tax more using the same instruments that we have on the same bases that we have or we can increase the bases, and there are no easy answers. "There are always trade-offs, there will be winners and losers. And we're going to have to make a considered decision of what we're going to do - no tax is easy. "No one likes paying tax. I think it's about finding the least disruptive system given the public services that we want." Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero , a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.
