China's latest boom is sounding alarm bells in America
Akeso's debut on the world stage has been described as a 'DeepSeek' moment for the industry – a reference to the sudden emergence of a highly advanced AI chatbot out of China earlier this year, which took US tech giants by surprise and wiped close to $US1 trillion ($1.5 trillion) off global stock markets.
Summit's shares are up more than 600 per cent since first announcing the lung cancer trial results.
'The two large innovators in our industry today are the US and China,' Sir Pascal Soriot, the boss of AstraZeneca, said in March. 'China is, I think over the next five to 10 years, going to emerge as really a driving force for innovation in our sector.'
It sets the stage for a growing tussle between the US and China over the future of drug development. Donald Trump has been clear that he wants pharmaceutical giants to be investing more in America. Biopharmaceutical companies and their suppliers account for 4.9 million jobs and are worth around $US1.65 trillion ($2.6 trillion) to the US.
However, drug companies are increasingly turning east when it comes to investing in new drugs and clinical trials. Not only is China becoming an easier place to research and create new drugs, but the Trump administration is also shaking faith in the US.
Vaccine sceptic health secretary Robert F Kennedy Jr has prompted much anxiety in the industry. By contrast, China is 'very business friendly and stable' Novartis boss Vas Narasimhan said in May.
Drugs boom
Beijing has been attempting to win more pharma investment for years – and specifically attempting to boost funding for drug innovation. Drug discovery was a key pillar of the 'Healthy China 2030″ strategy unveiled in 2016, aimed at helping the country cope with its ageing population.
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The focus has already paid dividends. Over the past three years alone, the number of Chinese drugs in development has doubled to 4,391. Almost half are either novel drugs or something known as a 'fast-follower', where treatments are quickly developed on the back of breakthroughs by rivals.
According to Barclays, the number of so-called 'first-in-class' drugs under development in China rose to around 120 last year, having been in the single digits in 2015. First-in-class essentially measures the level of innovation by looking at the highest development stage a drug has reached and the earliest time it reached that stage.
The growth in China is unmatched. While the US, which has long been regarded as the world leader in drug discovery, has more first-in-class drugs in development, at 151, the growth rate has been much slower.
'The shift isn't incremental, it's tectonic,' says Abhishek Jha, the founder of life sciences data company Elucidata.
One crucial part of Beijing's push to drive more drug discovery has been speeding up clinical trials. In China, regulators allow businesses to get studies up and running quicker, and then update them as they progress.
This can provide early data on new drugs, which is a major draw for multinational companies looking for novel treatments that show signs of working well.
It has sparked a boom in studies taking place in China. According to figures from the International Federation of Pharmaceutical Manufacturers and Associations (IFPMA), China accounted for around 18 per cent of clinical trials sponsored by companies in 2023 compared to just 5 per cent in 2013. Meanwhile, the US proportion has dipped from 28 per cent to 23 per cent.
Clinical trial enrolment in China is surging, with around 40 per cent now having more than 100 participants.
Bitter pill
Fewer regulatory barriers are just one of a number of reasons pharma companies are turning to China. Workers, too, are less averse to working unsociable hours than they would be in Western nations.
Shirley Chen, a Barclays analyst, says: 'Chinese scientists may be happier to accept very long work hours and people like hospital personnel [where trials take place] are actually okay to do night shifts.'
Major drug giants are now scouring China for potential deals. The likes of GSK, AstraZeneca and Merck have all struck deals worth more than $US1 billion to get the rights to develop and sell Chinese drugs outside the country.
The rise of China's pharmaceutical industry has started to raise alarm bells in the US. Trump may be focused on returning manufacturing jobs to the US, yet some say he should be concerned that more high-quality jobs and research posts are starting to drift to China.
'Five years ago, US pharmaceutical companies didn't license any new drugs from China,' Scott Gottlied, the former Food and Drug Administration commissioner, wrote earlier this month. 'By 2024, one third of their new compounds were coming from Chinese biotechnology firms.'
