What Happens If India Stops Buying Russian Oil? The World Could Feel The Jolt

News18

08-08-2025

A sudden stop would hit India's energy security, disrupt global refining, inflate shipping costs, and squeeze already tight fuel markets
In 2022, the Ukraine war didn't just redraw Europe's security map, it also rewired the global oil trade. One of the biggest shifts was in New Delhi. India went from buying almost no Russian oil to making Moscow its top supplier, cushioning itself from global price spikes and keeping pump prices stable at home.
That pivot helped India secure affordable energy while much of the world battled soaring inflation. But today, the same policy is under fresh strain. US President Donald Trump has doubled tariffs on Indian goods to 50 per cent, tying the move directly to Delhi's continued purchases of Russian crude. On top of that, the White House is weighing secondary sanctions, penalties on other countries and companies doing business with Russia, which could hit Indian refiners, shippers, and banks.
From Barely A Trickle To India's Biggest Oil Stream
Before the Ukraine war, Russian crude accounted for less than 2 per cent of India's imports in 2021, according to the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC). By mid-2025, that share jumped to 35-40 per cent, roughly 1.7–2 million barrels a day.
As per Reuters, in June 2025, imports from Russia hit an 11-month high of 2.08 million barrels a day, making up 44 per cent of India's total crude intake. DW reports that between 2021 and 2024, India's Russian oil purchases grew nearly 19-fold, from 0.1 to 1.9 million barrels a day, as Western sanctions on Moscow created room for new buyers.
Petras Katinas, an energy analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), told DW that these discounts saved India up to $33 billion between 2022 and 2024, calling the decision part of India's long-standing foreign policy of balancing ties with Washington, Moscow, and Beijing while prioritising 'energy security and affordability."
Why India Can't Just Swap Suppliers Overnight
Oil is not a one-size-fits-all commodity. Refineries are configured to process specific crude grades. Russian medium-sour grades, like Urals, are well-suited for India's complex refineries, especially for making diesel, the fuel that powers trucks, trains, and farm equipment.
If those supplies stopped suddenly, India would have to compete for similar barrels from the Middle East, West Africa, or the US Gulf. That would mean:
Higher costs — as competition bids up prices for those grades.
Longer voyages — tying up ships and pushing up freight rates.
Potential diesel shortages — because not all replacement grades yield diesel as efficiently.
This is why even a willing buyer can't simply 'flip a switch" on suppliers without ripple effects at home and abroad.
Why The World Would Feel It Too
India is not just a major oil importer; it's a refining powerhouse. Some of the Russian crude it buys is turned into petrol, diesel, and jet fuel for export to Asia, Africa, and even Europe. In 2023–24, India supplied around 15 per cent of Europe's imported diesel, according to industry tracking data.
If India reduced its Russian purchases, those refined fuel exports could shrink or get more expensive, tightening already-low diesel inventories in Europe and raising transport costs globally.
On the supply side, Russia would have to find other buyers for barrels now going to India. China could take more, but it already imports large volumes. Turkey and smaller Asian economies would step in only at deeper discounts, meaning Moscow might cut output, removing supply from the market.
Either way, the adjustment would disrupt the balance of who sells to whom, and at what price, the same kind of global reshuffle that in 2022 pushed Brent crude above $120 a barrel.
How Bad Could The Price Shock Be?
For global markets, a sudden halt in Russia's oil exports could set off price and trade upheavals similar to the turmoil of 2022, when sanctions prompted Moscow to reroute supplies to India and China at steep discounts. Analysts warn that if the roughly five million barrels per day Russia sends abroad were abruptly pulled from the market, prices could jump sharply as buyers scramble for alternative sources.
Even with OPEC recently raising production, industry experts say replacing such a large volume quickly would be extremely difficult due to limited spare capacity and logistical hurdles. 'There is nowhere to get those five million [barrels] fast enough to prevent a spike in oil prices," Alexander Kolyandr, senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, told the UK's Independent.
Past estimates from the US Federal Reserve suggest that every $10 increase in crude prices adds about 0.2 percentage points to inflation in the United States. In a worst-case scenario, if Brent were to leap from around $66 a barrel to the $110–$120 range, inflation could climb by about one percentage point, pushing up costs for fuel, transport, and food worldwide.
The Shipping Factor And Why It Matters Beyond Oil
