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Curiosity, Healthy Friction Fuel Loyalty: Forrester Exec Shares Views

Curiosity, Healthy Friction Fuel Loyalty: Forrester Exec Shares Views

Forbes15-04-2025

MIAMI - MAY 20: Alain Filiz shows off some of his credit cards as he pays for items at Lorenzo's ... More Italian Market on May 20, 2009 in Miami, Florida. Members of Congress today passed a bill placing new restrictions on companies that issues credit. The vote follows the Senate passage of the bill, which now heads for President Obama's promised signature. The bill will curb sudden interest rate increases and hidden fees, requiring card companies to tell customers of rate increases 45 days in advance. It will also make it harder for people aged below 21 to be issued credit cards. (Photo by)
In the loyalty industry, change is the only constant—and we may be standing at the edge of the biggest transformation yet. Loyalty programs are no longer just about points and perks. According to John Pedini, Principal Analyst at Forrester, they're becoming one of the most powerful platforms for emotional connection, data strategy, and long-term competitive advantage.
In a recent conversation, Pedini and I unpacked what's changing in the loyalty landscape and why brands that lead with empathy, curiosity, and trust are best positioned to win in the years ahead.
'Loyalty is, at its core, a relationship-building platform,' Pedini said. 'It's always been the most efficient way to get consumers to raise their hand and say, 'Yes, I want a deeper connection with your brand.''
But as he explained, the traditional model—built on transactional incentives—is no longer enough. 'The old playbook was simple: get someone to spend more and reward them just enough to keep them engaged. But now? That's table stakes. The brands that are winning are engineering emotional loyalty into their programs.'
This evolution is urgent. Consumers aren't loyal to brands anymore—they're loyal to value. And value, increasingly, means relevance, convenience, and experience.
Pedini sees a clear gap between brands that show curiosity about their customers and those that don't.
'I sign up for programs every week,' he said. 'And I'm often surprised by the lack of curiosity. Brands ask for your name, email, birthday—and then that's it. They rely solely on inferred behavior to personalize the experience.'
The better approach? Ask smart, intentional questions upfront. Brands that build customer profiles through active engagement—not passive data collection—are better equipped to deliver personalized experiences that feel like a service, not a sales pitch.
'Relevance is everything,' Pedini noted. 'It's the bridge between data and emotional connection.'
When brands get it right, emotional loyalty pays off in spades. As Pedini explained, 'There's a difference between a transactional scan-and-go program and one that builds a sense of belonging. When you can tap into emotion, that's when a customer might drive past a competitor or pay a little more—because the relationship feels worth it.'
Soft benefits—like early access, exclusive content, or even recognition—can create opportunity cost, making it harder for consumers to walk away.
'A well-run loyalty program builds healthy friction into the experience,' he said. 'You want just enough urgency and exclusivity that people stay engaged, but not so much that it feels manipulative.'
While airlines often get credit for engineering loyalty through soft benefits like boarding priority and lounge access, Pedini pointed to Chick-fil-A as a less obvious—but highly effective—example.
'They've built a program that's simple, seamless, and highly intentional,' he said. 'There's clarity in the benefits and a focus on making the customer feel understood.'
Contrast that with brands that offer vague or open-ended rewards. 'When there's no urgency, and the customer can't clearly see what they're earning or why it matters, the program becomes forgettable. That's not loyalty—that's data collection.'
I asked Pedini if brands like Apple or Ben & Jerry's—those with cult-like followings—need a formal loyalty program. His answer: not necessarily, but they absolutely think in terms of loyalty.
'Apple's packaging tells you everything,' he said. 'You've already paid. They don't have to impress you. But the moment you open the box, the care they put into it proves how much they value the customer experience.'
That, Pedini argues, is loyalty. It may not involve points or tiers, but it's a commitment to deepening a relationship at every touchpoint. 'Not every brand needs a programmatic approach. But every brand needs a strategy for building emotional connection.'
With AI accelerating the personalization frontier, loyalty is becoming a more powerful tool than ever. Pedini believes the future lies in programs that adapt in real time—serving offers, content, and experiences that reflect each customer's intent and behavior.
'AI lets us move from generic blasts to one-to-one interactions,' he said. 'But only if the brand has done the work to understand the customer. That starts with a loyalty strategy grounded in curiosity, trust, and respect.'
The next generation of loyalty leaders will think beyond rewards. They'll design relationships—ones that are reciprocal, relevant, and rooted in the customer's world, not the brands.