He warned that the shift of clinical trials to Asia could undermine innovation in the US as companies choose to 'divert funds that might otherwise bolster innovation hubs such as Boston's Kendall Square or North Carolina's Research Triangle'.
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'The US biotechnology industry was the world's envy, but if we're not careful, every drug could be made in China.'
While Trump exempted most countries' pharmaceutical industries from tariffs in his 'liberation day' blitz, China was not spared. That means physically manufacturing drugs for the US in China is out of the question, for now at least.
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The Advertiser
38 minutes ago
- The Advertiser
China duties on Canadian canola may advantage Australia
China has announced preliminary anti-dumping duties on Canadian canola imports in a new escalation in the year-long trade dispute that began with Canada's imposition of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicle imports last August. The provisional rate will be set at 75.8 per cent, effective from Thursday, the Ministry of Commerce said in a statement. Canola Council of Canada president Chris Davison said that rate makes the Chinese market effectively closed for Canadian canola, to which Canada exported about C$5 billion ($A5.60 billion) of the oilseed crop in 2024. ICE November canola futures fell as much as 6.5 per cent to a four-month low after the announcement. "This really came as a surprise and a shock," trader Tony Tryhuk of RBC Dominion Securities said. China, the world's largest importer of canola which is also known as rapeseed, sources nearly all its supplies of the product from Canada. The steep duties would likely all but end imports if they are maintained. "This is huge. Who will pay a 75 per cent deposit to bring Canadian canola to China? It is like telling Canada that we don't need your canola, thank you very much," one Singapore-based oilseed trader said. China imposed tariffs on canola oil and meal in March. Canada is now in a trade conflict with the world's two largest economies, as it also faces tariffs on goods from the United States. Canada's number one canola market is the US, followed by China. China's Ministry of Commerce said an anti-dumping probe launched in September 2024 had found that Canada's agricultural sector - particularly the canola industry - had benefited from substantial government subsidies and preferential policies. The Canadian government and canola industry have previously rejected allegations of dumping. The industry believes China's complaint is based on other ongoing trade and political disputes, Davison said. A final ruling could result in a different rate, or overturn Tuesday's decision. The decision marks a shift from the conciliatory tone struck in June when China Premier Li Qiang said there were no deep-seated conflicts of interest between the countries during a phone call with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney. "This move ... will put additional pressure on Canada's government to sort through trade frictions with China," said Trivium China agriculture analyst Even Rogers Pay. Canada's trade, agriculture and prime minister's office did not immediately respond to request for comment. Canada has imposed tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, steel and aluminium. Separately, China also launched an anti-dumping investigation into Canadian pea starch and imposed provisional duties on imports of halogenated butyl rubber, according to ministry statements. Replacing millions of tons of Canadian canola is likely to be difficult at short notice, analysts say. China uses imported canola to make animal feed for its aquaculture sector, as well as for cooking oil. The move provides an opportunity for Australia, which looks set to regain access to the Chinese market with test cargoes this year after a years-long freeze in the trade, Pay said. Australia, the second-largest canola exporter, has been shut out of the Chinese market since 2020 due mainly to Chinese rules to stop the spread of fungal plant disease. However, even if Australian imports increase, "fully replacing Canadian canola will be very difficult unless import demand drops sharply," said Donatas Jankauskas, an analyst with commodity data firm CM Navigator. Davison said his industry believes China will need Canada's canola to meet the sort of demand it has experienced in recent years. "I think the expectation would be that they could not meet those needs with a quality of a product and the volume that we provide," Davison said. Canadian farmers are about to begin harvesting canola and will not be happy to see prices plunge, Canadian Canola Growers Association president Rick White said. As long as the prohibitive duty is there farmers face suppressed prices. "It's going to certainly have a damping effect on price for farmers and they're going to be stuck with that," White said. China has announced preliminary anti-dumping duties on Canadian canola imports in a new escalation in the year-long trade dispute that began with Canada's imposition of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicle imports last August. The provisional rate will be set at 75.8 per cent, effective from Thursday, the Ministry of Commerce said in a statement. Canola Council of Canada president Chris Davison said that rate makes the Chinese market effectively closed for Canadian canola, to which Canada exported about C$5 billion ($A5.60 billion) of the oilseed crop in 2024. ICE November canola futures fell as much as 6.5 per cent to a four-month low after the announcement. "This really came as a surprise and a shock," trader Tony Tryhuk of RBC Dominion Securities said. China, the world's largest importer of canola which is also known as rapeseed, sources