Energy flows don't just change prices, they change shipping patterns. Sending Russian oil to China or Africa instead of India means longer voyages. In shipping economics, this 'ton-mile" increase ties up tankers for longer, reducing available ships for other cargoes like grain or metals.
That can push up freight costs for goods unrelated to oil, adding another layer of inflation that households in far-off countries will feel.
The US Tariff And Sanctions Twist
This energy story is tightly linked to trade tensions. Trump's latest executive order doubles tariffs on Indian goods to 50 per cent over Russian oil purchases.
According to a report by the State Bank of India (SBI), a 50 per cent tariff on Indian pharmaceutical exports could cut earnings by 5–10 per cent in FY26. The US could also face higher healthcare costs. India supplies about 35 per cent of its generic drug demand, used in 90 per cent of prescriptions.
DW reports that secondary sanctions 'raise the stakes" by threatening Indian companies' access to the US financial system, exposing refiners, banks, and shippers to potential penalties.
How India And China Are Responding
Both India and China have rejected what Beijing calls US 'coercion and pressure." India has accused the West of hypocrisy, pointing out that the EU still imports Russian energy in significant volumes — especially through exempt LNG worth $8.5 billion in 2024, pipeline gas via TurkStream (over 9.9 bcm in the first half of 2025), and fertilisers — even as overall shares have fallen since 2022.
Washington initially supported India's Russian oil purchases in 2022, arguing they helped stabilise global prices when Europe was scrambling for non-Russian supplies.
China, the world's largest buyer of Russian oil since 2022, may be less vulnerable to secondary sanctions because its trade with the US — worth over $580 billion — gives it greater bargaining power. Katinas told DW that China's control of rare earth minerals is another lever it could use to soften US measures.
What It Would Cost India And What It Would Cost The World
SBI estimates that if India stops buying Russian oil entirely, its fuel import bill could rise by USD 9.1 billion in FY26 and USD 11.7 billion in FY27. The extra costs could feed into inflation, widen the fiscal deficit, and strain the rupee.
Globally, losing India's refining output from Russian crude could deepen fuel shortages, especially in Europe's diesel market, and push up energy costs for transport, manufacturing, and agriculture. The inflation hit wouldn't be confined to oil-importing countries, even oil-exporting economies could see costs rise in sectors dependent on shipping and imported goods.
Is A Sudden Stop Likely?
Most analysts doubt India would drop Russian oil overnight, not because it wants to defy US pressure, but because the mechanics of global oil supply make a sudden exit risky and expensive. Replacing 1.7–2 million barrels a day at short notice would require not just finding new sellers, but also securing long-term contracts, rearranging shipping, and in some cases reconfiguring refinery operations.
Kpler's Sumit Ritolia told DW it might take up to a year to cut reliance if needed, adding: 'I don't see us going down to zero anytime soon." That's partly because India's strategy has been to buy the most cost-effective crude available while keeping its supplier network broad, it already sources oil from around 40 countries, but Russian barrels have been the most competitive since 2022.
A gradual reduction, trimming volumes over several quarters, would give refiners time to line up alternative term deals with Middle Eastern, West African, or US suppliers, allow OPEC+ (the alliance of OPEC members and partner producers such as Russia) to adjust production to prevent an extreme price spike, and give shipping markets space to adapt to new routes.
For the world, a phased approach would mean a gentler adjustment instead of a sudden scramble for the same grades.
The Bottom Line
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If India were to suddenly stop buying Russian oil, the effects would ricochet through the global economy: oil prices could surge, shipping lanes would be re-routed, inflation would rise from Delhi to Detroit, and fuel shortages could bite in already tight markets.
But a phased approach is far more likely, one that keeps India's energy security intact while giving the global market time to adapt. That would avoid a repeat of the 2022 chaos, when oil prices soared and trade flows scrambled, affecting consumers from Asia to Europe.
About the Author
Karishma Jain
Karishma Jain, Chief Sub Editor at News18.com, writes and edits opinion pieces on a variety of subjects, including Indian politics and policy, culture and the arts, technology and social change. Follow her @kar...Read More
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tags :
crude oil prices donald trump India-Russia relations indian economy russia oil
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New Delhi, India, India
First Published:
August 08, 2025, 16:26 IST
News explainers What Happens If India Stops Buying Russian Oil? The World Could Feel The Jolt
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