Bybit x Block Scholes Quarterly Institution Report on ETH and Altcoin: Making Sense of the ETH Rally
Analysts revisited historical patterns of ETH's trajectory and BTC's time-tested dominance, comparing how the cycles moved altcoin markets. With the focal point on ETH, the report assessed the catalysts of its recent surge since May 7, 2025.
Key Insights:
The Verdict on Altcoin Season hasn't been reached despite ETH's outperformance, for the simple reason that the ETH hype had not quite reached historical level in terms of market cap dominance for the trickle down effect to happen. Sitting at just over half of its 2021 high, ETH only occupied 9% of the market. The report noted that three out of the top 10 L-1 blockchains — HYPE, SUI, and SOL — outperformed ETH by market cap at one point or another since Trump's 'Liberation Day' on April 2.
The Pectra Upgrade appeared to have provided a boost to ETH's price performance. But a closer look at options data "complicates the narrative": the rise in implied volatility for ETH options suggested macro factors were the true drivers of sentiment shifts. In fact, the ETH rally on May 8 mirrored broader circumstances upon the announcement of the US-UK trade deal, propelling equities and BTC to climb simultaneously. The observation is consistent with later developments of market recovery amid easing tariff tensions.
Access the Full Report here.
#Bybit / #TheCryptoArk /#BybitResearch
About Bybit
Bybit is the world's second-largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, serving a global community of over 70 million users. Founded in 2018, Bybit is redefining openness in the decentralized world by creating a simpler, open and equal ecosystem for everyone. With a strong focus on Web3, Bybit partners strategically with leading blockchain protocols to provide robust infrastructure and drive on-chain innovation. Renowned for its secure custody, diverse marketplaces, intuitive user experience, and advanced blockchain tools, Bybit bridges the gap between TradFi and DeFi, empowering builders, creators, and enthusiasts to unlock the full potential of Web3. Discover the future of decentralized finance at Bybit.com.
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Winnipeg Free Press
an hour ago
- Winnipeg Free Press
From Laos to Brazil, Trump's tariffs leave a lot of losers. But even the winners will pay a price
WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump's tariff onslaught this week left a lot of losers – from small, poor countries like Laos and Algeria to wealthy U.S. trading partners like Canada and Switzerland. They're now facing especially hefty taxes – tariffs – on the products they export to the United States starting Aug. 7. The closest thing to winners may be the countries that caved to Trump's demands — and avoided even more pain. But it's unclear whether anyone will be able to claim victory in the long run — even the United States, the intended beneficiary of Trump's protectionist policies. 'In many respects, everybody's a loser here,'' said Barry Appleton, co-director of the Center for International Law at the New York Law School. Barely six months after he returned to the White House, Trump has demolished the old global economic order. Gone is one built on agreed-upon rules. In its place is a system in which Trump himself sets the rules, using America's enormous economic power to punish countries that won't agree to one-sided trade deals and extracting huge concessions from the ones that do. 'The biggest winner is Trump,' said Alan Wolff, a former U.S. trade official and deputy director-general at the World Trade Organization. 'He bet that he could get other countries to the table on the basis of threats, and he succeeded – dramatically.'' Everything goes back to what Trump calls 'Liberation Day'' – April 2 – when the president announced 'reciprocal'' taxes of up to 50% on imports from countries with which the United States ran trade deficits and 10% 'baseline'' taxes on almost everyone else. He invoked a 1977 law to declare the trade deficit a national emergency that justified his sweeping import taxes. That allowed him to bypass Congress, which traditionally has had authority over taxes, including tariffs — all of which is now being challenged in court. Winners will still pay higher tariffs than before Trump took office Trump retreated temporarily after his Liberation Day announcement triggered a rout in financial markets and suspended the reciprocal tariffs for 90 days to give countries a chance to negotiate. Eventually, some of them did, caving to Trump's demands to pay what four months ago would have seemed unthinkably high tariffs for the privilege of continuing to sell into the vast American market. The United Kingdom agreed to 10% tariffs on its exports to the United States — up from 1.3% before Trump amped up his trade war with the world. The U.S. demanded concessions even though it had run a trade surplus, not a deficit, with the UK for 19 straight years. The European Union and Japan accepted U.S. tariffs of 15%. Those are much higher than the low single-digit rates they paid last year — but lower than the tariffs he was threatening (30% on the EU and 25% on Japan). Also cutting deals with Trump and agreeing to hefty tariffs were Pakistan, South Korea, Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines. Even countries that saw their tariffs lowered from April without reaching a deal are still paying much higher tariffs than before Trump took office. Angola's tariff, for instance, dropped to 15% from 32% in April, but in 2022 it was less than 1.5%. And while Trump administration cut Taiwan's tariff to 20% from 32% in April, the pain will still be felt. '20% from the beginning has not been our goal, we hope that in further negotiations we will get a more beneficial and more reasonable tax rate,' Taiwan's president Lai Ching-te told reporters in Taipei Friday. Trump also agreed to reduce the tariff on the tiny southern African kingdom of Lesotho to 15% from the 50% he'd announced in April, but