
Oil rises over one per cent as investors weigh Trump's Russia stance, tariff threats
The Brent crude September contract, which was set to expire on Thursday, closed 73 cents, 1.01 per cent, higher at US$73.24. US West Texas Intermediate crude was up 79 cents, or 1.14 per cent, at US$70, with investors largely shrugging off mixed US data on crude and fuel inventories.
Both contracts had fallen nearly 1 per cent earlier in the day.
The more active Brent October contract settled 79 cents, or 1.1 per cent higher, at US$72.47.
On Tuesday, Trump said he would start imposing measures on Russia, such as secondary tariffs of 100 per cent on trading partners, if it did not make progress on ending the war in Ukraine within 10 to 12 days, moving up from an earlier 50-day deadline.
He imposed a 25 per cent tariff on goods imported from India starting August 1, along with an unspecified penalty for buying Russian weapons and oil. The US also warned China, the largest buyer of Russian oil, that it could face huge tariffs if it kept buying.
JP Morgan analysts wrote that while China was unlikely to comply with US sanctions, India has signaled it would do so, which could affect 2.3 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian oil exports.
"Traders seem more focused on the tariffs (related to Russia) and the compliance by India is being taken as a positive towards crude prices," Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial.
Meanwhile, US crude inventories rose by 7.7 million barrels, the Energy Information Administration said, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.3 million-barrel draw.
US gasoline stocks fell by 2.7 million barrels, exceeding expectations for a 600,000-barrel draw. Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, rose by 3.6 million barrels, higher than forecasts for a 300,000-barrel build.
US economic growth also rebounded more than expected in the second quarter, but that measurement grossly overstated the economy's health as declining imports accounted for the bulk of the improvement and domestic demand increased at its slowest pace in 2-1/2 years.
The Federal Reserve held interest rates
steady
in a split decision that gave little indication of when borrowing costs might be lowered. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell also added it was too soon to say whether the central bank will cut its interest rate target in September, as financial markets expect.
Hashtags

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles


The Star
2 hours ago
- The Star
Factbox-Who is Dmitry Medvedev, the Russian war hawk who got under Trump's skin?
FILE PHOTO: Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of Russia's Security Council and Chairman of the United Russia political party, delivers a speech during the party's congress in Moscow, Russia, December 17, 2023. Sputnik/Yekaterina Shtukina/Pool via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS - THIS IMAGE WAS PROVIDED BY A THIRD PARTY./File Photo (Reuters) -Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev has become embroiled in a tense back-and-forth on social media that prompted U.S. President Donald Trump to announce he had ordered the re-positioning of two U.S. nuclear submarines. Who is Medvedev, what is his track record and how influential is he? PRESIDENT WHO BRIEFLY RAISED HOPES IN THE WEST Medvedev was elected Russian president in 2008 when Vladimir Putin, having served two terms, was barred from standing again under the law in force at that time. Medvedev ran the Kremlin for four years, with Putin as his prime minister but widely assumed by analysts in Russia and the West to be still calling the shots, before the two swapped places after the 2012 election - a political manoeuvre that provoked opposition protests. Medvedev, the son of two university professors, had studied law and worked for a time in the private sector. Short in height and quietly spoken, he was described by contemporaries as cultured and intelligent. As president, he was seen initially in the West as a potential moderniser and reformer, prepared to work to thaw relations with the United States. In 2009 he signed the New START nuclear arms reduction treaty with President Barack Obama. But Medvedev's presidency also saw Russia fight a brief war with its neighbour Georgia in 2008, and he failed to achieve his stated goals of tackling pervasive corruption, improving the rule of law in Russia, strengthening the role of civil society and rebalancing the economy to reduce its over-reliance on oil and gas production. AFTER THE KREMLIN Medvedev served as Putin's prime minister for eight years in a period in which tensions with the West escalated anew, particularly over Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea from Ukraine. But his political fortunes took a dive when he was removed in January 2020 and replaced by Mikhail Mishustin, who has held the post ever since. Medvedev was shunted into a new role as deputy chairman of the Security Council, a powerful body that includes the heads of Russia's intelligence services. WAR CHEERLEADER After Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Medvedev carved out a new role for himself as an arch-hawk and full-throated champion of the war, hurling aggressive rhetoric at Kyiv and the West and warning repeatedly of the risk of a nuclear "apocalypse". In May 2024 he said it would be a "fatal mistake" on the part of the West to think that Russia was not ready to use tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine. He also spoke of the potential to strike unnamed hostile countries with strategic nuclear weapons. His statements - including personal attacks on foreign leaders - were