The second scramble for Africa's mineral wealth
https://arab.news/6c2j7
An accelerating global push to combat climate change has unintentionally elevated Africa to a position of unprecedented strategic importance.
The continent has nearly a third of the planet's known mineral reserves, including commanding shares of elements essential for decarbonization technology: 85 percent of global manganese, 80 percent of platinum group metals and chromium, and an estimated 70 percent of cobalt, concentrated primarily in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
These elements — lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite, rare earths — form the physical foundation for electric vehicle batteries, renewable energy systems, and the advanced electronics critical for future green economies.
As major economies aggressively pursue net-zero targets, securing reliable supplies of these materials has become synonymous with efforts to secure future economic competitiveness and national security.
However, this convergence of ecological necessity and resource dependency is resurrecting deep-seated fears of renewed, intense competition for African resources, echoing historical patterns of extraction but amplified by 21st century geopolitics and the immense financial stakes of the inevitable energy transition.
A lopsided equation is undercutting current dynamics, in which immense mineral wealth fails to translate into commensurate local socioeconomic benefits. Sub-Saharan African economies capture, on average, a mere $2 of every $5 of potential revenues from the extraction and export of their natural resources.
The disconnect is sharply illustrated by the bauxite-aluminum value chain. The export of raw bauxite ore yields about $92 a tonne, while the export of refined aluminum commands prices of nearly $2,438 a tonne, earning exporters of the latter over 25 times more than exporters of the raw ore.
At present, the focus is on the Democratic Republic of the Congo. It possesses the world's largest reserves of cobalt, which is critical for production of lithium-ion batteries, and remains overwhelmingly dependent on exports of raw or minimally processed materials.
Most of the country's exports of critical minerals flows to China, which refines more than 60 percent of the world's lithium and 85 percent of rare earth elements. China's established dominance, built over decades through strategic industrial policies rather than vast domestic reserves, has led to Beijing's control over processing capacity, granting it significant leverage as exemplified by recent export controls on minor metals such as gallium and germanium.
However, the reliance of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and the rest of Africa, on raw exports leaves economies there acutely vulnerable to commodity price swings, and denies them the jobs, technological transfers, and industrial development inherent in midstream and downstream processing.
This persistent failure to capture added value represents a systemic economic failure that is perpetuating dependence despite possession of the very resources driving global technological advancement.
In response, the US and its allies are scrambling to reduce these emergent vulnerabilities. Initiatives such as the Minerals Security Partnership aim to 'friendshore' supply chains among allied nations, while significant investments seek to boost domestic processing and recycling.
At present, the US remains import dependent for 15 critical minerals, and more than 50 percent reliant for 34 others, with China supplying nearly half. This dependency is now driving rare, assertive diplomatic and commercial overtures toward mineral-rich African states — but they follow the same old formula of intense extractionism at the continent's expense.
The contrasting approaches — multilateral partnerships versus unilateral actions, including overt pressure on resource access — are the hallmarks of the high-stakes nature of this brewing competition with Africa at its heart. The most immediate risk is a fragmentation of global supply chains along geopolitical lines, forcing African nations to make difficult choices.
Africa's strategies must incorporate aggressive investment in domestic research and development.
Hafed Al-Ghwell
Optimistically, the meteoric growth in demand for Africa's critical minerals presents a potential inflection point. Properly harnessed, the revenue streams from these minerals, potentially worth trillions of dollars in the coming decades as demand soars, could catalyze fundamental transformations. Investment could flow into long-neglected areas, funding reliable electricity generation, modern transportation networks and, crucially, education and skills development in fields such as metallurgy, chemical engineering, and environmental sciences.
A move beyond raw exports, for instance, to establish domestic refining and manufacture of components, such as battery precursors, is essential for African nations to capture more value from their resources and build resilient, diversified economies.
Ghana's policy framework that bans raw mineral exports and promotes value-chain development, and nascent efforts such as a collaboration between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Zambia on battery production, signal recognition of this imperative.
Regional cooperation, such as exports of raw lithium from Zambia for refining in South Africa, offers further potential for shared industrial development.
However, challenging obstacles threaten to derail the potential this holds and instead entrench a new era of even more exploitative relationships. Decades of mismanagement under the so-called 'resource curse,' weak governance, institutional fragility, pervasive corruption, and the tendency of elites to view national resources as private revenue streams for patronage networks rather than for the public good, remain pervasive challenges.
