CarGurus' (NASDAQ:CARG) Soft Earnings Are Actually Better Than They Appear

Yahoo

27-02-2025

CarGurus, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:CARG) earnings announcement last week didn't impress shareholders. Despite the soft profit numbers, our analysis has optimistic about the overall quality of the income statement.
View our latest analysis for CarGurus
In high finance, the key ratio used to measure how well a company converts reported profits into free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio (from cashflow). In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.
That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".
Over the twelve months to December 2024, CarGurus recorded an accrual ratio of -0.52. That implies it has very good cash conversion, and that its earnings in the last year actually significantly understate its free cash flow. In fact, it had free cash flow of US$162m in the last year, which was a lot more than its statutory profit of US$21.0m. CarGurus shareholders are no doubt pleased that free cash flow improved over the last twelve months. Having said that, there is more to the story. The accrual ratio is reflecting the impact of unusual items on statutory profit, at least in part.
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
CarGurus' profit was reduced by unusual items worth US$144m in the last twelve months, and this helped it produce high cash conversion, as reflected by its unusual items. This is what you'd expect to see where a company has a non-cash charge reducing paper profits. It's never great to see unusual items costing the company profits, but on the upside, things might improve sooner rather than later. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. And that's hardly a surprise given these line items are considered unusual. In the twelve months to December 2024, CarGurus had a big unusual items expense. As a result, we can surmise that the unusual items made its statutory profit significantly weaker than it would otherwise be.
In conclusion, both CarGurus' accrual ratio and its unusual items suggest that its statutory earnings are probably reasonably conservative. Based on these factors, we think CarGurus' underlying earnings potential is as good as, or probably even better, than the statutory profit makes it seem! Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. At Simply Wall St, we found 2 warning signs for CarGurus and we think they deserve your attention.
After our examination into the nature of CarGurus' profit, we've come away optimistic for the company. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with high insider ownership.
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