frequently designed to shock, insult and provoke. He referred to Ukrainians as "cockroaches", in language Kyiv condemned as openly genocidal, and called President Volodymyr Zelenskiy a criminal, a drug addict, a louse, a rat and a freak. In January 2023, he accused Japan's prime minister of shameful subservience to the United States and suggested he should ritually disembowel himself. Russian opposition figures have dismissed Medvedev's outpourings as sad, impotent rants. However, some Western diplomats say they give a flavour of the thinking in Kremlin policy-making circles. Until now, they have rarely provoked a direct response from Western leaders. SPAT WITH TRUMP That changed last month when Trump rebuked Medvedev and accused him of throwing around the "N" word after the Russian criticised U.S. air strikes on Iran and said "a number of countries" were ready to supply Iran with nuclear warheads. When Trump imposed a deadline on Moscow to end the war in Ukraine or face further sanctions, including on buyers of its exports, Medvedev accused him of playing a "game of ultimatums" and moving a step closer to war between Russia and the U.S. Trump retorted: "Tell Medvedev, the failed former President of Russia, who thinks he's still President, to watch his words. He's entering very dangerous territory!" Medvedev waded in again last Thursday, saying Trump's "nervous reaction" showed Russia was on the right course and referring again to Moscow's nuclear capabilities. Trump delivered his statement the following day on posting U.S. nuclear submarines in "the appropriate regions", since when Medvedev has not posted again. (Reporting by Mark Trevelyan in London; editing by Mark Heinrich)


New Straits Times
3 hours ago
- New Straits Times
Trump's 'America First' may fuel global currency shift
EUROPE and Asia could leverage United States President Donald Trump's "America First" strategy for their own benefit, eventually spurring the development of regional tripolar foreign exchange (forex) blocs that could erode the dominance of the US dollar and reshape global markets. The US dollar has struggled this year, especially since Trump's April 2 tariff announcement. While the currency jumped recently following the announcement of US-European Union trade deal, this short-term move doesn't change the long-term trends that could undermine the greenback's position. Economic dominance in the future could largely depend on access to affordable, efficient energy to power artificial intelligence technologies. And in the race to dominate the industries of the future, the US is arguably going in reverse. It's retreating from the renewables space, as seen in the administration's recent move to eliminate many clean energy subsidies. The president appears to be making the bet that the US can maintain energy dominance indefinitely by relying on its own fossil fuel resources. This could ultimately result in uncompetitive power costs in the future, given that China is already dominating in clean energy technologies like solar and electric vehicles. While Trump may be seeking to enhance American self-sufficiency, the administration's policies may actually be increasing the country's dependency on foreign capital. Trump's recently passed budget bill — which looks pretty ugly to fiscal watchdogs despite its name — could cement the US' position as the world's biggest capital importer by adding an expected US$3.4 trillion to the US deficit over the next decade, according to estimates by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, potentially locking in six to seven per cent budget deficits for years. The US has also been running current account deficits of roughly four per cent over the past several years, and this widened to six per cent of gross domestic product in the first quarter, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. By spending beyond its means and running these twin deficits, the US will continue to require large amounts of foreign capital inflows. But this capital may soon be harder to come by, if Europe and Asia seek to keep more of it closer to home. While Europe has agreed to increase US energy purchases through the recently announced US trade deal, much of that agreement remains up in the air. Meanwhile, Asia has begun to trade more internally, as China has been focusing on export diversification. A growing regionalisation of supply chains began during the Covid-19 pandemic and appears to be accelerating as Trump seeks to drive production back to the US and all major global powers focus on securing regional raw material access (e.g., rare earths and other critical minerals) for national security purposes. This shift could eventually create the foundation for true regional forex blocs across Asia, Europe and the Americas. Within Asia, Pan Gongsheng, governor of the People's Bank of China, has recently highlighted China's interest in having the yuan play a larger role in a multi-polar currency world. While China's capital account remains closed, Asian currencies already primarily trade off the yuan rather than the US dollar. Even though China faces challenges, such as its fight against deflation, its efforts on this front — namely, boosting consumption and reining in excess supply, especially in the renewable energy space across solar, wind and batteries — could ultimately help attract more foreign capital by boosting China's growth profile and corporate earnings. In a world of currency blocs, Europe and Asia could emerge as potential winners, as they erode the US' position as the world's financial powerhouse. So while many investors may get lost in the short-term currency noise, it might be wise to instead focus on the long-term signal.