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U.S. FDA Approves NUBEQA ® (darolutamide) to Treat Patients with Metastatic Castration-Sensitive Prostate Cancer
U.S. FDA Approves NUBEQA ® (darolutamide) to Treat Patients with Metastatic Castration-Sensitive Prostate Cancer

Business Wire

time16 minutes ago

  • Business Wire

U.S. FDA Approves NUBEQA ® (darolutamide) to Treat Patients with Metastatic Castration-Sensitive Prostate Cancer

WHIPPANY, N.J.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Bayer announced today that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved its oral androgen receptor inhibitor (ARi) NUBEQA ® (darolutamide) for the treatment of adult patients with metastatic castration-sensitive prostate cancer (mCSPC), which is also known as metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer (mHSPC). The approval is based on positive results from the pivotal Phase III ARANOTE trial, which demonstrated a significant reduction of 46% in the risk of radiographic progression or death (rPFS) for those treated with NUBEQA plus androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) compared to placebo plus ADT (hazard ratio [HR] 0.54; 95% CI 0.41-0.71; p<0.0001). 1 The randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled Phase III ARANOTE trial was designed to assess the efficacy and safety of NUBEQA plus ADT in patients with mCSPC. 1 A total of 669 patients were randomized 2:1 to receive either 600 mg of NUBEQA (N=446) or placebo (N=223) twice daily in addition to ADT. 1 NUBEQA is indicated in the U.S. for the treatment of adult patients with mCSPC, both with and without docetaxel, and for the treatment of adult patients with non-metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (nmCRPC). 2 'Clinical data from the ARANOTE trial supporting this new regimen showed that NUBEQA plus ADT demonstrated powerful efficacy in men with mCSPC,' said Fred Saad, M.D., Professor and Chairman of Surgery and Director of Genitourinary Oncology at the University of Montreal Hospital Center (CHUM) and principal investigator of the ARANOTE trial. 'Today's approval further expands physicians' options for using NUBEQA with and without docetaxel in this setting, providing a potential new choice for patients.' Prostate cancer is the second most common cancer in men and the fifth most common cause of cancer death in men worldwide. 3 In 2020, an estimated 1.4 million men worldwide were diagnosed with prostate cancer, including nearly 300,000 in the U.S., and about 375,000 men died from the disease worldwide. 4,5 Prostate cancer diagnoses are projected to increase to 2.9 million worldwide by 2040. 6 'This approval, which is supported by strong clinical data, reaffirms NUBEQA as an important therapy for men with prostate cancer and underscores our commitment to delivering meaningful outcomes for patients and their families,' said Christine Roth, Executive Vice President, Global Product Strategy and Commercialization and Member of the Pharmaceuticals Leadership Team at Bayer. 'We thank the scientists, doctors, patients and their families who made it possible to provide this new treatment option for metastatic castration-sensitive prostate cancer.' Results from the Phase III ARANOTE trial, presented at the 2024 European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) Congress and published in The Journal of Clinical Oncolog y. 1 Results of the radiographic progression-free survival (rPFS) analysis were consistent across prespecified subgroups, including a 40% risk reduction (HR 0.60, 95% CI: 0.44-0.80) with NUBEQA plus ADT in patients with high-volume mCSPC and a 70% risk reduction (HR 0.30, 95% CI: 0.15-0.60) in patients with low-volume disease. 1 The results were consistent with the established safety profile of NUBEQA. Rates of serious adverse events were similar between the treatment arms (24% for NUBEQA plus ADT compared to 24% for placebo plus ADT). 