the damage may already have been done there. Bashing Brazil, clobbering Canada, shellacking the Swiss Countries that didn't knuckle under — and those that found other ways to incur Trump's wrath — got hit harder. Even some of the poor were not spared. Laos' annual economic output comes to $2,100 per person and Algeria's $5,600 — versus America's $75,000. Nonetheless, Laos got rocked with a 40% tariff and Algeria with a 30% levy. Trump slammed Brazil with a 50% import tax largely because he didn't like the way it was treating former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, who is facing trial for trying to lose his electoral defeat in 2022. Never mind that the U.S. has exported more to Brazil than it's imported every year since 2007. Trump's decision to plaster a 35% tariff on longstanding U.S. ally Canada was partly designed to threaten Ottawa for saying it would recognize a Palestinian state. Trump is a staunch supporter of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Switzerland was clobbered with a 39% import tax — even higher than the 31% Trump originally announced on April 2. 'The Swiss probably wish that they had camped in Washington' to make a deal, said Wolff, now senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. 'They're clearly not at all happy.'' Fortunes may change if Trump's tariffs are upended in court. Five American businesses and 12 states are suing the president, arguing that his Liberation Day tariffs exceeded his authority under the 1977 law. In May, the U.S. Court of International Trade, a specialized court in New York, agreed and blocked the tariffs, although the government was allowed to continue collecting them while its appeal wend its way through the legal system, and may likely end up at the U.S. Supreme Court. In a hearing Thursday, the judges on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit sounded skeptical about Trump's justifications for the tariffs. 'If (the tariffs) get struck down, then maybe Brazil's a winner and not a loser,'' Appleton said. Paying more for knapsacks and video games Trump portrays his tariffs as a tax on foreign countries. But they are actually paid by import companies in the U.S. who try to pass along the cost to their customers via higher prices. True, tariffs can hurt other countries by forcing their exporters to cut prices and sacrifice profits — or risk losing market share in the United States. But economists at Goldman Sachs estimate that overseas exporters have absorbed just one-fifth of the rising costs from tariffs, while Americans and U.S. businesses have picked up the most of the tab. Walmart, Procter & Gamble, Ford, Best Buy, Adidas, Nike, Mattel and Stanley Black & Decker, have all hiked prices due to U.S. tariffs Monday Mornings The latest local business news and a lookahead to the coming week. 'This is a consumption tax, so it disproportionately affects those who have lower incomes,' Appleton said. 'Sneakers, knapsacks … your appliances are going to go up. Your TV and electronics are going to go up. Your video game devices, consoles are going to up because none of those are made in America.'' Trump's trade war has pushed the average U.S. tariff from 2.5% at the start of 2025 to 18.3% now, the highest since 1934, according to the Budget Lab at Yale University. And that will impose a $2,400 cost on the average household, the lab estimates. 'The U.S. consumer's a big loser,″ Wolff said. ____ AP Economics Writer Christopher Rugaber contributed to this story.
Vancouver Sun
6 hours ago
- Vancouver Sun
Why more fentanyl production could be moving to Canada
Although there's no evidence of any significant flows of fentanyl into the United States from Canada, an American authority on 'criminal supply chains' warned Friday that that could change abruptly if U.S. efforts to better seal its border with Mexico are successful. Jonathan Caulkins, who researches supply chains that support illegal markets for the Manhattan Institute think tank and Carnegie Mellon University. said the drug cartels that control the North American fentanyl trade may well shift large chunks of their operations to Canada if the northern border becomes the path of least resistance. Caulkins, the co-author behind a recent Manhattan Institute study of fentanyl supply chains , said the cartels are sophisticated, mobile and will adjust quickly if their cross-border routes are choked. Start your day with a roundup of B.C.-focused news and opinion. By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc. A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder. The next issue of Sunrise will soon be in your inbox. Please try again Interested in more newsletters? Browse here. 'They're not trying (now), but they sure could,' he said in an interview hours after U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order to increase tariffs on some Canadian exports (those products that aren't captured by the Canada-U.S.-Mexico free trade agreement) to the U.S. to 35 per cent from 25 per cent. Those tariffs, which kicked in earlier Friday, were necessary, according to Trump, because Canada has failed to co-operate with U.S. efforts to curb 'the ongoing flood of fentanyl and other illicit drugs.' Candace Laing, chief executive of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, said Trump's fact sheet on the tariffs should be called a 'fact-less sheet' when it comes to using fentanyl as a justification for trade decisions about Canada. 