Red Sox trade scenarios: Jim Bowden assesses proposals for Mitch Keller, Merrill Kelly and more

New York Times

25-07-2025

When the Boston Red Sox traded Rafael Devers to the San Francisco Giants six weeks ago, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow was adamant it was not an indication they'd given up on the season.
'It's important to point out that this is in no way signifying a waving of the white flag on 2025,' he said on June 16. 'We are as committed as we were six months ago to putting a winning team on the field, to competing for the division and making a deep postseason run.'
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The Red Sox scuffled on a nine-game road trip immediately after the trade, then took off with a 10-game winning streak into the All-Star break. Since the break, they've gone 2-4 on the road against National League division leaders in Chicago and Philadelphia, and host the Dodgers this weekend at Fenway.
The parity in the American League makes the Red Sox feel they have a chance with a young team sprinkled with veterans. But they've acknowledged it's a team that needs reinforcements. When the Red Sox are rolling, they look unbeatable. When they're scuffling, they look like they can't get out of their own way.
Breslow hasn't wavered in recent weeks about his desire to add to the club, most notably a No. 2 starter. With less than a week until the trade deadline, the Red Sox appear to be in a holding pattern as teams posture for the best deals.
With that in mind, we asked The Athletic's Jim Bowden for his insights on a few trade proposals to address their needs.
The Red Sox need starters, and the Pirates want position player prospects.
Garcia boasts raw power and seems the likeliest prospect to be moved in the farm system, particularly if the Red Sox want to hold onto their current four big-league outfielders. He has an OPS close to .950 at Triple A, but the Red Sox roster doesn't have room for him now — or anytime soon. Last summer, with a middle-infield prospect crunch, Breslow traded infielder Nick Yorke to Milwaukee for starter Quinn Priester, whom he then traded for an outfield prospect and a draft pick after the first round, which the Red Sox used to net right-hander Marcus Phillips this year.
All that's to say, Breslow isn't opposed to trading top prospects. The Athletic's Keith Law ranked Garcia 46th in his recent top-60 prospects list.
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Arias is even higher on Law's list, coming in at No. 9, but he's further away from the majors. The 19-year-old hit .346 with an .804 OPS this season in Low A, then .265 with a .702 OPS after a promotion to High A. Law notes Arias' need for development, but also that he has the makings of an All-Star as a strong defensive shortstop. The Red Sox have pegged Marcelo Mayer as their shortstop of the future, so while Arias would not be big-league ready for the Pirates, Mayer's presence makes it easier to part with him.
In Keller, the Red Sox would acquire a dependable and controllable starter. He's under team control through 2028, with $55.7 million remaining on the final three seasons of a five-year deal. That's an affordable salary for a solid starting pitcher, especially one who hasn't posted an ERA north of 4.25 in the past four years, and the Red Sox have plenty of payroll flexibility following the Devers deal.
In 21 starts this season, Keller has a 3.53 ERA and career-low 1.16 WHIP, though he has only a 19 percent strikeout rate.
Either way, he'd be a strong addition to the rotation behind Garrett Crochet and alongside Brayan Bello and Lucas Giolito.
Bowden: I think this is a fair trade proposal for both sides. It's certainly a deal that would work immediately for the Red Sox and put them in a much stronger position to make the playoffs.
I like the fact that Garcia is close to the big leagues, can play all three outfield positions, can work a count, draw walks and has raw (20-25 home run) power. I love the upside of Arias, but at 19 years old, I'm not sure the Pirates' front office has the luxury of waiting on him since their jobs are on the line.
If I'm Pittsburgh, I'd ask for Kristian Campbell and Garcia or Duran straight-up for Keller. That said, if Pirates GM Ben Cherington had long-term job security, this trade would probably work for everyone.
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Though the Red Sox have a surplus of outfielders, Breslow has said he doesn't feel it's absolutely necessary to trade one of them and that while it may take some maneuvering from manager Alex Cora to fit them all in, it's not a bad thing.
Duran hasn't had as strong a 2025 season as his All-Star 2024 campaign, but he's still been a key piece of the lineup, hitting .254 with a .748 OPS, 25 doubles, nine homers and a league-leading 10 triples plus 16 stolen bases.
Duran turns 29 in September and is under team control through the 2028 season, so despite his importance to the lineup, his age and years of control make him the likeliest of the outfielders to be traded among Wilyer Abreu, Ceddanne Rafaela and Roman Anthony.