1,2 Discontinuation due to treatment-emergent adverse events (TEAEs) was 6% for patients treated with NUBEQA plus ADT compared to 9% in patients receiving placebo plus ADT. 1,2 About the ARANOTE Trial 7 The randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled Phase III ARANOTE trial study assessed the efficacy and safety of NUBEQA plus ADT in patients with mCSPC. A total of 669 patients were randomized to receive 600 mg of NUBEQA twice daily or matching placebo in addition to ADT. The primary endpoint was rPFS, measured as time from randomization to date of first documented radiographic progressive disease or death due to any cause, whichever occurs first. About NUBEQA ® (darolutamide) 2 NUBEQA ® (darolutamide) is an androgen receptor inhibitor (ARi) with a distinct chemical structure that competitively inhibits androgen binding, AR nuclear translocation, and AR-mediated transcription. NUBEQA was developed jointly by Bayer and Orion Corporation, a globally operating Finnish pharmaceutical company. NUBEQA is an androgen receptor inhibitor indicated for the treatment of adult patients with: Non-metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (nmCRPC) Metastatic castration-sensitive prostate cancer (mCSPC) Metastatic castration-sensitive prostate cancer (mCSPC) in combination with docetaxel IMPORTANT SAFETY INFORMATION Warnings & Precautions Ischemic Heart Disease – Ischemic heart disease, including fatal cases, occurred in patients receiving NUBEQA. In a pooled analysis of ARAMIS and ARANOTE, ischemic heart disease occurred in 3.4% of patients receiving NUBEQA and 2.2% receiving placebo, including Grade 3-4 events in 1.4% and 0.3%, respectively. Ischemic events led to death in 0.4% of patients receiving NUBEQA and 0.4% receiving placebo. In ARASENS, ischemic heart disease occurred in 3.2% of patients receiving NUBEQA with docetaxel and 2% receiving placebo with docetaxel, including Grade 3-4 events in 1.3% and 1.1%, respectively. Ischemic events led to death in 0.3% of patients receiving NUBEQA with docetaxel and 0% receiving placebo with docetaxel. Monitor for signs and symptoms of ischemic heart disease. Optimize management of cardiovascular risk factors, such as hypertension, diabetes, or dyslipidemia. Discontinue NUBEQA for Grade 3-4 ischemic heart disease. Seizure – Seizure occurred in patients receiving NUBEQA. In a pooled analysis of ARAMIS and ARANOTE, Grade 1-3 seizure occurred in 0.2% of patients receiving NUBEQA. Seizure occurred from 261 to 665 days after initiation of NUBEQA. In ARASENS, seizure occurred in 0.8% of patients receiving NUBEQA with docetaxel, including two Grade 3 events. Seizure occurred from 38 to 1754 days after initiation of NUBEQA. It is unknown whether anti-epileptic medications will prevent seizures with NUBEQA. Advise patients of the risk of developing a seizure while receiving NUBEQA and of engaging in any activity where sudden loss of consciousness could cause harm to themselves or others. Consider discontinuation of NUBEQA in patients who develop a seizure during treatment. Embryo-Fetal Toxicity – The safety and efficacy of NUBEQA have not been established in females. NUBEQA can cause fetal harm and loss of pregnancy. Advise males with female partners of reproductive potential to use effective contraception during treatment with NUBEQA and for 1 week after the last dose. Adverse Reactions In ARAMIS, serious adverse reactions occurred in 25% of patients receiving NUBEQA and in 20% of patients receiving placebo. Serious adverse reactions in ≥1% of patients who received NUBEQA included urinary retention, pneumonia, and hematuria. Fatal adverse reactions occurred in 3.9% of patients receiving NUBEQA and 3.2% of patients receiving placebo. Fatal adverse reactions that occurred in ≥2 patients who received NUBEQA included death (0.4%), cardiac failure (0.3%), cardiac arrest (0.2%), general physical health deterioration (0.2%), and pulmonary embolism (0.2%). The most common (>2% with a ≥2% increase compared to placebo) adverse reactions, including laboratory test abnormalities, were increased AST (23%), decreased neutrophil count (20%), fatigue (16%), increased bilirubin (16%), pain in extremity (6%), and rash (4%). Clinically relevant adverse reactions occurring in 2% or more of patients treated with NUBEQA included ischemic heart disease (4%) and heart failure (2.1%). In ARANOTE, serious adverse reactions occurred in 24% of patients receiving NUBEQA. Serious adverse reactions in ≥1% of patients who received NUBEQA included pneumonia (2%), urinary tract infection (1.8%), musculoskeletal pain (1.6%), hemorrhage (1.6%), arrhythmias (1.3%), and