Macron's Farage snub will come back to haunt him
Macron chose his two handpicked PMs for their supposed capacity to avoid no-confidence votes in the National Assembly – and not much else. The first, Michel Barnier, a 74-year-old moderate Gaullist of Brexit negotiations fame, duly fell when hard-Right and hard-Left briefly joined forces last December.
The second, François Bayrou, a prickly old-style provincial Centrist baron, also 74, has been slaloming ever since to avoid the same fate: he may still be hanging on by a nail, but he has achieved the dubious record of being the most unpopular PM of the Fifth Republic, with only 14 per cent of the French population having a favourable opinion of him.
French PMs are usually chosen to shield the sitting president by putting their names to unpopular policies. (Le président takes all the credit for anything that looks good). All Macron's got left, pace the De Gaulle-designed Constitution of the Fifth Republic, is what is known as the president's domaine réservé: foreign affairs and defence.
His visit to King Charles, his address to Parliament, his updating of the Lancaster House military agreements between the UK and France should all contribute to burnish his image.
Add an open coach ride with the Prince and Princess of Wales, a reception at Windsor Castle in an atmosphere of glittering bonhomie – Brigitte Macron and Queen Camilla actually do like one another, and share an easygoing sense of humour – and it seemed hard for the reset of British-French relations to fail.
And then Macron, supported by the same technocrats and diplomats that put France at the forefront of the EU's intransigence over Brexit negotiations, decided that while he would entertain the leaders of the main British political parties, he would absolutely not meet Nigel Farage. 'Reform has only 4 sitting MPs', we hacks were briefed by underlings. 'It's not representative.'
France's excellent ambassador to the Court of St. James, Hélène Tréheux-Duchêne, is no doubt aware that Reform polls higher than any other British party; you might think keeping a connection with any opposition leader is part of her job.
After all, Farage was an active MEP for years, and has occasionally evoked fond memories of his time in Strasbourg. Macron's snub of Farage is an expression of contempt for populist politicians. It's likely that the French president also means to tar Farage with the same brush as Le Pen and her deputy Jordan Bardella. Reform voters, like Le Pen's, must be ringfenced; their leaders must be kept outside any kind of political debate at the very moment when many of their arguments have become mainstream.
Macron is playing French politics here. He hopes that the non-Melenchonista Left might support whatever initiatives he will dream of in the next 18 months; he wants to present himself as a bulwark against the populist Right.
Those who will remember the slight against Farage are Right-wingers both in France and in Britain – and possibly the King, who, following his mother's footsteps, has always made a point of not alienating any of his subjects. Should Prime Minister Farage one day come to Buckingham Palace, King Charles will certainly receive his allegiance and put him down in his diary for every Wednesday.
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