Heavy Rain, Strong Wind, And Potential Downpours On The Cards

Scoop

28-07-2025

Covering period of Monday 28 - Thursday 31 July
- Severe Weather Warnings and Watches issued for heavy rain and strong winds
- Potential upgrade to Red Heavy Rain Warning for southeast Tasman
- Large northeast swells expected for the east coast of the upper North Island.
MetService has issued Severe Weather Warnings and Watches for heavy rain and strong wind, as a frontal system is set to move slowly over the motu tomorrow (Tuesday). Large northeast swells are also expected for the east coast of the upper North Island.
While the front arrives early on Tuesday and departs to our east Wednesday afternoon, it packs a punch while it crosses the country. Blustery northeasterly winds, widespread heavy rain and even the potential for downpours are all on the cards.
Orange Heavy Rain Warnings have been issued over the North Island for Coromandel Peninsula, the Bay of Plenty, Taranaki Maunga, and the Central North Island mountains. For the South Island, Orange Heavy Rain Warnings are in force for Tasman, Nelson, western Marlborough, the ranges of Westland, and the headwaters of the Otago lakes and rivers, and of the Canterbury lakes and rivers south of Arthurs Pass. Much of the central and upper North Island is covered by Watches for heavy rain and strong wind.
MetService meteorologist Alwyn Bakker advises to pay extra attention to "Tasman east and south of Motueka, excluding Nelson City District, where there is a high chance the Orange Warning will be upgraded to a Red Warning. Aside from Motueka township, this is the same region that was covered by a Red Warning back on 11 July.' There is also a moderate risk for inland parts of the Bay of Plenty to be upgraded to a Red Warning.
Swells of 3 to 4.5 metres are forecast on Tuesday for parts of the coast between the Bay of Islands and Whakatane.
'Northeast swell is expected to peak at 4 metres in the Bay of Islands on Tuesday morning, and at 4-4.5 metres at Great Mercury Island in the evening. Northerly swell is expected to peak at 4-4.5 metres at Whakatane around midnight,' states Bakker.
Along with the wind and rain, overnight temperatures are expected to rise. Much of the North Island will stay above 10°C on Tuesday night. Whakatane will be particularly notable, with its overnight minimum of 13°C only two degrees cooler than its recorded maximum temperature on Sunday.
Towards the end of the working week, a deep low to the east of Aotearoa New Zealand is forecast to direct a strong southerly flow onto the eastern North Island, while a second low is expected to move east past the far north.
'At this stage, the risk of Severe Weather from Thursday onwards is minimal, but MetService advises that people keep an eye on the forecast,' Bakker notes.