Without robust democratic accountability, transparency mechanisms such as contract disclosures, and effective civil society oversight, any mineral windfalls are likely to fuel instability and inequality rather than broad-based, 'bottom up, middle out' development.
Furthermore, the current lack of industrial capacity and technical expertise in Africa creates a dependency trap. Policies mandating local processing, such as Zimbabwe's requirement for lithium-refinement plans, often crash on the rocks of inadequate infrastructure and skills. After all, investors are less likely to pour money into a country that bleeds more than 6 percent of gross domestic product every year due to electricity shortfalls alone.
The continent's negligible share of the global electric vehicle market, less than 1 percent, further complicates efforts to attract high-value manufacturing, as firms prioritize locations closer to large consumer bases, such as China, Europe, and North America.
Perhaps the most underappreciated threat is technological obsolescence. The breakneck pace of innovation in materials science could rapidly devalue Africa's present mineral advantages. China's massive investments in sodium-ion battery technology, culminating in the opening of the world's largest storage system in 2024, aim to reduce dependence on lithium and cobalt.
A successful large-scale transition to such alternatives could leave lithium and cobalt-rich African nations with 'stranded assets' if their resources are suddenly less critical to the global energy transition.
Focusing solely on current extraction efforts and battery chemistry is therefore profoundly shortsighted. Africa's strategies must incorporate aggressive investment in domestic research and development, anticipate substitutions of materials, and position themselves within future, not only current, value chains.
Failure to do so risks repeating the mistakes of history: immense wealth extracted, fleeting benefits captured locally and monopolized by cronyism, and enduring vulnerabilities left behind.
The path forward demands a fundamental break from past practices. For African states, success hinges on the prioritization of long-term governance reforms, institutional strengthening, massive investment in human capital and infrastructure, and strategic regional integration to achieve economies of scale.
Policies must be ruthlessly pragmatic, aligning industrial ambitions with realistic assessments of current capabilities while aggressively building future ones.
The alternative, a frenzied rush for resources without addressing the root causes of Africa's historical marginalization within the global economy, risks not only the perpetuation of underdevelopment but also the fueling of instability that could disrupt the very supply chains the energy transition depends on.
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Arab News
6 hours ago
- Arab News
The second scramble for Africa's mineral wealth
An accelerating global push to combat climate change has unintentionally elevated Africa to a position of unprecedented strategic importance. The continent has nearly a third of the planet's known mineral reserves, including commanding shares of elements essential for decarbonization technology: 85 percent of global manganese, 80 percent of platinum group metals and chromium, and an estimated 70 percent of cobalt, concentrated primarily in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. These elements — lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite, rare earths — form the physical foundation for electric vehicle batteries, renewable energy systems, and the advanced electronics critical for future green economies. As major economies aggressively pursue net-zero targets, securing reliable supplies of these materials has become synonymous with efforts to secure future economic competitiveness and national security. However, this convergence of ecological necessity and resource dependency is resurrecting deep-seated fears of renewed, intense competition for African resources, echoing historical patterns of extraction but amplified by 21st century geopolitics and the immense financial stakes of the inevitable energy transition. A lopsided equation is undercutting current dynamics, in which immense mineral wealth fails to translate into commensurate local socioeconomic benefits. Sub-Saharan African economies capture, on average, a mere $2 of every $5 of potential revenues from the extraction and export of their natural resources. The disconnect is sharply illustrated by the bauxite-aluminum value chain. The export of raw bauxite ore yields about $92 a tonne, while the export of refined aluminum commands prices of nearly $2,438 a tonne, earning exporters of the latter over 25 times more than exporters of the raw ore. At present, the focus is on the Democratic Republic of the Congo. It possesses the world's largest reserves of cobalt, which is critical for production of lithium-ion batteries, and remains overwhelmingly dependent on exports of raw or minimally processed materials. Most of the country's exports of critical minerals flows to China, which refines more than 60 percent of the world's lithium and 85 percent of rare earth elements. China's established dominance, built over decades through strategic industrial policies rather than vast domestic reserves, has led to Beijing's control over processing capacity, granting it significant leverage as exemplified by recent export controls on minor metals such as gallium and germanium. However, the reliance of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and the rest of Africa, on raw exports leaves economies there acutely vulnerable to commodity price swings, and denies them the jobs, technological transfers, and industrial development inherent in midstream and