All the way with Donald J? Albanese's second term will be defined by how he handles the elephant in the room

The Guardian

29-07-2025

The 47th parliament of Australia is upon us and, amid the shiny new Labor faces, ashen opposition, bemused independents and solitary Green, there's a giant elephant in the middle of the chamber.
The second Albanese government that will lead Australia over the next three years will do so in parallel to the Trump White House. How the PM manages this mammoth task will go a long way to determining his legacy.
We know Australians have little love for Trump; the recent election was a clear vote for stability against the chaos of the reactive, populist politics he embodies. But while the people have spoken, turbulence is inevitable when coexisting with such a large and unpredictable beast.
This week's Guardian Essential Report suggests that Albanese is hitting the right notes so far; neither kowtowing nor cock-strutting, seeking sober engagement with the US while modelling a more constructive relationship with our largest trading partner, China.
Trump's tariff torpedoes have been a first test of Australian resolve and, while the beef over biosecurity was resolved while our poll was in the field, there is still strong appetite for drawing lines around pharmaceuticals, media and tech, all potential battlefields to maintain our democratic sovereignty.
But even if Albanese can manage the trade maze and maybe even pare back some of the impost on steel and aluminium, this is just the pointy end of our relationship with the elephant.
The trunk is the Aukus defence agreement forged, we should remember, by Joe Biden, Boris Johnson and 'that fella down under', before the 2022 federal election.
That deal was to allow Australia to access US-UK nuclear technology delivering long-range submarines as a part of a broader defence integration with the dominant colonial powers of the previous two centuries.
In return we pay eye-watering sums of money to retool British ship-making and provide regular (shake) downpayments to the US (we delivered another $800m last week).
In opposition, the Labor leadership made the snap decision to back in Aukus, making the totally rational short-term calculation that they did not want to allow an unpopular incumbent to run a drums of war election.
But Australians are now shackled to this agreement as it begins to unravel, with growing doubts emerging as to whether it will ever deliver a single submarine and suspicions it is more about expanding the US nuclear footprint in the region.
And it's not just the weapons. Aukus will also see the integration of the American model of surveillance technology, designed and delivered by the same overlords and hucksters who have integrated their interests into the US military-industrial complex.
The elephant in the room is about more than Trump. US power has been exercised so fully for the last 80 years that Australia's interests have become synonymous (apart from Gough Whitlam's ultimately futile crack at independence in the 1970s).
In the name of the alliance, we gratefully accepted US protection in the second world war, cheered them on through the cold war, absorbed American culture and values while turning a blind eye to the overthrow of scores of democratically elected governments from Chile to Iran.
But as defence analyst Hugh White argues in his recent Quarterly Essay, the times are a-changing; Biden had already moved to a more isolationist posture and 'in a strange, sad way Trump is doing us a favour' by saying this out loud.
'That makes it even more urgent now for Australia to work out how to make our way, for the first time in our history in an Asia no longer made safe for us by a great and powerful friend,' White writes.
Even as Trump dominates our attention, diplomatic separation is occurring in real time with Australia inching, far too slowly, towards more decisive action with other middle powers in recognising the ongoing slaughter and starvation in Gaza.
A final question in this week's report suggests voters sense this recalibration is under way, with a significant turnaround in the numbers who see our fortunes more closely tied to China.
So how do you eat an elephant? As the great South African freedom leader Bishop Desmond Tutu used to say: 'One bite at a time.'
With the US and UK already reviewing the Aukus agreement to see how much more they can squeeze out of us, convening our own review and asking own pointed questions seems to be the least we should do.
What are the benefits and costs? Are we seeking (to quote Paul Keating) security in Asia or from Asia? And is it really in our interests to become more fully integrated into the US industrial-military-tech complex?
Once we've set those parameters we can confront the more fundamental question about our US relationship: are we a member of the family, a trusted partner, a valued client or just somebody they used to know?
Maybe the answer will indeed be 'All the Way with Donald J'; but if so, let's do it with open eyes (and open wallets) and a clear understanding of the opportunities and risks inherent in taking this path.
The PM begins his second term with an overwhelming majority and capacity to do great things on energy transition, health services, economic equality and so much more. But until he addresses the elephant in the room the government will never truly be his own.
Peter Lewis is the executive director of Essential, a progressive strategic communications and research company that undertook research for Labor in the 2025 election and conducts qualitative research for Guardian Australia. He is the host of Per Capita's Burning Platforms podcast