spinal cord compression (1.1%). Fatal adverse reactions occurred in 4.7% of patients receiving NUBEQA and those that occurred in ≥2 patients included sepsis (1.1%), craniocerebral injury (0.4%), and myocardial infarction (0.4%). The most common (≥10% with a ≥2% increase compared to placebo) adverse reaction is urinary tract infection (12%). The most common laboratory test abnormalities (≥15% with a ≥5% increase over placebo) are increased AST (32%), increased ALT (28%), increased bilirubin (17%), and decreased neutrophil count (16%). Clinically relevant adverse reactions in <10% of patients who received NUBEQA included arrhythmia (8.8%), pneumonia (3.6%), and myocardial infarction (0.7%). In ARASENS, serious adverse reactions occurred in 45% of patients receiving NUBEQA with docetaxel. Serious adverse reactions in ≥2% of patients who received NUBEQA with docetaxel included febrile neutropenia (6%), neutrophil count decreased (2.8%), musculoskeletal pain (2.6%) and pneumonia (2.6%). Fatal adverse reactions occurred in 4% of patients receiving NUBEQA with docetaxel. Fatal adverse reactions in ≥2 patients who received NUBEQA included COVID-19/COVID-19 pneumonia (0.8%), myocardial infarction (0.3%), and sudden death (0.3%). The most common (≥10% with a ≥2% increase over placebo with docetaxel) adverse reactions are constipation (23%), rash (20%), decreased appetite (19%), hemorrhage (18%), increased weight (18%), and hypertension (14%). The most common laboratory test abnormalities (≥30%) are anemia (72%), hyperglycemia (57%), decreased lymphocyte count (52%), decreased neutrophil count (49%), increased AST (40%), increased ALT (37%), and hypocalcemia (31%). Clinically relevant adverse reactions in <10% of patients who received NUBEQA with docetaxel included fractures (8%), ischemic heart disease (3.2%), seizures (0.6%), and drug-induced liver injury (0.3%). Drug Interactions Effect of Other Drugs on NUBEQA – Concomitant use of NUBEQA with a combined P-gp and strong or moderate CYP3A4 inducer decreases darolutamide exposure which may decrease NUBEQA activity. Avoid concomitant use of NUBEQA with combined P-gp and strong or moderate CYP3A4 inducers. Concomitant use of NUBEQA with a combined P-gp and strong CYP3A4 inhibitor increases darolutamide exposure which may increase the risk of NUBEQA adverse reactions. Monitor patients more frequently for NUBEQA adverse reactions and modify NUBEQA dosage as needed. Effects of NUBEQA on Other Drugs – NUBEQA is an inhibitor of BCRP transporter. Concomitant use of NUBEQA increases the AUC and C max of BCRP substrates, which may increase the risk of BCRP substrate-related toxicities. Avoid concomitant use with drugs that are BCRP substrates where possible. If used together, monitor patients more frequently for adverse reactions, and consider dose reduction of the BCRP substrate drug. NUBEQA is an inhibitor of OATP1B1 and OATP1B3 transporters. Concomitant use of NUBEQA may increase the plasma concentrations of OATP1B1 or OATP1B3 substrates. Monitor patients more frequently for adverse reactions of these drugs and consider dose reduction while patients are taking NUBEQA. Review the Prescribing Information of drugs that are BCRP, OATP1B1, and OATP1B3 substrates when used concomitantly with NUBEQA. For important risk and use information about NUBEQA, please see the accompanying full Prescribing Information. About Metastatic Castration-Sensitive Prostate Cancer Prostate cancer is the second most common cancer in men and the fifth most common cause of cancer death in men worldwide. 3 In 2020, an estimated 1.4 million men worldwide were diagnosed with prostate cancer, including nearly 300,000 men in the U.S., and nearly 375,000 men died from the disease worldwide. 4,5 At the time of diagnosis, most men have localized prostate cancer, in which their cancer is confined to the prostate gland and can be treated with curative surgery or radiotherapy. Upon relapse when the disease will metastasize or spread, androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) is the cornerstone of treatment for this castration-sensitive, or hormone-sensitive, disease. Approximately 10% of men will already present with metastatic castration-sensitive prostate cancer (mCSPC), also known as metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer (mHSPC), when first diagnosed. 