New Straits Times
4 hours ago
- New Straits Times
Saudi, Russia lead 547,000 bpd increase in OPEC+ oil output
LONDON: Saudi Arabia, Russia and six key members of the OPEC+ alliance said Sunday they will increase production by 547,000 barrels a day in a move which analysts say aims to regain market share amid resilient crude prices. Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman, along with the Saudis and Russians – together nicknamed the Voluntary Eight (V8) – currently produce about 41-42 million barrels a day, so the increase is about 1.5 percent. Analysts said there was unlikely to be a major impact on prices, with the Brent reference oil currently selling at about US$70 a barrel. "The eight participating countries will implement a production adjustment of 547,000 barrels per day in September 2025 from August 2025 required production level," said a statement released after a meeting where the hike was agreed. The eight key producers, who started increasing production in April, affirmed their commitment to market stability on "current healthy oil market fundamentals," an OPEC statement read. Oil prices have held up better than observers anticipated amid strong summer demand and a high geopolitical risk premium, notably owing to conflict between Iran and Israel. "OPEC+ has passed the first test – unwinding 2.2 million barrels per day (since April) without crashing prices or compromising unity," said Jorge Leon, analyst at Rystad Energy. "But the next task will be even harder: deciding if and when to unwind the remaining 1.66 million barrels, all while navigating geopolitical tension and preserving cohesion," said Leon. The post-meeting statement said the decision came "in view of a steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals, as reflected in the low oil inventories." The OPEC+ countries agreed in December to start a gradual return from last April of the 2.2 million barrels per day of previous production cuts. The latest move, a year ahead of an initial 18-month schedule, completes the unwinding and also provides for a 300,000 barrels per day tranche granted specifically to the United Arab Emirates. The statement said that "the phase-out of the additional voluntary production adjustments may be paused or reversed subject to evolving market conditions." The eight added that they will hold monthly meetings for a regular review of market conditions. For now, the return of other production cuts is to be discussed at the next OPEC+ ministerial meeting at the end of November, with all 22 members. But OPEC said the V8 will first meet on Sept 7. In a bid to boost prices, the wider OPEC+ group – comprising the 12-nation Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies – in recent years had agreed to three different tranches of output cuts, amounting to almost six million bpd in total. After a long period of producers seeking to combat price erosion by implementing production cuts to make oil scarcer, recent months have seen a shift in strategy. Prior to the announcement, UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo had suggested the quota increase was "largely priced in" on energy markets. What happens over the next few months is less certain but ING's Warren Patterson said that the "base scenario" will see the V8 pause output hikes for the time being. For Patterson, a significant surplus may well emerge from the fourth quarter of this year, which OPEC+ would have to manage carefully. "The alliance is striving to find a balance between regaining market share and avoiding a sharp drop in oil prices," so as not to wipe out its profits, said Tamas Varga of PVM Oil Associates. Market experts warn that forecasting is particularly challenging given the uncertainty emanating from US President Donald Trump's tariffs policy and its effects on global trade, as well as his 10-day deadline for Russia to end the war in Ukraine. --AFP