Ranking every Big 12 team by conference championship chances per ESPN FPI

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Ranking every Big 12 team by conference championship chances per ESPN FPI
The Big 12 is shaping up to be one of college football's most competitive conferences. Seven teams enter the season with a legitimate chance at claiming the conference title.
After a 2024 season that ended with a surprise champion in Arizona State, the conference appears even more wide open in 2025. Kansas State, BYU and even teams like Baylor and Kansas are also being talked about as possible contenders.
ESPN's Football Power Index, which received an update this week, agrees that the Big 12 will be tight at the top, with seven teams having a greater than 7.5% chance to win the conference. With so many teams having a solid chance at claiming a title, every game on the conference schedule will go a long way toward deciding each team's fate.
Colorado owns the fifth-lowest percentage in the conference at 2.4%, which is not surprising given the Buffs' significant roster turnover, including the losses of Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders. The predictive metric also gives the Buffs only a 3.1% chance of making the College Football Playoff. By all accounts, FPI considers Deion Sanders' Buffs a middling Big 12 team going into 2025.
With such a crowded conference, let's take a look at each Big 12 program ranked by its conference title chances according to ESPN's Football Power Index.
Conference title chance: 19.9%
FPI Rank: No. 1 in Big 12 (No. 21 nationally)
Chris Klieman's squad enters the season as heavy Big 12 favorites and with a talented dual-threat in Avery Johnson, no one should be surprised to see the Wildcats hoist the conference title.
2. Arizona State Cyclones
Conference title chance: 13.0%
FPI Rank: No. 2 in Big 12 (No. 24 nationally)
The defending Big 12 champions won't be slept on anymore. Cam Skattebo is off to the NFL, but quarterback Sam Leavitt and wide receiver Jordyn Tyson are the Big 12's most formidable offensive pairings. We won't get to see an ASU vs. K-State regular season matchup, but perhaps that's a good thing, because it would be a must-see championship matchup.
3. Kansas Jayhawks
Conference title chance: 11.3%
FPI Rank: No. 4 in Big 12 (No. 30 nationally)
Perhaps Kansas's high ranking in a conference title is surprising to some, but it shouldn't be. The Jayhawks own the sixth-easiest conference schedule and won't face TCU, BYU or Arizona State. Jalon Daniels is a talented returning quarterback and Lance Leipold is one of the better head coaches in the Big 12. The Sunflower Showdown against K-State might be the best regular-season game of the year.
4. BYU Cougars
Conference title chance: 10.4%
FPI Rank: No. 3 in Big 12 (No. 29 nationally)
The Cougars seem to always be around the top of the Big 12 and the top-25 rankings. Under Kalani Sitake, the BYU team will be ready to compete, and they have the second-easiest conference schedule to boot.
Conference title chance: 10.3%
FPI Rank: No. 6 in Big 12 (No. 33 nationally)
Another sleeper conference champion is the Baylor Bears. Dave Aranda's squad finished the season on a high note, winning their final six regular-season games, including four on the road. They hope to channel that momentum into a strong start to the 2025 season.
6. TCU Horned Frogs
Conference title chance: 8.5%
FPI Rank: No. 5 in Big 12 (No. 32 nationally)
It is surprising to see TCU ranked lower than Baylor and Kansas, considering the Horned Frogs own a better SP+ than both the Bears and Jayhawks. However, Sonny Dykes' crew owns a daunting 2025 schedule that includes nonconference games against North Carolina and SMU. The Horned Frogs can challenge for the title, but will have to beat a lot of good teams.
7. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Conference title chance: 7.8%
FPI Rank: No. 7 in Big 12 (No. 35 nationally)
I am a big fan of the Red Raiders in 2025 and think they should have a better than 7.8% chance at winning the Big 12. Texas Tech has the easiest schedule in the Big 12 thanks to nonconference games against Kent State and Arkansas-Pine Bluff, but only four of their nine conference opponents should truly test Joey McGuire's squad. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Red Raiders atop the Big 12 standings come the end of November.
8. UCF Knights
Conference title chance: 4.7%
FPI Rank: No. 8 in Big 12 (No. 37 nationally)
The dropoff in title hopes begins here with Scott Frost's UCF Knights. Frost is back in Orlando and has overhauled the entire roster. I don't think the Knights will be as good as FPI predicts, but perhaps UCK can get to seven wins.
Conference title chance: 3.7%
FPI Rank: No. 9 in Big 12 (No. 45 nationally)
Matt Campbell always has his Cyclones punching above their weight, and I expect the same in 2025. If Iowa State loses more than five games, I will be shocked. They might take a step back from their historic 11-win season last year, but Iowa State should still be in the thick of the Big 12 race.
10. Utah Utes
Conference title chance: 3.1%
FPI Rank: No. 10 in Big 12 (No. 46 nationally)
Utah might not fully return to the top of the Big 12, but they will be significantly better than their 2-7 conference record in 2024. They could be a surprising team in 2025, and seeing the Utes win eight games wouldn't shock anyone.
11. Cincinnati Bearcats
Conference title chance: 2.8%
FPI Rank: No. 12 in Big 12 (No. 53 nationally)
We are now getting into the Big 12's bottom barrel, where any conference title noise from these squads would be a significant surprise. The Bearcats were the worst Big 12 team in the latest SP+ rankings and that likely holds throughout 2025.
Conference title chance: 2.4%
FPI Rank: No. 11 in Big 12 (No. 49 nationally)
Can Deion Sanders replicate the success Colorado had in 2024? It is unlikely considering the Buffaloes' conference schedule, which is the toughest in the Big 12. However, in such a wide-open conference, anything is possible, but the Buffs would do well to nab six wins.
13. Oklahoma State Cowboys
Conference title chance: 0.9%
FPI Rank: No. 14 in Big 12 (No. 67 nationally)
The dropoff in title chances continues with these last three teams having less than a 1% chance of winning the conference. Mike Gundy had his worst year as the Cowboys' head coach last season, going with zero wins in Big 12 play. 2025 is a big year for him to prove he is still the right man for the job, but being near the top of the Big 12 doesn't seem in the cards.
14. West Virginia Mountaineers
Conference title chance: 0.6%
FPI Rank: No. 13 in Big 12 (No. 66 nationally)
It's a complete rebuild in Morgantown with Rich Rodriguez back in the fold, and that is reflected in their conference title hopes.
Conference title chance: 0.5%
FPI Rank: No. 15 in Big 12 (No. 69 nationally)
Arizona has some talented players like quarterback Noah Fifta, but it won't be enough to contend in the Big 12. Brent Brennan enters 2025 with the hot seat close to becoming a reality. The Wildcats aren't expected to contend, but five wins might be necessary to stave off significant change in Tucson.
16. Houston Cougars
Conference title chance: 0.2%
FPI Rank: No. 16 in Big 12 (No. 75 nationally)
Houston being ranked this low is surprising to me. They have the easiest conference schedule and the second-easiest overall schedule. That might not translate into being conference title contenders, but I wouldn't be shocked to see the Cougars gain bowl eligibility, getting to the six-win mark.
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