Analyst revises Intuitive Machines stock price target after earnings
What goes up must come down, but at least you get a hell of a ride.
Shareholders of Intuitive Machines () might have felt the G-forces climbing on March 25 after the Houston space-exploration company reported fourth-quarter results.
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Intuitive's stock initially took off after the company reported a record backlog for 2024 and ended the year with a record cash balance of $207.6 million.
In addition, the shares rose following remarks by CEO Steve Altemus regarding potential growth driven by Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency.
"The federal government changes and uncertainty at NASA is an opportunity for Intuitive Machines to expand our customer base into areas like National Security Space and broaden our service footprint, in addition to lunar, further diversifying our role in the space economy," he said.
Musk's department has been laying off thousands of government employees beginning early in President Donald Trump's administration. In addition to being Tesla's () CEO, Musk is chief executive of SpaceX.
"I think the Department of Government Efficiency is looking to drive efficiency within NASA, in particular, in our case, and the monies that are recaptured or saved can be applied to commercial space endeavors that could be more efficient," Altemus said.
Intuitive Machines, he said, "is in a position now where we can navigate this kind of commercial market."
"We're driving innovation in a rapid, affordable way to deliver space systems reliably," Altemus said. "And that is attractive for this modern era or modern administration approach towards NASA. So I think this is good. This is the way the space agency can get more accomplished and be more globally competitive."
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Intuitive Machines was founded in 2013 by Altemus, Kam Ghaffarian and Tim Crain and the company went public in 2023.
NASA has outlined how it will respond to Trump's order that federal agencies eliminate 'waste, bloat, and insularity,' CNN reported. But just how sweeping the changes to the nation's space agency might be is as yet unclear.
'Over the past few weeks, an internal team has defined a strategy to identify and act on opportunities for optimizing our organization — whether by streamlining operations, reducing duplicative reporting and analysis, finding areas to accelerate decision velocity, or identifying cost-savings measures,' NASA Acting Administrator Janet Petro said in an email addressed to space agency staff.
Intuitive Machines reported revenue of $54.7 million for the quarter, missing the consensus estimate of $57.6 million. In addition, the company provided 2025 revenue guidance of $250 million to $300 million, below analyst expectations of $342.5 million.
The space-exploration company's shares nosedived earlier this month after its Athena lunar lander touched down on the moon but tipped over shortly thereafter.
Intuitive Machines shares are down nearly 50% year-to-date and up 49% from a year ago.
Investment firms issued research reports after the company posted quarterly results.B. Riley says that while Intuitive Machines' fourth-quarter revenue and Ebitda fell short of projections, the company disclosed that it had amassed $385 million of cash as of March 10, following redemption of its $11.50-per-share warrants.
This provides an "ample runway" to launch its space technology, infrastructure and services businesses, the firm said.
Intuitive now has the flexibility to both pursue organic growth while also considering bolt-on acquisitions, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
B. Riley affirmed a buy rating and $14 price target on the shares.
Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard lowered his price target on Intuitive Machines to $13 from $15 and maintained an overweight rating.
The shares tumbled 70% after the Athena mishap, but Intuitive disclosed it was able to accelerate payload operations, Sheppard said.
He called the current share level an attractive entry point after the recent selloff.
The majority of the company's revenue comes not from launch missions but rather from space contracts, the firm says.
Sheppard said he that expected Intuitive to capture more than 90% of revenue from its IM-2 Mission, and management disclosed that it expected to capture the majority of the $15.8 million final success payment outstanding.
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