8,9,10 Men with mCSPC will start their treatment with hormone therapy, such as ADT, an androgen receptor inhibitor (ARi) plus ADT, or a combination of the chemotherapy docetaxel and ADT. Despite this treatment, most men with mCSPC will eventually progress to castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC), which is associated with limited survival. 11,12 About Oncology at Bayer Bayer is committed to delivering science for a better life by advancing a portfolio of innovative treatments. The oncology franchise at Bayer includes six marketed products and several other assets in various stages of clinical development. Together, these products reflect the company's approach to research, which prioritizes targets and pathways with the potential to impact the way that cancer is treated. About Bayer Bayer is a global enterprise with core competencies in the life science fields of health care and nutrition. In line with its mission, 'Health for all, Hunger for none,' the company's products and services are designed to help people and the planet thrive by supporting efforts to master the major challenges presented by a growing and aging global population. Bayer is committed to driving sustainable development and generating a positive impact with its businesses. At the same time, the Group aims to increase its earning power and create value through innovation and growth. The Bayer brand stands for trust, reliability and quality throughout the world. In fiscal 2023, the Group employed around 100,000 people and had sales of 47.6 billion euros. R&D expenses before special items amounted to 5.8 billion euros. For more information, go to © 2025 Bayer BAYER, the Bayer Cross and NUBEQA are registered trademarks of Bayer. Find more information at Our online press service is just a click away: Follow us on Facebook: Follow us on X: Forward-Looking Statements This release may contain forward-looking statements based on current assumptions and forecasts made by Bayer management. Various known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors could lead to material differences between the actual future results, financial situation, development or performance of the company and the estimates given here. These factors include those discussed in Bayer's public reports, which are available on the Bayer website at The company assumes no liability whatsoever to update these forward-looking statements or to conform them to future events or developments. References Saad F, et al. Darolutamide in combination with androgen-deprivation therapy in patients with metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer from the Phase III ARANOTE trial. J Clin Onc. 2024;42(36):4271-4281. NUBEQA ® (darolutamide) [Prescribing Information]. Whippany, NJ: Bayer HealthCare Pharmaceuticals, Inc.; June 2025. Bray F, et al. Global cancer statistics 2022: GLOBOCAN estimates of incidence and mortality worldwide for 36 cancers in 185 countries. Accessed June 2025. Prostate Cancer: Statistics. Accessed June 2025. American Cancer Society. Cancer Facts & Figures 2024. Accessed June 2025. James ND, et al. The Lancet Commission on prostate cancer: planning for the surge in cases. Lancet. 2024;403:1683-1722. NCT04736199. Darolutamide in Addition to ADT Versus ADT in Metastatic Hormone-sensitive Prostate Cancer (ARANOTE). Accessed June 2025. Piombino C, et al. De novo metastatic prostate cancer: are we moving toward a personalized treatment? Cancers (Basel). 2023;15(20):4945. Helgstrand JT, et al. Trends in incidence and 5-year mortality in men with newly diagnosed, metastatic prostate cancer - A population-based analysis of 2 national cohorts. Cancer. 2018;124(14):2931-2938. Buzzoni C, et al. Metastatic prostate cancer incidence and prostate-specific antigen testing: new insights from the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer. Eur Urol. 2015;68:885-890. Siegel DA, et al. Prostate cancer incidence and survival, by stage and race/ethnicity - United States, 2001-2017. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2020;69:1473-1480. Hahn AW, et al. Metastatic castration sensitive prostate cancer: optimizing patient selection and treatment. Am Soc Clin Oncol Educ Book. 2018;23;38:363-371.

