Shifting political landscape: ANC holds steady in Gauteng's Ward 24 after by-election

Daily Maverick

15-05-2025

The ANC had its best by-election night in 2025 and arguably its second-best since the 2024 national elections when it comfortably retained wards in Soweto and in Mpofana Municipality in KwaZulu-Natal. The party also won a ward off a local party in Nama Khoi in the Northern Cape.
Gauteng
Ward 24 (Freedom Park Motsoaledi) Johannesburg: ANC 55% (56%) MK 22% EFF 19% (18%) IFP 3% (5%) AAAIC <1%
The setting: Ward 24 is in the southern part of Soweto. It sits below Baragwanath Hospital and to the left of Kaizer Chiefs Village in Naturena. The ward includes Freedom Park, Devland, the Motswaledi informal settlement and a small part of Diepkloof. The ward has Eldorado Park on its left.
Zulu is the most widely spoken language in Freedom Park and Devland, followed by Xitsonga, IsiXhosa and Sesotho. In Motsoaledi, IsiXhosa is the most popular language, followed by IsiZulu and then Xitsonga.
Recently announced Standard Bank Young Artist 2025 award winner, Modise Sekgothe, a celebrated poet, hails from this ward.
The 2021 local government election: The ANC beat the EFF by more than 2,100 votes. It won all the voting districts in the ward. ActionSA came third with 9% of the vote, with the IFP finishing behind them with 5%.
The ANC won more than 60% of the vote in three of the eight voting districts. This included the relatively vote-rich Motsoaledi informal settlement voting district and the medium-sized Ikusasa Lethu Youth Project district in Freedom Park. The EFF did best at the Radiance of the Glorious Living God Christian Church district in Freedom Park, winning 24%.
The 2024 provincial election: The ANC won just over half of the vote in this ward in 2024, getting 51% support. The uMkhonto Wesizwe (MK) party was second with 18%, while the EFF fell to third place with a 15% haul. ActionSA pipped the DA to fourth place, with both parties obtaining 4%. The IFP struggled and ended up with 2%.
MK finished second by taking votes from the ANC, IFP, EFF and ActionSA in this ward. The ANC won all voting districts, with MK beating the EFF in all but one of the districts. The EFF beat MK in the Motsoaledi informal settlement district. The EFF finished no lower than third place in all of the districts.
The by-election: Ward councillor Zakhele Mathe died after being shot multiple times while filling up his car at a petrol station. ActionSA and the DA sat out this by-election.
Despite concerted efforts by MK and the EFF, the ANC was unshakeable in this Soweto ward. The party all but matched its 2021 percentage return and made gains compared with its 2024 result in the ward.
The ANC carried all the voting districts in the ward. Somelulwazi Primary School in Freedom Park, a mid-sized voting district, was the most competitive district. Here the ANC was pushed by both the EFF and MK as it only managed to get 36% of the vote. The ANC won more than 50% in six of the eight districts and more than 60% in two districts.
MK finished second in five of the eight voting districts, with the EFF beating MK in the other three for second place. MK did best at the Arise and Shine Hope Centre in Freedom Park where it won 35%. The EFF's 30% haul in the Somelulwazi Primary School district was its best return.
Mayor Dada Morero recently addressed the city on his turnaround strategy for the metro. From this result in Soweto he will read that the residents of Ward 24 have confidence in him and his team to steady the service delivery ship in Johannesburg. This, along with the recent strong showing by the ANC in an inner city by-election, suggests that more and more voters in Johannesburg remain committed to the ANC.
Poll: 27% (34%)
KwaZulu-Natal
Ward 4 (Rietvlei Middelrus) Mpofana, uMgungundlovu: ANC 51% (49%) IFP 25% (31%) MK 23% (19%) EFF <1% NFP <1% (1%)
The setting: Mpofana Municipality is centred on the town of Mooi River. Ward 4 is a rural ward on the road that links Mooi River and Greytown. It covers many farms and rural settlements. Most voters are in Rietvlei and Middelrus.
