
Political solution without Palestinian statehood is 'cynical and illegal', says ICJ lawyer
That two-state solution between Israel and Palestine, however, cannot be reached without recognising Palestine as a state, Ardi Imseis, a professor of law at Queen's University in Canada, told The National.
Mr Imseis is a former UN official and has represented states before the International Court of Justice, which last year found Israel to be under an obligation to end its unlawful presence in the occupied Palestinian territory and make reparations for the damage caused.
"Recognition is a political prerogative of states," he said.
They can urge for a political resolution to the problem without recognising one or the other states, Mr Imseis said, although that "does not make sense".
"This is because if you have a two-state solution, one would assume you would need to have two states be part of that solution," he said.
Under international law, the Palestinian people have the right to self-determination in a state of their own.
"This right is peremptory and inalienable," he said. The international community has an obligation to help Palestinians realise that right, he added.
"However, if states make the emergence of a Palestinian state contingent on successful negotiations with Israel, then, in effect, that places Israel in a position of holding a veto power over the exercise by the Palestinian people of their right of self-determination," he said.
"It's a cyclical, cynical and ultimately illegal policy."
Mr Imseis said that Israel was a "bad faith illegal occupier" with no intention to allow the establishment of a Palestinian state.
Following France's announcement, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu lashed out at French President Emmanuel Macron and said that a Palestinian state would create a "launch pad to annihilate Israel".
France, the US and the UK are three of the five members of the UN Security Council with veto power, if and when the next vote comes to admit the state of Palestine to UN membership.
The US used its veto the last time such a vote took place, on April 18, 2024.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who is under increasing pressure from 220 Members of Parliament who wrote to him urging him to recognise a Palestinian state, said he does support the move.
But, he said, it should be part of a "wider plan" which results in security for Palestinians and Israelis.
At least 140 out of the world's 193 members of the UN General Assembly recognise Palestine as a state.
In 2012, the General Assembly gave Palestine non-member observer state status.
"That means, that within the UN system, the state of Palestine already exists," Mr Imseis said.
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The immediate objective of the 12-day war was to dismantle Iran's nuclear infrastructure and prevent it from acquiring nuclear weapons. Trump declared key sites "destroyed" or "shut down", hailing the campaign as a critical blow against a perceived existential threat. (A recent US intelligence report found that only one of the three targeted nuclear facilities was completely destroyed, with the others expected to be operational again within months.) These military operations have significantly reshaped regional power dynamics, pushing forward the Trump administration's regional strategy: normalising relations between Israel and Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia, and potentially extending to Oman, Indonesia, Qatar and even Syria. Yet this pursuit of realignment remains constrained by Israel's ongoing war on Gaza. A ceasefire and the release of Israeli hostages are seen as prerequisites for advancing and expanding normalisation. Israel: A hegemonic power? The US has demonstrated its willingness to act unilaterally with overwhelming force - particularly through the use of "bunker-buster" bombs on Iranian nuclear sites. This was portrayed as a show of unmatched American might, aimed not only at Iran but also as a deterrent to rivals like China and Russia. America's costly backing for Israel is enabling China's unstoppable rise Read More » Meanwhile, Israel has sought to project itself as a formidable military force with deep intelligence reach into Iran's nuclear and security infrastructure. Some Israeli officials have even claimed the country has joined the ranks of global powers, though the strikes, which killed large numbers of civilians, have drawn widespread criticism and raised questions about the legitimacy of such claims. Yet the question remains: can Israel truly become a hegemonic power in the region? Despite its recent operations and short-term tactical gains, Israel faces structural and political barriers to sustained dominance. It remains heavily reliant on US military, diplomatic and economic support. Deep-rooted regional conflicts persist, particularly the unresolved Palestinian issue, which continues to inflame public opinion and obstruct meaningful diplomatic engagement. Key regional powers such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt are unlikely to accept Israeli expansionism or hegemony. Meanwhile, Iran's political will to pursue its nuclear ambitions appears undiminished, with some analysts suggesting that the recent strikes may ultimately accelerate, rather than deter, its nuclear development. Iran's leadership, especially Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is unlikely to negotiate from a position of perceived weakness. The recent military escalation follows the US "maximum pressure" campaign and its hostile stance towards Iran after withdrawing from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or Iran nuclear deal, in 2018. Together, these developments have reinforced Iranian mistrust and