'More fact-less tariff turbulence does not advance North American economic security,' she said. In the Manhattan Institute study, Caulkins and colleague Bishu Giri found that the vast majority of the fentanyl entering the U.S. from within North America is coming from Mexico, not Canada. They used new data from 2023–24 to show that about 40 per cent of the large seizures of fentanyl in the U.S. occurred in counties along the Mexican border, while just 1.2 per cent of the fentanyl powder and 0.5 per cent of pills along the Canadian border. To effectively combat the problem, the researchers wrote, law enforcement and legislators need to begin with accurate information. Caulkins said that fentanyl producers in Mexico and Canada are different in that the Canadian operations tend to produce opioids from imports that are nearly completely assembled with just the finishing ingredients added here, while the cartels in Mexico assemble all the ingredients to make opioids in that country to export to the U.S. In both cases, he said, the imports are believed to come mostly from China, although India may also be a source. Since Trump first raised the allegation earlier this year about fentanyl 'pouring' into the U.S. from its northern neighbour, Canada has taken a number of steps to combat the flow of illegal drugs, and to be seen to be doing so, into the U.S. The steps included: reinforcing the Canada-U.S. border with additional technology, helicopters and personnel; allocating $78.7 million to expand Health Canada's regulatory capabilities; increasing co-ordination with American law enforcement counterparts; hiring a fentanyl 'czar'; and launching consultations on improving crackdowns, as well as tabling Bill C-2, the Strong Borders Act to give Ottawa more law-enforcement powers. Kevin Brosseau, the fentanyl czar, was not made available for an interview this week, but in an interim report released in June he pointed out that U.S. Customs and Border Patrol data show that only 0.1 per cent of fentanyl seizures at U.S. borders are at the Canada-U.S. border, far less than the flow of illegal narcotics into Canada from the U.S. One thing that the players in the fight against illicit drugs seem to agree on is that the problem requires a multi-faceted response that addresses the border, legislative changes, money laundering and other financial angles, and enforcement that targets both precursors and fentanyl itself. The RCMP also declined an interview this week, but stated in an email that it intends to hit organized crime 'harder and faster' and that one of its priorities is to work with industry to prevent the diversion of precursors that are used to make fentanyl. Jamie Tronnes, executive director for the Center for North American Prosperity and Security, the U.S.-based office of the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, said Canada seems to be doing a good job of cracking down on the fentanyl trade, and ensuring that those efforts are seen by Trump and others in the White House. 'I believe that Canada is doing everything it can to demonstrate it's taking it seriously,' Tronnes said. She said Canada could focus more, however, on money laundering and other international financial crimes. Darren Gibb, head of communications at the Financial Transactions and Report Analysis Centre (FINTRAC), which works with police and financial institutions to target crimes such as money laundering and terrorist financing, said hiding profits from illegal activities such as fentanyl production isn't easy. 'It's their Achilles' heel,' he said of the drug cartels. National Post stuck@ Our website is the place for the latest breaking news, exclusive scoops, longreads and provocative commentary. Please bookmark and sign up for our daily newsletter, Posted, here .
Edmonton Journal
6 hours ago
- Edmonton Journal
Why more fentanyl production could be moving to Canada
Although there's no evidence of any significant flows of fentanyl into the United States from Canada, an American authority on 'criminal supply chains' warned Friday that that could change abruptly if U.S. efforts to better seal its border with Mexico are successful. Article content Jonathan Caulkins, who researches supply chains that support illegal markets for the Manhattan Institute think tank and Carnegie Mellon University. said the drug cartels that control the North American fentanyl trade may well shift large chunks of their operations to Canada if the northern border becomes the path of least resistance. Article content Article content Caulkins, the co-author behind a recent Manhattan Institute study of fentanyl supply chains, said the cartels are sophisticated, mobile and will adjust quickly if their cross-border routes are choked. Article content Article content 'They're not trying (now), but they sure could,' he said in an interview hours after U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order to increase tariffs on some Canadian exports (those products that aren't captured by the Canada-U.S.-Mexico free trade agreement) to the U.S. to 35 per cent from 25 per cent. Those tariffs, which kicked in earlier Friday, were necessary, according to Trump, because Canada has failed to co-operate with U.S. efforts to curb 'the ongoing flood of fentanyl and other illicit drugs.' Article content Candace Laing, chief executive of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, said Trump's fact sheet on the tariffs should be called a 'fact-less sheet' when it comes to using fentanyl as a justification for trade decisions about Canada. 'More fact-less tariff turbulence does not advance North American economic security,' she said. Article content Article content In the Manhattan Institute study, Caulkins and colleague Bishu Giri found that the vast majority of the fentanyl entering the U.S. from within North America is coming from Mexico, not Canada. Article content Article content They used new data from 2023–24 to show that about 40 per cent of the large seizures of fentanyl in the U.S. occurred in counties along the Mexican border, while just 1.2 per cent of the fentanyl powder and 0.5 per cent of pills along the Canadian border. Article content To effectively combat the problem, the researchers wrote, law enforcement and legislators need to begin with accurate information. Caulkins said that fentanyl producers in Mexico and Canada are different in that the Canadian operations tend to produce opioids from imports that are nearly completely assembled with just the finishing ingredients added here, while the cartels in Mexico assemble all the ingredients to make opioids in that country to export to the U.S.