Musician Sun-El hails from this municipality. Mooi River is known for its dairy, horse breeding and as a key area for trucking and transport logistics in the province.
uMgungundlovu is the most vote-rich area in the province after eThekwini. Its seat of power is Pietermaritzburg. It also includes the towns of Howick, Richmond and Wartburg.
The 2024 provincial election: MK won half of the vote in this ward and six of the nine districts. The ANC was second with 26%. The ANC won a single district, the Tauricus School in Rietvlei, which is the most vote-rich district in the ward. The IFP came third in the ward with 18%. It carried two districts, including the Doornkloof School district at Middelrus, the second-most-populous district in the ward.
MK won 53% of the vote in the municipality for an impressive debut here. The ANC fell from 69% to 26% as many of its voters deserted it for MK. The DA was third with 11%, down slightly from its 12% haul in 2019. The IFP was fourth with 6%, down 2%, with some of its voters going over to MK. The EFF's percentage vote share shrank from 7% to 2%.
The 2024 by-election: A by-election was held here a few months after the 2024 election. The ANC ward councillor walked over to MK. MK might not have read the temperature in the ward as the ward councillor was not able to get the voters in the ward to back him and see out his term. The ANC retained the ward, with just under half of the vote in the by-election. The IFP surprised all and finished runner-up with more than 30%, while MK could only manage 19% after winning 50% of the vote a few months earlier.
The ANC retained the ward with just under half of the vote in the ward. It carried six of the nine districts in the ward. This was after only winning one district in May 2024. The IFP won three of the six districts, one more than in May 2024. MK, which won six of the districts in May 2024, won not a single district in the by-election.
The by-election: The new ward councillor died after a short illness. The ANC crept over the 50% mark to illustrate that the 2024 by-election in the ward was not a fluke result, but that the 2024 provincial result here, where MK won half of the vote, was more of an outlier. The ANC won eight of the nine voting districts in the ward, up from six in the 2024 by-election. While the IFP beat MK again to hold on to its second place in the ward, it was unable to win any districts this time, after taking a third of the districts in 2024. MK was able to win one, relatively sparse voting district.
The ANC won more than 60% of the vote in two districts. It did best at the Nyamvubu Community Hall (formerly the Tauricus School Voting District), winning 65%. This is also where most of the votes were cast in the by-election. The IFP lost ground in this by-election but was still able to hold off MK to finish second. It beat MK in six of the nine districts.
Mpofana forms part of the uMgungundlovu district. After eThekwini it is the second-most vote-rich part of the province. The ANC will be very satisfied with its back-to-back showings in this ward, in a key district of KwaZulu-Natal.
Poll: 64% (54%)
Northern Cape
Ward 5 (Springbok Bergsig) Nama Khoi, Namawka: ANC 37% (40%) Namakwa Civic Movement 27% (43%) PA 21% (3%) DA 14% (11%) EFF 1% (1%) Ind-April <1%
The setting: Springbok is the seat of power in Nama Khoi. Bergsig is a few kilometres north of the Springbok town centre. It sits next to the N7 national road which links Springbok with O'kiep and the village of Steinkopf. Springbok is the gateway to the Namakwa National Park and its incredible spring flowers. Other towns in the Namakwa district include Port Nolloth, Calvinia and Garies.
The 2021 local government election: A regional party, the Namakwa Civic Movement (NCM), caused an upset here and won the ward by 52 votes. The ANC won it in 2016 by close to a two-thirds majority. It was a safe seat for the party in 2016. The new party attracted many former ANC and DA voters in the 2021 election.
This was also the only municipality in the province where the opposition parties were able to form a stable coalition at the expense of the ANC. The DA (5) and the NCM (4) saw it take nine of the 17 seats in Nama Khoi. The ANC was still the largest party with seven. The Freedom Front Plus (FF+) won a single seat.
The 2024 provincial election: The ANC was the most popular party in the ward, with 35% support. The DA came second with 23%, while many former NCM voters found their way to the Northern Cape Communities Movement (NCCM). The party came third in Bergsig with 20%. The PA might have only finished fourth in the ward but won almost 20% of the vote with its 19% return. The party won voters over from the NCM and the ANC in this ward. The EFF came fifth with a single percentage point.
