‘The Late Show With Stephen Colbert' surging in Emmy predictions after shocking cancellation
When the 2025 Emmy nominations were announced on July 15, the Best Variety Talk Series race appeared to be a slam dunk for The Daily Show. However, following CBS' so-called "purely financial decision" to end The Late Show With Stephen Colbert on July 17, the forecast has become clouded.
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The Late Show has a 26 percent chance of winning the Emmy, according to the Gold Derby predictions. That's a 19-point surge from the 7 percent chance the show had on the day it was canceled. Stephen Colbert's ascension is the direct result of Gold Derby's experts, editors, and users updating their picks, no doubt believing Television Academy members might want to reward The Late Show for what many see as a political decision, and provide a platform for a charged acceptance Emmy speech from Colbert.
Meanwhile, The Daily Show has seen its hopes drop significantly over that same time period. It still leads the Best Variety Talk Series race with a 70 percent chance of winning, but it's down 19 points from 10 days ago. The third nominee, Jimmy Kimmel Live, has remained steady in our rankings at 4 percent.
Variety Talk Series
Contender
Odds
1.
The Daily Show
69.2%
2.
Late Show with Stephen Colbert
27.1%
3.
Jimmy Kimmel Live
3.8%
The Daily Show, the reigning champion in this category, rotates hosts among Jon Stewart, Ronny Chieng, Jordan Klepper, Michael Kosta, and Desi Lydic. In 2024, the long-running political satire welcomed back Stewart, who originally hosted from 1999 to 2015, to give his comedic take on the presidential election. He still hosts every Monday night, and he recently extended his contract through the end of 2025. Various iterations of The Daily Show have won this Emmy contest a leading 11 times, and a 12th victory would extend its record.
Comparatively, The Late Show With Stephen Colbert has never won an Emmy in any category, despite 33 total nominations. (The Showtime special Stephen Colbert's Election Night 2020: Democracy's Last Stand Building Back America Great Again Better 2020 did win an Emmy in 2021 for Best Variety Special — Live.) Colbert's first late-night talker, The Colbert Report, took home seven Emmy Awards during its 10-year reign. He left that series in 2014 to take the reins of The Late Show after David Letterman retired.
Fun fact: Jon Stewart is a producer on both The Daily Show and The Late Show, so he'd win an Emmy if either program were to prevail. But there is a third talk show in contention.
Jimmy Kimmel Live is a three-time Emmy winner for costumes, picture editing, and music and lyrics ("I'm F--king Matt Damon"), though it's never won the top prize for Best Variety Talk Series. Jimmy Kimmel himself has three Emmys on his mantel for hosting the 2024 Oscars and for producing two installments of Live in Front of a Studio Audience in 2019 and 2020.
This year, because there were only 13 submissions on the Emmy ballot, the Best Variety Talk Series category dropped from four nominees to a historic low of three. Left out in the cold were Everybody's Live With John Mulaney, Hot Ones, Late Night With Seth Meyers, Have I Got News for You, The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon, Very Important People, Hart to Heart, Real Time With Bill Maher, Midnight Snack With Julie Chan, and Watch What Happens Live With Andy Cohen.
Colbert announced his cancellation during the July 17 broadcast. "Before I start the show, I want to announce something I found out just last night: Next year will be our last season. The network will be ending The Late Show in May," he said. Several boos were heard from the crowd, prompting Colbert to respond, "Yeah, I share your feelings."
The host and producer also thanked the 200 people who worked on the program, saying, "It is a fantastic job. I wish someone else was getting it. I am looking forward to doing it for the next 10 months." CBS is retiring The Late Show franchise entirely, concluding a 30-plus-year run that began in 1993 with Letterman.
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