Fantasy Football: Regression is coming for these WRs — one way or another

Yahoo

01-07-2025

In this installment of the touchdown trends series, we'll be taking a look at the wide receiver position. Last year's iteration of this piece was a smashing success. Chris Godwin was on pace for 12 scores before injury derailed his season, and both Garrett Wilson and Drake London more than doubled their 2023 touchdown totals in 2024. Meanwhile, while Courtland Sutton was still effective, he regressed slightly in the scoring department, while Tank Dell found the paint just three times in 14 games played.
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As always, the data isn't prophetic — and interpreting it isn't a perfect science — but there's clearly merit in the investigation. As a reminder, the strategy is to evaluate touchdown rates (per target) from various field positions and to spotlight the outlier players on both sides of the sample. Here's a look at the data from the last 10 years to set a baseline.
TD Rates by WRs. (Photo by 4for4.com)
With all this math in mind, here are six names to note coming off last season's results and heading into 2025 fantasy drafts.
Which Wide Receiver Should Score More in 2025?
Honorable Mention: I'm just going to throw it out there. Elijah Moore has major sleeper potential in Buffalo. After scoring at historically low rates with awful QB play his entire career, the 25-year-old now has a chance to make an impact with Josh Allen. All he has to do is find targets on a depth chart led by Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman,and Joshua Palmer. Not a bad dart throw at the end of best-ball drafts, or a waiver wire flag in redraft.
Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams
2024 Expected Total TDs - 5.1
2024 Actual Total TDs - 3
Total TDs Below Expectation - 2.1
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Puka Nacua is another incredibly easy lock to outscore his 2024 touchdown total, as he both missed six games and underperformed in the efficiency department. Nacua has not been a particularly great touchdown scorer in either of his first two seasons, but a lot of that could be attributed to the presence of Cooper Kupp and Demarcus Robinson. Those two receivers saw a combined 48 red-zone targets over the last two years, scoring 16 combined touchdowns, and both are out of the picture for 2025. Granted, they were replaced by Davante Adams, who's an effective red-zone threat himself, but statistically, we should still expect Nacua's red-zone opportunities to increase.
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Additionally, Matthew Stafford was hampered by injuries over various stretches of last season, and posted a 3.9% touchdown rate that fell well below his career average as a result. Given the talent and the tape on both Stafford and Nacua, I'm willing to bet on significant improvement in 2025. In fact, with Nacua's particularly dominant physical skills, I would not be shocked to see a huge touchdown breakout this season. With upwards of 150-160 targets on deck for the 23-year-old, expectation would set the line at 6-7 touchdowns — I'd take the over with the possibility to threaten for double-digit scores.
Which Wide Receivers Should Score Less in 2025?
Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders
2024 Expected Total TDs - 5.6
2024 Actual Total TDs - 13
Total TDs Above Expectation - 7.4
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Terry McLaurin's 13 touchdowns on 117 targets for a rate of 11.1% wasn't just the biggest outlier of 2024. It was tied for the third-highest in the last decade among wide receivers with 110+ targets in a season. The only names in that sample to post a higher rate were Mike Evans in 2021 (12.3%) and Davante Adams in 2020 (12.1%). The only other names in the sample to hit 10% or higher were Tyreek Hill (2020), Ja'Marr Chase (2021) and Mike Evans (2024). What I'm trying to tell you is that McLaurin's numbers were exceptionally inflated, and that he is not the caliber of receiver we might trust to repeat in the future. And the culprit was clear: McLaurin scored on 87.5% of his end-zone targets and 71.5% of his red-zone targets. That's patently absurd.
As good as Jayden Daniels is — and he's very good — this duo is not going to find that kind of scoring efficiency again in 2025. And while it's not impossible that McLaurin sees a bump in targets — he'd been closer to 130 the prior three years — that's still only six or seven touchdowns at league average scoring rates (which are better, in turn, than his own career rates before last year). McLaurin should be good again — perhaps middling WR2 levels of good — but his receiving TD total betting line is half of his 2025 touchdown total (6.5). There aren't many mathematical certainties in fantasy football, but I'd bet the house McLaurin scores less this season than he did last.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions
2024 Expected Total TDs - 6.8
2024 Actual Total TDs - 12
Total TDs Above Expectation - 5.2
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Through his first three career seasons, Amon-Ra St. Brown quickly established himself as one of the best possession receivers in the league. During that time, he logged a touchdown rate of 4.9%, almost exactly the league average. Then, in 2024, he hit 8.5% in total, while scoring on nine of 15 red-zone targets (60%). For some context on how "outliery" his production was, St. Brown's 11.0 yards per reception was the lowest by any player wideout to score 12+ touchdowns since T.J. Houshmandzadeh in 2007. St. Brown's skill set is very conducive to high target totals and high reception totals, but not to high touchdown totals. Even in a breakout 2023 season in which he scored 10 touchdowns for the first time, it took him 164 targets to get there at a touchdown rate of 6.1%.
On top of the mathematical concerns, we have to consider the departure of Ben Johnson. It's turned me a little sour on most of the Detroit offense at cost (perhaps excluding Jahmyr Gibbs), as I think it will hurt the offense's overall efficiency and presence in the red zone. We've also heard reports that the coaching staff is getting excited about Jameson Williams, who was a surprisingly effective scoring threat last year and could record more raw touchdowns in 2025. All told, despite how excellent ARSB is as a slot receiver and a possession star, I would almost guarantee he drops back below double-digit touchdowns in 2025. That does raise some concern at his first-round ADP. And while St. Brown is the safer bet with the higher floor, he has an even lower ceiling than someone like Brian Thomas Jr. does, and the missing touchdowns are a major reason why.
This story originally appeared in its full form on 4for4.com.