Trump formally asks Congress to claw back approved spending targeted by DOGE
Trump formally asks Congress to claw back approved spending targeted by DOGE

San Francisco Chronicle​

time18 minutes ago

  • San Francisco Chronicle​

Trump formally asks Congress to claw back approved spending targeted by DOGE

WASHINGTON (AP) — The White House on Tuesday officially asked Congress to claw back $9.4 billion in already approved spending, taking funding away from programs targeted by Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency. It's a process known as 'rescission,' which requires President Donald Trump to get approval from Congress to return money that had previously been appropriated. Trump's aides say the funding cuts target programs that promote liberal ideologies. The request, if it passes the House and Senate, would formally enshrine many of the spending cuts and freezes sought by DOGE. It comes at a time when Musk is extremely unhappy with the tax cut and spending plan making its way through Congress, calling it on Tuesday a 'disgusting abomination' for increasing the federal deficit. White House budget director Russ Vought said more rescission packages and other efforts to cut spending could follow if the current effort succeeds. 'We are certainly willing and able to send up additional packages if the congressional will is there,' Vought told reporters. Here's what to know about the rescissions request: Will the rescissions make a dent in the national debt? The request to Congress is unlikely to meaningfully change the troublesome increase in the U.S. national debt. Tax revenues have been insufficient to cover the growing costs of Social Security, Medicare and other programs. The Congressional Budget Office estimates the government is on track to spend roughly $7 trillion this year, with the rescission request equaling just 0.1% of that total. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters at Tuesday's briefing that Vought — a 'well-respected fiscal hawk,' she called him — would continue to cut spending, hinting that there could be additional efforts to return funds. 'He has tools at his disposal to produce even more savings,' Leavitt said. Vought said he can send up additional rescissions at the end of the fiscal year in September 'and if Congress does not act on it, that funding expires.' 'It's one of the reasons why we are not putting all of our expectations in a typical rescissions process,' he added. What programs are targeted by the rescissions? A spokesperson for the White House Office of Management and Budget, speaking on condition of anonymity to preview some of the items that would lose funding, said that $8.3 billion was being cut from the State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development. NPR and PBS would also lose federal funding, as would the U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, also known as PEPFAR. The spokesperson listed specific programs that the Trump administration considered wasteful, including $750,000 to reduce xenophobia in Venezuela, $67,000 for feeding insect powder to children in Madagascar and $3 million for circumcision, vasectomies and condoms in Zambia. Is the rescissions package likely to get passed? House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., complimented the planned cuts and pledged to pass them. 'This rescissions package reflects many of DOGE's findings and is one of the many legislative tools Republicans are using to restore fiscal sanity,' Johnson said. 'Congress will continue working closely with the White House to codify these recommendations, and the House will bring the package to the floor as quickly as possible.' Members of the House Freedom Caucus, among the chamber's most conservative lawmakers, said they would like to see additional rescission packages from the administration. 'We will support as many more rescissions packages the White House can send us in the coming weeks and months,' the group said in a press release. 'Passing this rescissions package will be an important demonstration of Congress's willingness to deliver on DOGE and the Trump agenda.' Sen. Susan Collins, chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee, gave the package a less optimistic greeting. 'Despite this fast track, the Senate Appropriations Committee will carefully review the rescissions package and examine the potential consequences of these rescissions on global health, national security, emergency communications in rural communities, and public radio and television stations,' the Maine lawmaker said in a statement. Why does the administration need Congress' approval? The White House's request to return appropriated funds is meant to comply with the 1974 Impoundment Control Act. That law created the process by which the president can formally disclose to Congress the appropriated money it intends to not spend. Congress generally has 45 days to review and approve the request, but Vought is arguing that the end of the fiscal year would enable the administration to bypass a vote. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a fiscal watchdog group, said in a 2018 backgrounder that the Senate can pass rescission packages with a simple majority, instead of the 60 votes needed to overcome a possible filibuster. Between 1974 and 2000, presidents requested $76 billion worth of rescissions and Congress approved $25 billion. Bobby Kogan, senior director of federal budget policy at the Center for American Progress, a liberal think tank, said in an emailed statement that the Trump administration was already 'illegally impounding additional funds,' as withholding money has 'always been illegal without explicit Congressional approval.' On CNN on Sunday, Vought insisted that the Trump administration was complying with the law, but it simply had a different view of the law relative to some Democrats. 'We're not breaking the law,' Vought said. 'Every part of the federal government, each branch, has to look at the Constitution themselves and uphold it, and there's tension between the branches.'