Parting with Duran would not be easy, that much is clear, but the Red Sox need pitching, and this scenario would bolster two aspects of their club while trading from an area of surplus.
Bieber is a veteran pitcher with postseason experience. He's also coming off 2024 elbow surgery. The right-hander posted a 3.08 ERA in 21 starts in 2023 before undergoing Tommy John surgery in April 2024. He returned to rehab games this spring, had a setback, but has pitched twice since the All-Star break in minor-league appearances and is set for another on Sunday. He has allowed one run in five innings over the past two outings, striking out nine of 19 batters faced. He's on pace to return to the majors by mid-August.
Behind Crochet, the Red Sox have Giolito and Bello, who have pitched well of late (outside of Giolito's rough start in Philly), but adding another arm to the top of the rotation would bolster them down the stretch. Walker Buehler has had a rough season, but pitched better in recent starts. With Hunter Dobbins out for the year and Tanner Houck injured and not returning anytime soon, rookie Richard Fitts has taken over the fifth starter role. (Patrick Sandoval has been rehabbing with the Red Sox after Tommy John surgery last year but still has not begun a rehab assignment.) Even coming off an injury, Bieber would strengthen that group.
Bieber would likely only be a rental, though. He is on a two-year, $26 million deal through the end of the season and has a player option that he could decline. If he did so, the Red Sox could offer him a qualifying offer, which if declined, would net them a draft pick.
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It's a gamble, and giving up Duran for Bieber would not be worth the risk. That's where Clase enters the picture.
The Guardians are listening on offers for the 27-year-old closer in an attempt to get a prospect haul, but have liked Duran as a controllable, major-league-ready outfielder.
Clase is under control through 2026 but has team options for 2027 and 2028. Boston's closer, Aroldis Chapman, has been elite this season, but he will be a free agent this winter and Clase could take over the role next year.
In the meantime, fortifying the back of the bullpen with Clase in front of Chapman would be a boon for Boston in its playoff push.
Bowden: I'd like to see the Red Sox hold onto Duran, keep all four outfielders, and rotate Abreu, Rafaela, Anthony and Duran through the DH spot. That said, if they decide to move Duran, it's hard to argue against this trade concept from a Red Sox perspective, especially if Shane Bieber's medical reports are clean as he recovers from elbow surgery. If the Red Sox think Bieber can be anything close to the ace he was in his prime by this October, then they should pull the trigger.
In addition, to land Clase, one of the game's best closers, would be a no-brainer. To get bookends for their pitching staff for what amounts to their fourth outfielder makes sense for Boston. And for the Guardians, it would fill a significant need in their lineup with a talented player for several years. It's possible they could even pivot and trade Duran to the Padres, Phillies or Reds for a much larger prospect package to really help rebuild their lineup quality and depth.
As The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal reported on Thursday, the Diamondbacks are telling clubs they will be sellers. Arizona has two starters on the market, and the Red Sox have to at least be considering trade packages.
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Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen will be free agents this winter, but given the dearth of starters available, the asking price still figures to be high. It's unclear what Arizona would be seeking in return, but controllable starters always carry a premium, and over the past two years under Breslow, the Red Sox have started to build up their system.
Though Kelly is a rental starter, he would help bolster the rotation with veteran, postseason experience and a 3.32 ERA.
Parting with Early would be tough, but the Red Sox have starters Payton Tolle, Luis Perales, Juan Valera and Brandon Clarke ahead of him among their top 10 prospects. That's not even counting recent first-rounder Kyson Witherspoon, who will slot into the top 10 as well.
It would be surprising if the Red Sox parted with Tolle for a rental, but if Arizona pushed for Perales, Valera or Clark instead of Early, the Red Sox would probably consider it.
But given how in demand Kelly figures be, other teams may be willing to offer more.
Early is in Double A and could debut next season, with mid-to-back-of-the-rotation potential in the big leagues. He's posted a 2.51 ERA in 15 appearances (12 starts) this season with Portland.
Bowden: This is exactly the type of trade that Boston and Arizona need to make. The D-Backs get a future middle-of-the-rotation starter and Boston gets a valuable two-month rental in Kelly. If I'm Arizona, I would need the Sox to add another prospect as a sweetener to close the deal — because it's a seller's market. Perhaps adding right-hander Blake Wehunt, who profiles as a fourth or fifth starter, could close this deal.
(Top photo of Mitch Keller: Justin K. Aller / Getty Images)