Xi takes push for global sway to Central Asia with Kazakh visit

Straits Times

11 hours ago

Chinese President Xi Jinping is heading to Kazakhstan for talks with Central Asian leaders, providing a counterpoint to a Group of Seven summit by visiting a vast region at the nexus of competing interests from Washington to Beijing.
Mr Xi, who's making only his third overseas trip this year, will meet with Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev on June 16 and attend the second gathering of the leaders of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan the following day.
The summit in the Kazakh capital Astana is taking place in parallel to the G-7 event in Canada, and comes days after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio met Kazakhstan's foreign minister in Washington. Mr Xi hosted the inaugural China-Central Asia Summit in the Chinese city of Xi'an two years ago.
A key objective for Mr Xi in Kazakhstan, where he launched the sprawling Belt and Road infrastructure initiative more than a decade ago, is 'future-proofing' China's economy for a potential rift with the US, according to Ms Kate Mallinson, a partner at PRISM Strategic Intelligence Ltd. in London.
'China has come out of the last three years significantly stronger in Central Asia,' she said. 'Having observed the West's attempts to use its economic influence to isolate Russia since 2022, China continues to make efforts to safeguard its economy and supply chains against any future confrontation with the US.'
US President Donald Trump's tariff war is likely to be high on the agenda as Mr Xi cultivates alliances in Central Asia, where jockeying for resources and political influence has intensified between major powers. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni visited last month and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen made a trip in April.
The region, which is home to vast reserves of uranium and oil, as well as rare earth metals, has grown in importance for China, providing overland routes for exporting to Europe.
At the same time, Russia's historical influence over the former Soviet republics has been undermined by President Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine, now well into its fourth year, allowing China to ramp up exports to a region with a gross domestic product of about US$500 billion.
The Chinese leader is visiting Kazakhstan for the third time since 2020, making the country of 20 million people one of his favorite destinations in the years after Covid-19 curtailed his global travels.
Mr Tokayev, who's been Kazakhstan's president since 2019, is a Mandarin speaker who once worked as a diplomat in China. His government has set the target of attracting US$150 billion in investment by 2029, when Mr Tokayev's term in office should come to an end.
It's a goal that may require greater involvement from China, given Russia's diminishing role in the region. China has committed a total of $26 billion in capital, according to official Kazakh estimates, making it a top 5 investor behind the likes of the US and Switzerland.
'China's development needs a thriving Central Asia,' Mr Liu Jianchao, who heads the Communist Party's diplomatic arm, said in a speech in March. 'China welcomes Central Asian countries to take a free ride from China's growth and opening up.'
China has sought to counter the US-led global order – a goal it shares with Russia – in part by courting the Global South. In recent months, Mr Xi has attended summits with regional blocs, using meetings with countries from Latin America and Africa to push for closer ties.
China has also used rival groups to the G-7, such as the BRICS club of nations, named after early members Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, and to which Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are partners. The group, which was considering a common currency, will meet in July.
At a seminar in Shanghai this month, Chinese academics highlighted the significance of Beijing's cooperation with Central Asia in curbing ethnic conflicts and separatism, according to a state media report.
China has meanwhile made economic inroads into Central Asia, increasing bilateral trade as well as expanding investment into areas ranging from energy to railways.
Since 2023, China has outstripped Russia as Kazakhstan's largest trading partner. That's despite the fact that Central Asia's largest economy is, along with neighboring Kyrgyzstan, a member of a Moscow-led customs union.
China's exports to the five Central Asian countries rose by more than 40 per cent in both 2022 and 2023 as its firms, such as Huawei Technologies Co. and BYD Co., expanded market share. That growth slowed last year, but it was almost three times the level in the same period in 2021 – the year before the Ukraine invasion – through the first four months of 2025.
More business deals will likely be on the table as the Chinese and Kazakh leaders meet.
China's East Hope Group seeks to build an aluminum smelter capable of producing 1 million tonnes of the metal a year in Kazakhstan. It's part of a large industrial project with an estimated price tag of over $12 billion, according to the state-run Kazakh Invest company. BLOOMBERG
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