The by-election: The ward councillor resigned his seat and defected to the PA, but was not chosen by the party to stand in the by-election.
Northern Cape premier and ANC provincial leader Zamani Saul was very confident on election day. His confidence was rewarded as the ANC won this seat off the NCM. It is the fourth Northern Cape ward the ANC has flipped from the opposition since the 2024 elections, following wins in Groblershoop (Kheis!), Fraserburg (Karoo Hoogland) and Middelpos (Hantam).
The PA hurt the ANC in the 2024 elections but made limited inroads against the party in this by-election. The former NCM councillor took across a good chunk of NCM supporters. This propelled the PA to third place in the ward. While the NCM was still able to finish second in the ward, it lost significant ground. It remains to be seen how this affects the NCM and how it approaches the local government elections.
The DA had some growth in this ward compared with 2021, but was well short of its 2024 provincial ballot percentage. The party also finished behind the PA in the ward.
New council composition: ANC 8 (7) DA 5 NCM 3 (4) FF+ 1. Total: 17. This means the FF+ is now kingmaker in Nama Khoi. It will determine whether the DA and NCM continue to lead Nama Khoi, or whether the ANC can take over Nama Khoi.
Western Cape
Ward 9 (Town Centre) Stellenbosch, Cape Winelands: DA 95% (86%) ANC 5% (2%)
The setting: There is only one voting district in Ward 9. It is the Town Hall. This ward is in the heart of Stellenbosch and includes parts of Stellenbosch University, oak-covered Dorp Street and Victoria Street.
Stellenbosch forms part of the Cape Winelands district which includes Drakenstein (Paarl), Breede Vallei (Worcester) and Langeberg (Robertson).
The 2021 local government elections: It was one-way traffic on Victoria Street as the DA won well over 80% of the vote. The FF+ came second with 4%. The ANC finished sixth behind the African Christian Democratic Party (ACDP), GOOD and the EFF.
The DA won 28 of the 45 available seats on the council. It did lose two in the council as it fell short of the 2016 high watermark of 30 seats. The ANC came second with eight, matching its 2016 seat allocation. GOOD was third with three, the EFF came fourth with two and four other parties won a single seat each.
The 2024 provincial elections: The DA won 80% of the vote in the ward, the same as 2019. The EFF finished as runner-up here with 8%, well up from 3% in 2019. The ANC finished in fourth place on 2%, falling from 8%. Rise Mzansi was one spot ahead, also with 2%.
The DA won 64% of the vote across Stellenbosch on the provincial ballot, up from 63% in 2019. The ANC was second again in Stellenbosch but receded from 24% to 16%. The PA came third with 6%, followed by the EFF with 5%, up a single percentage point
The by-election: The ward councillor resigned. A sitting FF+ proportional representation (PR) councillor defected to the DA and was selected as the candidate for this by-election. A key campaign issue in the by-election was local opposition to a planned parking garage in the town centre of Stellenbosch. Voters were asked to spoil their ballots.
The DA won 95% of the vote when one considers all the valid votes in the by-election. However, 11% of voters spoilt their ballots. Spoilt ballots beat the ANC in the by-election, for which turnout was pitifully low. It was lower than anticipated. The new councillor and the DA-led administration of Stellenbosch will need to connect to the residents and voters in this ward because, while it won this ward by a landslide, the spoilt ballot percentage and the ultra-low turnout will cause concern for the party on the road to the next local government elections.
Poll: 7% (40%)
The next round of by-elections will be on 28 May. The ANC will defend four seats. It will defend two super marginal seats, with the PA expected to be the main threat. The seats are in the town of Clarkson in the western part of the Eastern Cape in Kou-Kamma and in the town of Sutherland in Karoo Hoogland, Northern Cape. The ANC will defend two relatively safe seats – in a Koppies township in the Ngwathe Municipality and in the small town of O'Kiep in Nama Khoi, Northern Cape. DM