nearly all its supplies of the product from Canada. The steep duties would likely all but end imports if they are maintained. "This is huge. Who will pay a 75 per cent deposit to bring Canadian canola to China? It is like telling Canada that we don't need your canola, thank you very much," one Singapore-based oilseed trader said. China imposed tariffs on canola oil and meal in March. Canada is now in a trade conflict with the world's two largest economies, as it also faces tariffs on goods from the United States. Canada's number one canola market is the US, followed by China. China's Ministry of Commerce said an anti-dumping probe launched in September 2024 had found that Canada's agricultural sector - particularly the canola industry - had benefited from substantial government subsidies and preferential policies. The Canadian government and canola industry have previously rejected allegations of dumping. The industry believes China's complaint is based on other ongoing trade and political disputes, Davison said. A final ruling could result in a different rate, or overturn Tuesday's decision. The decision marks a shift from the conciliatory tone struck in June when China Premier Li Qiang said there were no deep-seated conflicts of interest between the countries during a phone call with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney. "This move ... will put additional pressure on Canada's government to sort through trade frictions with China," said Trivium China agriculture analyst Even Rogers Pay. Canada's trade, agriculture and prime minister's office did not immediately respond to request for comment. Canada has imposed tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, steel and aluminium. Separately, China also launched an anti-dumping investigation into Canadian pea starch and imposed provisional duties on imports of halogenated butyl rubber, according to ministry statements. Replacing millions of tons of Canadian canola is likely to be difficult at short notice, analysts say. China uses imported canola to make animal feed for its aquaculture sector, as well as for cooking oil. The move provides an opportunity for Australia, which looks set to regain access to the Chinese market with test cargoes this year after a years-long freeze in the trade, Pay said. Australia, the second-largest canola exporter, has been shut out of the Chinese market since 2020 due mainly to Chinese rules to stop the spread of fungal plant disease. However, even if Australian imports increase, "fully replacing Canadian canola will be very difficult unless import demand drops sharply," said Donatas Jankauskas, an analyst with commodity data firm CM Navigator. Davison said his industry believes China will need Canada's canola to meet the sort of demand it has experienced in recent years. "I think the expectation would be that they could not meet those needs with a quality of a product and the volume that we provide," Davison said. Canadian farmers are about to begin harvesting canola and will not be happy to see prices plunge, Canadian Canola Growers Association president Rick White said. As long as the prohibitive duty is there farmers face suppressed prices. "It's going to certainly have a damping effect on price for farmers and they're going to be stuck with that," White said. China has announced preliminary anti-dumping duties on Canadian canola imports in a new escalation in the year-long trade dispute that began with Canada's imposition of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicle imports last August. The provisional rate will be set at 75.8 per cent, effective from Thursday, the Ministry of Commerce said in a statement. Canola Council of Canada president Chris Davison said that rate makes the Chinese market effectively closed for Canadian canola, to which Canada exported about C$5 billion ($A5.60 billion) of the oilseed crop in 2024. ICE November canola futures fell as much as 6.5 per cent to a four-month low after the announcement. "This really came as a surprise and a shock," trader Tony Tryhuk of RBC Dominion Securities said. China, the world's largest importer of canola which is also known as rapeseed, sources nearly all its supplies of the product from Canada. The steep duties would likely all but end imports if they are maintained. "This is huge. Who will pay a 75 per cent deposit to bring Canadian canola to China? It is like telling Canada that we don't need your canola, thank you very much," one Singapore-based oilseed trader said. China imposed tariffs on canola oil and meal in March. Canada is now in a trade conflict with the world's two largest economies, as it also faces tariffs on goods from the United States. Canada's number one canola market is the US, followed by China. China's Ministry of Commerce said an anti-dumping probe launched in September 2024 had found that Canada's agricultural sector - particularly the canola industry - had benefited from substantial government subsidies and preferential policies. The Canadian government and canola industry have previously rejected allegations of dumping. The industry believes China's complaint is based on other ongoing trade and political disputes, Davison said. A final ruling could result in a different rate, or overturn Tuesday's decision. The decision marks a shift from the conciliatory tone struck in June when China Premier Li Qiang said there were no deep-seated conflicts of interest between the countries during a phone call with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney. "This move ... will put additional pressure on Canada's government to sort through trade frictions with China," said Trivium China agriculture analyst Even Rogers Pay. Canada's trade, agriculture and prime minister's office did not immediately respond to request for comment. Canada has imposed tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, steel and aluminium. Separately, China also launched an anti-dumping investigation into Canadian pea starch and imposed provisional duties on imports of halogenated butyl rubber, according to ministry statements. Replacing millions of tons of Canadian canola is likely to be difficult at short notice, analysts say. China uses imported canola to make animal feed for its aquaculture sector, as well as for cooking oil. The move provides an opportunity for Australia, which looks set to regain access to the Chinese market with test cargoes this year after a years-long freeze in the trade, Pay said. Australia, the second-largest canola exporter, has been shut out of the Chinese market since 2020 due mainly to Chinese rules to stop the spread of fungal plant disease. However, even if Australian imports increase, "fully replacing Canadian canola will be very difficult unless import demand drops sharply," said Donatas Jankauskas, an analyst with commodity data firm CM Navigator. Davison said his industry believes China will need Canada's canola to meet the sort of demand it has experienced in recent years. "I think the expectation would be that they could not meet those needs with a quality of a product and the volume that we provide," Davison said. Canadian farmers are about to begin harvesting canola and will not be happy to see prices plunge, Canadian Canola Growers Association president Rick White said. As long as the prohibitive duty is there farmers face suppressed prices. "It's going to certainly have a damping effect on price for farmers and they're going to be stuck with that," White said. China has announced preliminary anti-dumping duties on Canadian canola imports in a new escalation in the year-long trade dispute that began with Canada's imposition of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicle imports last August. The provisional rate will be set at 75.8 per cent, effective from Thursday, the Ministry of Commerce said in a statement. Canola Council of Canada president Chris Davison said that rate makes the Chinese market effectively closed for Canadian canola, to which Canada exported about C$5 billion ($A5.60 billion) of the oilseed crop in 2024. ICE November canola futures fell as much as 6.5 per cent to a four-month low after the announcement. "This really came as a surprise and a shock," trader Tony Tryhuk of RBC Dominion Securities said. China, the world's largest importer of canola which is also known as rapeseed, sources nearly all its supplies of the product from Canada. The steep duties would likely all but end imports if they are maintained. "This is huge. Who will pay a 75 per cent deposit to bring Canadian canola to China? It is like telling Canada that we don't need your canola, thank you very much," one Singapore-based oilseed trader said. China imposed tariffs on canola oil and meal in March. Canada is now in a trade conflict with the world's two largest economies, as it also faces tariffs on goods from the United States. Canada's number one canola market is the US, followed by China. China's Ministry of Commerce said an anti-dumping probe launched in September 2024 had found that Canada's agricultural sector - particularly the canola industry - had benefited from substantial government subsidies and preferential policies. The Canadian government and canola industry have previously rejected allegations of dumping. The industry believes China's complaint is based on other ongoing trade and political disputes, Davison said. A final ruling could result in a different rate, or overturn Tuesday's decision. The decision marks a shift from the conciliatory tone struck in June when China Premier Li Qiang said there were no deep-seated conflicts of interest between the countries during a phone call with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney. "This move ... will put additional pressure on Canada's government to sort through trade frictions with China," said Trivium China agriculture analyst Even Rogers Pay. Canada's trade, agriculture and prime minister's office did not immediately respond to request for comment. Canada has imposed tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, steel and aluminium. Separately, China also launched an anti-dumping investigation into Canadian pea starch and imposed provisional duties on imports of halogenated butyl rubber, according to ministry statements. Replacing millions of tons of Canadian canola is likely to be difficult at short notice, analysts say. China uses imported canola to make animal feed for its aquaculture sector, as well as for cooking oil. The move provides an opportunity for Australia, which looks set to regain access to the Chinese market with test cargoes this year after a years-long freeze in the trade, Pay said. Australia, the second-largest canola exporter, has been shut out of the Chinese market since 2020 due mainly to Chinese rules to stop the spread of fungal plant disease. However, even if Australian imports increase, "fully replacing Canadian canola will be very difficult unless import demand drops sharply," said Donatas Jankauskas, an analyst with commodity data firm CM Navigator. Davison said his industry believes China will need Canada's canola to meet the sort of demand it has experienced in recent years. "I think the expectation would be that they could not meet those needs with a quality of a product and the volume that we provide," Davison said. Canadian farmers are about to begin harvesting canola and will not be happy to see prices plunge, Canadian Canola Growers Association president Rick White said. As long as the prohibitive duty is there farmers face suppressed prices. "It's going to certainly have a damping effect on price for farmers and they're going to be stuck with that," White said.
