Arab food insecurity: A recipe for regional chaos
In the volatile landscape of the Arab world, food and water security have emerged as critical pillars of national stability, inextricably linked to escalating regional tensions and shifting geopolitics. As conflicts simmer from Syria to Yemen and external powers exploit divisions, the region's ability to feed and hydrate its populations faces unprecedented threats.
Recent reports from the Food and Agriculture Organization, the International Fund for Agricultural Development, the World Food Programme, the World Health Organization, UNICEF and the Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia paint a grim picture: hunger and malnutrition have surged to critical levels, affecting more than 69 million people in the Arab world as of 2024. This crisis, exacerbated by climate change, pandemics and wars, underscores the urgent need for Arab nations to forge cooperative strategies for self-sufficiency, lest they remain vulnerable to global supply disruptions and manipulative foreign influences.
The Arab world's strategic environment is a powder keg of instability. Tensions in one corner barely cool before igniting elsewhere, as seen in the recent unrest in Sweida, Syria, where Israeli airstrikes ostensibly to protect the Druze minority violated Syrian sovereignty amid a perceived US green light. Saudi Arabia's Foreign Ministry swiftly condemned these incursions, highlighting a broader pattern of Israeli provocations that exploit power vacuums and regional fractures. Such interventions not only destabilize borders but also amplify food and water insecurities, disrupting agricultural supply chains and displacing farmers.
Geopolitical shifts further compound these challenges. The ongoing war in Ukraine has disrupted global grain exports, on which many Arab states heavily rely, while the Israeli assaults on Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon and Syria, along with its exchanges with Iran, have ravaged local agriculture. In Gaza, where food insecurity affected 31 percent of the population pre-2023 escalation due to blockades and water restrictions, the situation has deteriorated into famine-like conditions, with more than 90 percent of residents facing acute shortages by mid-2025.
Lebanon's recent conflicts have eroded purchasing power for 90 percent of its agricultural workforce, inflating food prices and crippling production. In Sudan, armed clashes have barred 40 percent of farmers from their lands, destroying infrastructure and spiking prices by more than 70 percent, leaving 25 million in severe hunger. Yemen's protracted war, punctuated by US-Israeli strikes, has demolished irrigation systems and hiked wheat prices by 40 percent, pushing 70 percent of its population into food insecurity, including 17 million in acute need. Libya and Syria fare no better, with conflict-induced displacements halting cultivation and inflating import dependencies.
Water security, often the overlooked twin of food security, is equally imperiled. The Arab world, home to 5 percent of the global population but only 1 percent of renewable water resources, grapples with severe scarcity. Climate change has intensified droughts, reducing aquifer levels and river flows in the Euphrates, Tigris and Nile basins, which are vital for irrigation.
Geopolitical tensions exacerbate this, including through upstream damming projects. One example is Ethiopia's Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which threatens Egypt and Sudan's water shares, potentially slashing Nile flows by 25 percent and devastating agriculture. In Palestine, Israeli control over aquifers diverts 85 percent of West Bank water to settlements, leaving Palestinians with per capita access below WHO minimums. Syria and Iraq face similar upstream pressures from Turkiye, where dams on the Euphrates have cut flows by 40 percent, crippling downstream farming. These water wars not only undermine food production, as agriculture consumes 80 percent of regional water, but also fuel national security risks. Resource disputes could ignite broader conflicts.
Amid these perils, Arab food self-sufficiency remains alarmingly low. The Arab Organization for Agricultural Development reported in 2024 that the region imports more than 50 percent of its basic needs, with grain self-sufficiency at just 38 percent, wheat at 35 percent, maize at 23 percent and rice at 48 percent (though Egypt achieves a surplus in rice). Edible oils stand at 34 percent, sugar at 41 percent, meat at 69 percent, legumes at 37 percent and dairy at 82 percent.
This dependency exposes economies to volatile global markets, where prices have soared 20 percent to 30 percent since 2022 due to supply chain disruptions. Wars amplify the gap: in conflict zones, agricultural output has plummeted 30 percent to 50 percent, widening the food deficit and inflating import bills to $100 billion annually.
National security is at stake, as food and water vulnerabilities invite external manipulation. In a geopolitically charged era, where superpowers vie for influence, resource scarcity becomes a weapon. The US-led West, often prioritizing strategic alliances over humanitarian concerns, has enabled sieges and blockades that starve populations. This is exemplified by the crisis in Gaza, where daily hunger deaths occur amid international complicity, backed by arms supplies from Washington.
Hunger and malnutrition have surged to critical levels, affecting more than 69 million people in the Arab world as of 2024.
Dr. Turki Faisal Al-Rasheed
Yet, hope lies in Arab agency. Food and water security demand political stability through regional solidarity, not fragmentation. Experts advocate clear paths: fostering intra-Arab cooperation via joint ventures, like shared irrigation projects in the Gulf Cooperation Council or Nile Basin initiatives; exchanging expertise in desalination and drought-resistant crops; developing unified food policies under the Arab League; adopting climate-smart technologies, such as precision agriculture and genetically modified seeds tailored to arid climates; and building strategic reserves for emergencies, buffered against global shocks.
Investment in research and development is crucial, boosting yields through hydroponics, vertical farming and wastewater recycling could close the water gap by 20 percent to 30 percent. The UAE's Masdar City and Saudi Arabia's NEOM exemplify the region's innovative approaches, blending renewable energy with sustainable agriculture. Reducing reliance on imports requires subsidizing local farmers, reforming subsidies that favor urban consumers and integrating water management into national security doctrines.
In conclusion, the Arab world's future hinges on transforming anxiety into action. With geopolitical tensions showing no abatement, from Iranian-Saudi reconciliation being tested by proxy conflicts to US-China rivalries spilling into the Middle East, food and water security must be elevated as existential imperatives. By uniting in self-reliance, Arab nations can shield themselves from external predation, ensuring sovereignty and dignity for generations. The opportunity is ripe; the will must follow.
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