downstream processing. This persistent failure to capture added value represents a systemic economic failure that is perpetuating dependence despite possession of the very resources driving global technological advancement. In response, the US and its allies are scrambling to reduce these emergent vulnerabilities. Initiatives such as the Minerals Security Partnership aim to 'friendshore' supply chains among allied nations, while significant investments seek to boost domestic processing and recycling. At present, the US remains import dependent for 15 critical minerals, and more than 50 percent reliant for 34 others, with China supplying nearly half. This dependency is now driving rare, assertive diplomatic and commercial overtures toward mineral-rich African states — but they follow the same old formula of intense extractionism at the continent's expense. The contrasting approaches — multilateral partnerships versus unilateral actions, including overt pressure on resource access — are the hallmarks of the high-stakes nature of this brewing competition with Africa at its heart. The most immediate risk is a fragmentation of global supply chains along geopolitical lines, forcing African nations to make difficult choices. Africa's strategies must incorporate aggressive investment in domestic research and development. Hafed Al-Ghwell Optimistically, the meteoric growth in demand for Africa's critical minerals presents a potential inflection point. Properly harnessed, the revenue streams from these minerals, potentially worth trillions of dollars in the coming decades as demand soars, could catalyze fundamental transformations. Investment could flow into long-neglected areas, funding reliable electricity generation, modern transportation networks and, crucially, education and skills development in fields such as metallurgy, chemical engineering, and environmental sciences. A move beyond raw exports, for instance, to establish domestic refining and manufacture of components, such as battery precursors, is essential for African nations to capture more value from their resources and build resilient, diversified economies. Ghana's policy framework that bans raw mineral exports and promotes value-chain development, and nascent efforts such as a collaboration between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Zambia on battery production, signal recognition of this imperative. Regional cooperation, such as exports of raw lithium from Zambia for refining in South Africa, offers further potential for shared industrial development. However, challenging obstacles threaten to derail the potential this holds and instead entrench a new era of even more exploitative relationships. Decades of mismanagement under the so-called 'resource curse,' weak governance, institutional fragility, pervasive corruption, and the tendency of elites to view national resources as private revenue streams for patronage networks rather than for the public good, remain pervasive challenges. Without robust democratic accountability, transparency mechanisms such as contract disclosures, and effective civil society oversight, any mineral windfalls are likely to fuel instability and inequality rather than broad-based, 'bottom up, middle out' development. Furthermore, the current lack of industrial capacity and technical expertise in Africa creates a dependency trap. Policies mandating local processing, such as Zimbabwe's requirement for lithium-refinement plans, often crash on the rocks of inadequate infrastructure and skills. After all, investors are less likely to pour money into a country that bleeds more than 6 percent of gross domestic product every year due to electricity shortfalls alone. The continent's negligible share of the global electric vehicle market, less than 1 percent, further complicates efforts to attract high-value manufacturing, as firms prioritize locations closer to large consumer bases, such as China, Europe, and North America. Perhaps the most underappreciated threat is technological obsolescence. The breakneck pace of innovation in materials science could rapidly devalue Africa's present mineral advantages. China's massive investments in sodium-ion battery technology, culminating in the opening of the world's largest storage system in 2024, aim to reduce dependence on lithium and cobalt. A successful large-scale transition to such alternatives could leave lithium and cobalt-rich African nations with 'stranded assets' if their resources are suddenly less critical to the global energy transition. Focusing solely on current extraction efforts and battery chemistry is therefore profoundly shortsighted. Africa's strategies must incorporate aggressive investment in domestic research and development, anticipate substitutions of materials, and position themselves within future, not only current, value chains. Failure to do so risks repeating the mistakes of history: immense wealth extracted, fleeting benefits captured locally and monopolized by cronyism, and enduring vulnerabilities left behind. The path forward demands a fundamental break from past practices. For African states, success hinges on the prioritization of long-term governance reforms, institutional strengthening, massive investment in human capital and infrastructure, and strategic regional integration to achieve economies of scale. Policies must be ruthlessly pragmatic, aligning industrial ambitions with realistic assessments of current capabilities while aggressively building future ones. The alternative, a frenzied rush for resources without addressing the root causes of Africa's historical marginalization within the global economy, risks not only the perpetuation of underdevelopment but also the fueling of instability that could disrupt the very supply chains the energy transition depends on.