News.com.au
an hour ago
- News.com.au
Zelensky says US summit in Alaska a 'personal victory' for Putin
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Tuesday that Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin had scored a "personal victory" by getting invited to talks with Donald Trump on US soil, and that the meeting further delayed sanctions on Moscow. Zelensky also ruled out withdrawing troops from Ukraine's eastern Donbas region as part of a peace deal, after Trump suggested he and Putin might negotiate a land swap to end the war. The summit, set to take place in Alaska on Friday, will be the first between a sitting US and Russian president since 2021 and comes as Trump seeks to broker an end to Russia's nearly three-and-a-half year invasion of Ukraine. Zelensky, who is not scheduled to take part, has expressed concern that Russia will put forward hardline demands and that Trump will hammer out a deal that will see Ukraine cede swathes of territory. "We will not withdraw from the Donbas... if we withdraw from the Donbas today -- our fortifications, our terrain, the heights we control -- we will clearly open a bridgehead for the Russians to prepare an offensive," Zelensky told reporters. The Donbas encompasses the eastern Ukrainian regions of Lugansk and Donetsk, both of which Russia claims as its own and has sought to control since its invasion began in 2022. Zelensky said Friday's summit would effectively postpone new US sanctions on Russia -- sanctions that Trump had promised to impose if Putin refused to halt his war. "First, he will meet on US territory, which I consider his personal victory. Second, he is coming out of isolation because he is meeting on US territory. Third, with this meeting, he has somehow postponed sanctions," Zelensky said. Zelensky also said he had received a "signal" from US envoy Steve Witkoff that Russia might agree to a ceasefire, without elaborating. "This was the first signal from them," Zelensky said. - Russia advances - On the battlefield, Zelensky warned Russia had made sharp advances near the coal mining town of Dobropillia and was planning new ground assaults on at least three different areas of the front line. "Russian units have advanced 10 kilometres (six miles) deep in several spots. They all have no equipment, only weapons in their hands. Some have already been found, some destroyed, some taken prisoner. We will find the rest and destroy them in the near future," Zelensky said. A map published by Ukrainian battlefield monitor DeepState, which has close ties with Ukraine's military, showed Russia had made a double-pronged advance around 10 kilometres (six miles) deep in a narrow section of the front line near Dobropillia. Dobropillia, home to around 30,000 people before the war, has come under regular Russian drone attacks. The advance also threatens the largely destroyed town of Kostiantynivka, one of the last large urban areas in the Donetsk region still held by Ukraine. Russian forces have been accelerating their advances for months, pressing their advantage against overstretched Ukrainian troops. The Ukrainian army said Tuesday it was engaged in "difficult" battles with Russian forces in the east, but denied Russia had a foothold near Dobropillia. "The situation is difficult and dynamic," it said in a statement. - 'New offensive' - The Institute for the Study of War, a US-based think tank, said Russia was sending small sabotage groups forwards. It said it was "premature" to call the Russian advances around Dobropillia "an operational-level breakthrough". A Ukrainian military group that oversees parts of the front in the Donetsk region also said Russia was probing Ukrainian lines with small sabotage groups, describing battles as "complex, unpleasant and dynamic". Trump has described his summit with Putin on Friday as a chance to check the Russian leader's ideas for ending the war. European leaders have meanwhile sought to ensure respect for Kyiv's interests. Russia, which invaded Ukraine in 2022, has made costly but incremental gains across the front in recent months and claims to have annexed four Ukrainian regions while still fighting to control them. Ukrainian police meanwhile said that Russian attacks in the past hours had killed three people and wounded 12 others, including a child. bur-cad/gv