further narrowed the space for diplomacy. Furthermore, there is no credible assessment that the recent strikes have permanently crippled Iran's nuclear programme. Many analysts believe any setbacks will last only months, not years, and that Iran will simply shift operations deeper underground. Roadblocks to dominance The unresolved Palestinian question remains the greatest obstacle to expanding the Abraham Accords and achieving regional peace. Saudi Arabia has made its position clear: it demands an unambiguous commitment to establishing a Palestinian state. Yet the Netanyahu government - shaped by ultra-right forces - prioritises military dominance over meaningful negotiations, particularly in Gaza and the West Bank. Israel's military assault on Gaza has inflamed Arab public opinion, making normalisation politically costly for Gulf leaders. Without a clear post-war vision for Gaza and a comprehensive ceasefire, Israeli dominance is unsustainable. Follow Middle East Eye's live coverage of the Israel-Palestine war Regional actors, especially in the Gulf, fear appearing complicit with a state widely viewed as violating Arab rights. Israel's prolonged war in Gaza and lack of a political roadmap have tarnished its global image, leading to growing international condemnation and even weakening support from traditional allies like the EU (though it declined to take any action). Israel's military assault on Gaza has inflamed Arab public opinion, making normalisation politically costly for Gulf leaders The erosion of diplomatic support for Israel - alongside the continued refusal to hold it accountable for its war crimes - has only furthered its isolation, undermining any bid for genuine regional leadership. Meanwhile, Israeli national security doctrine under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu relies on military superiority as the only guarantee of peace. But even claimed military "victories" come at staggering human and economic costs - both for Palestinians and for Israelis. Even if external military actions temporarily consolidate internal support - as seen in Iran - they often fail to trigger regime change or long-term stability. Decades of foreign interventions have shown that externally imposed political transitions are more likely to produce chaos than lasting peace. Regional and internal pressures have compounded the challenges facing Israel's hegemonic ambitions. Gulf states, wary of Iranian collapse, fear the resulting chaos, humanitarian crisis, refugee flows and nuclear proliferation. Domestically, Netanyahu faces mounting pressure amid public frustration over his failure to secure a full ceasefire in Gaza or release all hostages - exposing internal fractures that challenge any coherent long-term strategy. Crucially, Israel has not established a legitimate Palestinian governing authority to assume control of Gaza, nor has it succeeded in imposing external or co-opted leadership. The result is chaos and the emergence of new resistance movements - mirroring US failures in Iraq and Afghanistan. Regional defiance Saudi Arabia has remained unwilling to embrace Israeli ambitions, insisting that any normalisation must be preceded by a concrete commitment to establishing a Palestinian state. However, Israel's aggression has made further agreements politically untenable. Gulf states must act to avoid Israel's war on Iran spiralling into chaos Hadi Kahalzadeh Read More » Some Gulf countries are reassessing their approach to Israel, questioning whether its actions foster stability or provoke further conflict. Many now prefer a long-term weakening of both Iran and Israel, rather than a decisive victory for either, to reduce threats to their own regimes. Saudi and Emirati strategies of hedging - including outreach to Iran - suggest a desire to avoid taking sides in regional conflicts, reducing their willingness to join an anti-Iran alliance led by Israel. Turkey, too, is unlikely to accept Israeli regional dominance. What was once a "golden age" of cooperation in the 1990s has devolved into mutual suspicion. Turkish leaders have grown increasingly vocal in their condemnation of Israel's actions, particularly in Gaza, and Ankara views Israel's deepening alliances with Greece and Cyprus as a threat. Turkey continues to build its own military and missile capabilities and asserts regional influence in Syria. It also positions itself as a potential mediator in Israeli-Iranian tensions - an indication of its desire to act independently. A fragile vision Trump's military campaign may have weakened Iran's nuclear ambitions and its regional allies, but long-term regional stability remains elusive. The current "peace" is more accurately described as a fragile truce than a durable shift. At its core, Israeli military superiority has failed to deliver political solutions. Without addressing the Palestinian question, stabilising Gaza, and navigating complex regional rivalries, lasting peace is impossible. Even if armed groups are temporarily subdued, the region's capacity to generate new forms of resistance endures Even if armed resistance groups such as Hezbollah or Hamas are temporarily subdued, the region's capacity to generate new forms of resistance endures. Israel may maintain its military edge, but it will continue to struggle for legitimacy and leadership in the Middle East. As violations of international law by the US and Israel mount, the message appears clear: "Only the weak follow the rules." Such a precedent erodes collective security and undermines any meaningful regional consensus. Real, enduring peace will not come through dominance alone - it demands diplomacy, justice, and the courage to confront the root causes of conflict. The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.