Arab News
20 hours ago
- Arab News
Drought, rising prices and dwindling herds undercut this year's Eid Al-Adha in North Africa
CASABLANCA: Flocks of sheep once quilted Morocco's mountain pastures, stretched across Algeria's vast plateaus and grazed along Tunisia's green coastline. But the cascading effects of climate change have sparked a region-wide shortage that is being felt acutely as Muslims throughout North Africa celebrate Eid Al-Adha. Each year, Muslims slaughter sheep to honor a passage of the Qur'an in which the prophet Ibrahim prepared to sacrifice his son as an act of obedience to God, who intervened and replaced the child with a sheep. But this year, rising prices and falling supply are creating new challenges, breeders and potential buyers throughout the region say. At a market in suburban Algiers last week, breeders explained to angry patrons that their prices had increased because the cost of everything needed to raise sheep, including animal feed, transport and veterinary care, had grown. Slimane Aouadi stood watching livestock pens, discussing with his wife whether to buy a sheep to celebrate this year's Eid. 'It's the same sheep as the one I bought last year, the same look and the same weight, but it costs $75 more,' Aouadi, a doctor, said. Amid soaring inflation, sheep can sell for more than $1,200, an exorbitant amount in a country where average monthly incomes hover below $270. Tradition meets reality Any disruption to the ritual sacrifice can be sensitive, a blow to religious tradition and source of anger toward rising prices and the hardship they bring. So Morocco and Algeria have resorted to unprecedented measures. Algerian officials earlier this year announced plans to import a staggering 1 million sheep to make up for domestic shortages. Morocco's King Mohammed VI broke with tradition and urged Muslims to abstain from the Eid sacrifice. Local officials across the kingdom have closed livestock markets, preventing customers from buying sheep for this year's celebrations. 'Our country is facing climatic and economic challenges that have resulted in a substantial decline in livestock numbers. Performing the sacrifice in these difficult circumstances will cause real harm to large segments of our people, especially those with limited incomes,' the king, who is also Morocco's highest religious authority, wrote in a February letter read on national television. Trucks have unloaded thousands of sheep in new markets in Algiers and the surrounding suburbs. University of Toulouse agro-economist Lotfi Gharnaout told the state-run newspaper El Moudjahid that Algeria's import strategy could cost between $230 and $260 million and still not even meet nationwide demand. Thinning pastures Overgrazing has long strained parts of North Africa where the population is growing and job opportunities beyond herding and farming are scarce. But after seven years of drought, it's the lack of rainfall and skyrocketing feed prices that are now shrinking herds. Drought conditions, experts say, have degraded forage lands where shepherds graze their flocks and farmers grow cereals to be sold as animal feed. With less supply, prices have spiked beyond the reach of middle class families who have historically purchased sheep for slaughter. Moroccan economist Najib Akesbi said shrinking herds stemmed directly from vegetation loss in grazing areas. The prolonged drought has compounded inflation already fueled by the war in Ukraine. 'Most livestock farming in North Africa is pastoral, which means it's farming that relies purely on nature, like wild plants and forests, and vegetation that grows off rainwater,' Akesbi, a former professor at Hassan II Institute of Agronomy and Veterinary Medicine, said. For breeders, he added, livestock serve as a kind of bank, assets they sell to cover expenses and repay debts. With consecutive years of drought and rising feed costs, breeders are seeing their reserves drained. Pressed herders With less natural vegetation, breeders have to spend more on supplemental feed, Acharf Majdoubi, president of Morocco's Association of Sheep and Goat Breeders said. In good years, pastures can nourish nearly all of what sheep flocks require, but in dry years, it can be as low as half or a third of the feed required. 'We have to make up the rest by buying feed like straw and barley,' he said. Not only do they need more feed. The price of barley, straw and alfalfa – much of which has to be imported – has also spiked. In Morocco, the price of barley and straw are three times what they were before the drought, while the price of alfalfa has more than doubled. 'The future of this profession is very difficult. Breeders leave the countryside to immigrate to the city, and some will never come back,' Achraf Majdoubi said.
Al Arabiya
21 hours ago
- Al Arabiya
Trump signs orders to bolster US drone defenses, boost supersonic flight
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