Perth Now
2 hours ago
- Perth Now
China duties on Canadian canola may advantage Australia
China has announced preliminary anti-dumping duties on Canadian canola imports in a new escalation in the year-long trade dispute that began with Canada's imposition of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicle imports last August. The provisional rate will be set at 75.8 per cent, effective from Thursday, the Ministry of Commerce said in a statement. Canola Council of Canada president Chris Davison said that rate makes the Chinese market effectively closed for Canadian canola, to which Canada exported about C$5 billion ($A5.60 billion) of the oilseed crop in 2024. ICE November canola futures fell as much as 6.5 per cent to a four-month low after the announcement. "This really came as a surprise and a shock," trader Tony Tryhuk of RBC Dominion Securities said. China, the world's largest importer of canola which is also known as rapeseed, sources nearly all its supplies of the product from Canada. The steep duties would likely all but end imports if they are maintained. "This is huge. Who will pay a 75 per cent deposit to bring Canadian canola to China? It is like telling Canada that we don't need your canola, thank you very much," one Singapore-based oilseed trader said. China imposed tariffs on canola oil and meal in March. Canada is now in a trade conflict with the world's two largest economies, as it also faces tariffs on goods from the United States. Canada's number one canola market is the US, followed by China. China's Ministry of Commerce said an anti-dumping probe launched in September 2024 had found that Canada's agricultural sector - particularly the canola industry - had benefited from substantial government subsidies and preferential policies. The Canadian government and canola industry have previously rejected allegations of dumping. The industry believes China's complaint is based on other ongoing trade and political disputes, Davison said. A final ruling could result in a different rate, or overturn Tuesday's decision. The decision marks a shift from the conciliatory tone struck in June when China Premier Li Qiang said there were no deep-seated conflicts of interest between the countries during a phone call with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney. "This move ... will put additional pressure on Canada's government to sort through trade frictions with China," said Trivium China agriculture analyst Even Rogers Pay. Canada's trade, agriculture and prime minister's office did not immediately respond to request for comment. Canada has imposed tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, steel and aluminium. Separately, China also launched an anti-dumping investigation into Canadian pea starch and imposed provisional duties on imports of halogenated butyl rubber, according to ministry statements. Replacing millions of tons of Canadian canola is likely to be difficult at short notice, analysts say. China uses imported canola to make animal feed for its aquaculture sector, as well as for cooking oil. The move provides an opportunity for Australia, which looks set to regain access to the Chinese market with test cargoes this year after a years-long freeze in the trade, Pay said. Australia, the second-largest canola exporter, has been shut out of the Chinese market since 2020 due mainly to Chinese rules to stop the spread of fungal plant disease. However, even if Australian imports increase, "fully replacing Canadian canola will be very difficult unless import demand drops sharply," said Donatas Jankauskas, an analyst with commodity data firm CM Navigator. Davison said his industry believes China will need Canada's canola to meet the sort of demand it has experienced in recent years. "I think the expectation would be that they could not meet those needs with a quality of a product and the volume that we provide," Davison said. Canadian farmers are about to begin harvesting canola and will not be happy to see prices plunge, Canadian Canola Growers Association president Rick White said. As long as the prohibitive duty is there farmers face suppressed prices. "It's going to certainly have a damping effect on price for farmers and they're going to be stuck with that," White said.
