Could Donald Trump's Push for Republicans To Redistrict Backfire?

Newsweek

4 days ago

Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources.
As President Donald Trump and Republicans mull redrawing red-state congressional maps to benefit the GOP, experts weighed in about whether those efforts could backfire.
Why It Matters
Republicans in states like Ohio and Texas are poised to redraw their maps ahead of the 2026 midterm elections in an attempt to thwart Democratic gains in the House. Historically, the party in the White House loses seats during the midterms, and Democrats view Trump's declining approval rating as a boon in key districts.
But Republicans' mid-decade redistricting plans threaten to limit Democrats' gains next November, fueling concern from the left, as well as calls for blue-leaning states like California to retaliate by redrawing their own maps in an escalating redistricting arms race.
President Donald Trump attends a meeting in the White House in Washington on July 9, 2025.
President Donald Trump attends a meeting in the White House in Washington on July 9, 2025.What To Know
Republicans are looking to pick up five seats in Texas, where Republicans already hold a 25-13 advantage in Congress. They could do so by targeting seats in south Texas, where Republicans have made inroads with Latino voters over the past few years, and by breaking up districts in the Houston and Dallas suburbs.
They would do so by packing Democrat voters in as few districts as possible, while having Republican incumbents take on some new Democratic-leaning areas to reduce the number of blue districts. That means incumbent Republicans may win by smaller margins, but—if successful—would maximize the number of GOP-leaning districts.
However, it runs the risk of creating what is known as a "dummymander" that backfires and benefits Democrats. That would happen if Republicans stretch themselves too thin in some districts, allowing Democrats to prevail, particularly during a "blue wave" like 2018.
It is a concern for Republicans, who are eyeing Representative Lizzie Fletcher's Houston-area district and Representative Julie Johnson's Dallas-area district as potential redraw opportunities. However, other incumbents would need to take in some of those Democratic voters. The risk is that if 2026 is a blue wave, Democrats could hold onto those districts, as well as flip others that are presently more solidly Republican.
Joshua Blank, who runs the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin, told Newsweek that they are unlikely to "do anything that would result in serious exposure for its members, even if 2026 turns out to be a good year for Democrats."
"The risk to Republicans is truly in their own hands," Blank said. "It's easy to imagine them effectively carving out 2 new seats, but as the number of new GOP seats increases, with the president wanting five new GOP seats, the amount of line shifting has to increase dramatically. Not only might this lead to unintended consequences, but it is also likely to result in more avenues for legal challenges that will delay or potentially halt the final implementation of the maps."
Two south Texas districts—represented by Democratic Representatives Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez—are likely to be safer opportunities for the GOP, he said.
"Regardless of whether or not you believe that south Texas is permanently moving towards the GOP, those seats are surrounded by solidly Republican districts that can shed reliably Republican voters without putting those members into newly competitive seats," he said.
That's harder to accomplish in urban and suburban areas, where there are fewer reliable Republicans, he said.
Shawn J. Donahue, professor of political science at the University of Buffalo and an expert on redistricting, told Newsweek it is possible that redraws could backfire, but that Republicans have been able to make fairly durable maps in recent history.
North Carolina is one example he pointed to. Although the state is nearly evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans, the GOP managed to redraw the map to give themselves 10 safe districts, three safe Democratic districts and a competitive district, currently held by Democratic Representative Don Davis, though Trump also carried it at the presidential level.
"Those 10 seats look pretty resilient," he said. "The question is how far do you try to push, packing one particular party to just a few seats. How much are you willing to spread out your own voters?"
Missouri, Ohio May Be Safer Opportunities for GOP
Redraws in Missouri and Ohio are fairly safe, Donahue said.
In Missouri, Republicans are looking at redrawing the Fifth Congressional District, which contains Kansas City and is held by Democratic Representative Emanuel Cleaver, to become more Republican.
They could stretch the more urban and Democratic parts of the district to include rural, conservative areas, he said. That is a similar tactic Tennessee Republicans used in Nashville. Although the city could sustain a Democratic district of its own, they divided it into three Republican districts mixed with conservative suburbs and rural areas.
Ohio could pan out similarly, he said, as the Toldeo-based seat represented by Democratic Representative Marcy Kaptur is already tenuous if she opts not to run again. The Akron-based seat held by Representative Emilia Sykes could also be more easily redrawn, he said.
Florida could be more difficult. Republicans made gains across the state last year and could make efforts to crack Tampa into several districts or redraw areas in the southern part of the state where Trump made inroads. But whether the state continues to get more conservative, or shifts back to be more competitive, is an open question that could determine how far Republicans can go.
"If those areas are going to continue to become more Republican or stay where they were in 2024 or 2022, it's different than if some of those voters are going to be, 'We don't really like what's going on, so we're going to start voting Democratic again,'" he said.
Democratic Opportunities to Strike Back Are Limited
Another risk, on paper, is that Democratic states could retaliate by redrawing their own maps to be more Democratic-friendly. But states like New Jersey have laws on the books prohibiting mid-decade redistricting, while states like California have independent commissions.
California Governor Gavin Newsom has said the state could redraw its maps. Donahue noted that lawmakers could implement a ballot measure earlier next year to achieve this. However, that may not necessarily pass in time for the midterms.
New York similarly would need to cross legal hurdles that could make it difficult to redraw maps by 2027 but also face a political challenge, Donahue said.
"Unless you're willing to draw districts that go from Manhattan to parts of upstate New York, one of the things that's tricky is that New York was a lot closer in 2024 than in 2020, so would you actually risk spreading your Democratic voters out too much?" he said.
New York backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by only about 13 percentage points last November—down from former President Joe Biden's 23-point victory in 2020 and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's 22.5-point victory in 2016.
Illinois has a similar problem. Democrats control the process in the state and already have a 14-3 map, but it also drifted rightward, so any redraw would run the risk of leaving Democratic incumbents in more vulnerable positions, Donahue said.
What People Are Saying
Shawn J. Donahue, professor of political science at the University of Buffalo, told Newsweek: "How willing are you to draw districts that have ridiculous looking lines? I mean, Democrats in Illinois didn't seem to have a problem with that and Republicans in Texas didn't seem to have a problem with it."
Representative Eric Burlison, a Missouri Republican, told KCUR on redrawing the map: "I literally just got off the phone with the White House, and they do want that. And this is the first that I've heard it directly from them, because before that I heard it through rumors, through other people."
Senator Elissa Slotkin, a Michigan Democrat, told Axios: "If they're going to go nuclear in Texas, I'm going to go nuclear in other places. I'm not going to fight with one arm tied behind my back. I don't want to do that, but if they're proposing to rig the game, we're going to get in that game and fight."
President Donald Trump told reporters this month: "No, no, just a very simple redrawing. We pick up five seats. But we have a couple of other states where we will pick up seats also."
What Happens Next
The redistricting arms race will likely continue over the coming months, with Texas already being in a special session that will, in part, address redistricting. Ohio's redraw is also definitive, as the state is legally required to redo its map, but specifics about how it will play out are unclear.