The populist right takes a victory lap
The populist right takes a victory lap

Politico

time21 minutes ago

  • Politico

The populist right takes a victory lap

MORAL COMPASS — A who's who of Republican elites is set to gather this evening at the National Building Museum for a swanky gala hosted by American Compass, the institutional home of conservative economic populism in Washington. The black-tie affair is nominally being held to commemorate the fifth anniversary of the think tank, which was founded in 2020 by the conservative economist and former Mitt Romney adviser Oren Cass. But among American Compass's supporters in the capital, the event is broadly understood to represent a victory lap of sorts, marking the ascendancy of Cass's brand of economic populism in the Trump era and the newfound prominence of two of American Compass's primary political allies: Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio — both of whom are scheduled to speak at tonight's event. Yet despite American Compass's success in establishing itself as a buzzy hub of new conservative economic thinking in Washington, the gala comes at a particularly fraught moment for this ascendant wing of the GOP. Cass's brand of economic thinking — which rejects the GOP's traditional mélange of free trade, tax cuts and deregulation in favor of trade protectionism, industrial policy, immigration restriction and a relatively friendlier stance toward organized labor — has made definite inroads in Washington, as the Trump administration's aggressive tariff policies and public courting of organized labor suggest. But the limits of the administration's commitment to American Compass-style populism have been put on stark display in recent weeks thanks to the fight over Trump's 'big, beautiful' domestic spending bill. The legislation, which is currently under consideration in the Senate, includes a slew of decidedly un-populist provisions — tax cuts for corporations and high-earners, rollbacks to Medicaid coverage and funding cuts for food assistance programs for low-income Americans — and has been met with unusually strong resistance among populist-leaning Republicans in the upper chamber, especially Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley, who has publicly opposed the bill's Medicaid cuts. Notably, Cass has also spoken out publicly against some of the bill's tax provisions. In a recent interview with POLITICO Magazine, Cass criticized congressional Republicans for their inability to articulate a coherent economic rationale for proposed tax cuts, calling the negotiation process 'a death march through a series of choices that nobody really wanted to be making.' He also called out the House package for exacerbating America's ongoing 'fiscal crisis' by adding to the national debt — a claim that the Trump White House continues to deny, despite multiple independent estimates showing that the bill would add over $3 trillion to the debt over the next decade. The tension inside the Building Museum will be heightened by the presence of Vance and Rubio, both of whom serve as ambassadors of sorts between the GOP's economic populist wing and the Trump White House. In the Senate, both Vance and Rubio emerged as leading champions of Cass-style economic populism, with Vance taking a stand on tariffs and rail-safety regulation, and Rubio positioning himself as a vocal advocate of targeted industrial policy as a tool for the U.S. to compete with China. Vance's elevation to the No. 2 spot in the administration was also a major win for the cohort: Vance and Cass have been friendly for nearly a decade, Cass told me, dating back to the publication of Hillbilly Elegy in 2016. The two have deepened their political ties in recent years as well, with Vance headlining a conference hosted by American Compass in 2023 and hiring the group's former research director to his Senate office. But now that both men have left the Senate for Cabinet-level roles in the administration, they have had to downplay any ideological daylight between Trump's economic agenda and the conservative populist's vision. That's especially true on tax reform — where American Compass and others in the movement have unsuccessfully urged the administration to raise rates on corporations and high-earners — and welfare cuts, where populist have come out against the 'big, beautiful' bills cuts to Medicaid and other popular social safety net programs. The departure of Vance and Rubio from the Senate has also thrust Cass and his fellow economic populists into another sort of political bind. When acting as a unified bloc in the upper chamber, Vance, Rubio and Hawley (and, to a lesser extent, other populist-curious Republican senators like Tom Cotton and Eric Schmitt) wielded significant leverage over leadership. But with Vance and Rubio now out of the picture, Hawley has been forced into the uncomfortable position of allying with more moderate (and MAGA-skeptical) Senate Republicans like Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski to push populists' preferred changes to Trump's mega-bill. That dilemma points to a broader challenge facing Cass and his fellow conservative populists at the dawn of the second Trump administration. Although American Compass has found champions among a handful of high-profile Republicans in Washington — and, importantly, has made inroads with a broad swath of younger Republican staffers on the Hill — they've yet to win broad-based support among rank-and-file Republicans. In particular, Republicans in the House have kept American Compass's heterodox economic argument at a comfortable arm's length, giving the anti-tax budget hawks in the Freedom Caucus disproportionate power over the economic agenda in the lower chamber. That lack of broad-based political support is partly a function of the relative novelty of American Compass's message — it is, after all, only five years old — and partly a result of the personality of its founder. Cass, a bespectacled and soft-spoken budget wonk, has always appealed more to the self-styled conservative intellectuals in the Senate than he has to the conservative bomb-throwers in the House. Cass is also not a typical go-along-to-get-along creature of the Washington swamp: As his recent criticisms of the 'big, beautiful' bill suggest, he is one of the few MAGA-aligned conservatives in Washington who is still willing to offer principled criticisms of the administration's actions — a tendency that has not always endeared him to White House officials. A self-described policy nerd, he is also something of an odd fit within the smashmouth rhetorical frame of the MAGA mainstream. With all these low-level tensions simmering in the background, the gala represents an opportunity for two of the administration's high-profile emissaries to tend to some sore spots between the White House and the GOP's economic populists. Vance — who is slated to sit for a Q&A with Cass at the gala — has emerged as a particularly adept mediator among MAGA's various factions: In March, he used a similar speech at a high-profile gathering of right-leaning tech figures to broker a truce of sorts between the tech right and the populist-right. In that respect, the Building Museum serves as a thematically appropriate venue for the event. With Trump's domestic policy agenda dangling in a delicate legislative limbo, the administration needs to quickly build some bridges with the party's economic populists to get the bill across the finish line. