Iran retaliating against US inevitable as window for diplomacy narrows: analysts

South China Morning Post

4 hours ago

Iranian retaliation against the American air strikes ordered by President Donald Trump is inevitable, despite a diplomatic backchannel message from Washington to Tehran before the attack that it was intended as a one-off, according to analysts.
The only uncertainty, Middle East experts say, is how the Islamic republic will balance its responses so as to preserve the regime and show its potency within the region – if only to buy enough time to clandestinely build nuclear warheads.
'Trump just guaranteed that Iran will be a nuclear weapons state in the next five to 10 years – particularly if the regime changes,' said Trita Parsi, executive vice-president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, a Washington think tank.
According to James Acton, co-director of the Carnegie Endowment's nuclear policy programme, 'retaliation – especially ballistic missile strikes against US regional assets – is highly likely'.
But what comes next, including the US response, is unclear.
'That's why this may well not be 'one and done'', despite Trump's warning to Tehran not to retaliate, Acton said.