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@ Or contact tonight's author at iward@ or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @ianwardreports. What'd I Miss? — Congress finally gets Trump's request to codify DOGE cuts to NPR, PBS, foreign aid: President Donald Trump has sent Congress a request to nix $9.4 billion in current funding for public broadcasting, National Public Radio and foreign aid — the first test of Republicans' willingness to back the administration's gutting of federal agencies. The 'rescissions' memo was officially transmitted today to Capitol Hill, according to Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine), but it has yet to be publicly released. The request now starts a 45-day clock — not counting breaks longer than three days — for Congress to either approve or rebuff Trump's request to claw back funding that's supposed to be flowing now. — Fetterman's chief of staff leaves amid string of departures: Pennsylvania Sen. John Fetterman's chief of staff is leaving her post, two people familiar with the matter confirmed to POLITICO today. The move is yet another key departure for a congressional office that's been marked by turnover amid mounting questions about the Democrat's health and shifting political persona. Axios first reported Krysta Sinclair Juris' plans to part ways with Fetterman's office. POLITICO has learned Cabelle St. John, who previously served as Fetterman's deputy chief of staff, senior adviser and scheduling director, is taking over as his new top aide. — Navy set to rename ship honoring Harvey Milk amid DEI purge: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is set to rename a naval vessel named after gay rights activist Harvey Milk, with several other ships honoring civil rights activists and women also potentially being rechristened. The move targeting the ship named after the gay rights icon comes as LGBTQ+ communities kick off pride month celebrations across the country. The step furthers Hegseth's agenda to stomp out DEI initiatives at the Pentagon, which has included removing books from service academies and scrubbing some mentions of women and people of color in the armed services from DOD websites. — Musk goes nuclear on Trump's 'big beautiful bill': Elon Musk came out swinging against President Donald Trump's 'big beautiful bill' today, slamming the reconciliation package as a 'disgusting abomination' in a massive break from the president just days after stepping away from his role in the administration. 'I'm sorry, but I just can't stand it anymore,' Musk wrote on his social media platform X. 'This massive, outrageous, pork-filled Congressional spending bill is a disgusting abomination. Shame on those who voted for it: you know you did wrong. You know it.' Musk, who Trump had tapped to lead the federal expense-slashing Department of Government Efficiency, went on to criticize the bill for setting up Congress to 'increase the already gigantic budget deficit to $2.5 trillion (!!!)' and saddle Americans with 'crushingly unsustainable debt.' AROUND THE WORLD SPY GAME — Ukrainian spies launched an underwater assault against the pillars of the Kerch Bridge connecting Russia's mainland with Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula, which Moscow has illegally occupied since 2014. 'The underwater supports of the piers were severely damaged at the sea bottom level — 1,100 kg of explosives in TNT equivalent contributed to this. The bridge is in an emergency state,' the Security Service of Ukraine, or SBU, Kyiv's main counterintelligence agency, said in a statement today after the attack. The bridge was closed for transport as of 3 p.m., Russian authorities reported, issuing no more details. The attack on the Kerch Bridge happened just two days after the SBU's daring Spiderweb drone operation damaged dozens of strategic bombers thousands of kilometers inside Russia. The Kerch Bridge was personally opened by Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2018 and today marked Ukraine's third attempt to strike it. QUITTING TIME — Dutch far-right figurehead Geert Wilders announced this morning that his party would quit the government in The Hague, throwing the Netherlands into turmoil. Wilders' Party for Freedom (PVV) left the coalition in a heated dispute over the government's position on asylum. 'No signature for our asylum plans. No changes to the [coalition] agreement. PVV is leaving the coalition,' Wilders posted on X. Prime Minister Dick Schoof announced this afternoon that he'd hand in the resignation of the government to the King, triggering a new election less than a year after his government took office. While the PVV members of the government are resigning, Schoof said that the remainder of the government — including himself — would stay on in a caretaker capacity until there's a new administration. Schoof called Wilders' move 'unnecessary and irresponsible.' But, he said, 'if one party lacks the will to continue [to carry out the government program], you cannot move forward with each other.' The outgoing Dutch government, a coalition between Wilders' far-right PVV, the populist Farmer-Citizens Movement (BBB), the centrist New Social Contract (NSC) and the liberal People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), had scheduled crisis talks this morning to discuss Wilders' demands for stricter asylum measures. Nightly Number RADAR SWEEP AI ANXIETY — While the advent of generative AI has bolstered unconventional uses of large language models like ChatGPT, it has also become a go-to therapist and interpreter for relationship woes. Users appreciate the platform's constant availability for emotional analysis and its stark evaluations of personal conversations. However, WIRED's Megan Farokhmanesh reports that such practices actually promote greater social anxiety in users while inhibiting the growth of their interpersonal communication skills. Privacy concerns also abound as users upload extensive chat records and personal information into the model to have it fully assess their emotional needs. Parting Image Marisa Guerra Echeverria contributed to this newsletter. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here.

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