5 questions for Quilty Space's Caleb Henry
Hello, and welcome to this week's installment of the Future in Five Questions. This week we're featuring Caleb Henry, director of research at Quilty Space, a financial research and consulting firm focused on the space industry. Henry is the author of a forthcoming book for Columbia University Press titled 'Web of Ambitions,' chronicling the history of an early satellite constellation called OneWeb. Henry discussed why weather satellites are a crucial, yet underappreciated part of the space ecosystem, why he thinks the Federal Communications Commission made a mistake in withdrawing funding from Starlink under former President Joe Biden, and his surprise at a massive discovery of new moons around Saturn. An edited and condensed version of the conversation follows:
What's one underrated big idea?
Large numbers of satellites, but for weather. The idea of proliferated low Earth orbit (pLEO) constellations has been embraced for satellite internet through companies like Starlink and Amazon, and for imagery via Planet Labs and Iceye. The Space Force is studying large LEO GPS networks with companies through the Resilient GPS program, and is developing a large constellation of missile warning satellites (the Proliferated Space Warfighter Architecture). Weather feels like the one area that was left behind in the constellation wave.
At Quilty Space, we track more than 400 announced constellations, ranging in size from less than 10 satellites to tens of thousands. Use cases span the gamut, but conspicuously few are for weather constellations. There are lots of reasons why weather hasn't gotten the same love. Leading weather agencies in the U.S., Europe and Asia have their own exquisite satellites and offer the data for free. Predictably, very few commercial companies have ever attempted to build a commercial weather satellite business. Also, weather sensors can be expensive, and the data processing requirements are enormous. But as a society, we depend on weather every day, and pLEO constellations assure safety in numbers for important space-based capabilities.
What's a technology that you think is overhyped?
Small launch vehicles are by far the most overhyped part of the space industry. The raison d'être for most of the 100-plus small launch vehicle initiatives that sprung up around the world in the late 2010s was anticipated demand from mega-constellations like Starlink and OneWeb. Unfortunately for those entrepreneurs, mega-constellations are most affordably launched on large rockets, which is why very little of that business went to small launch vehicle startups. Today, this class of company is dying down. Rocket Lab emerged as the leader, and there's a growing understanding that the market will only support a tiny number of such players. The remaining startups have increased the size of their rockets, or pivoted to missile defense applications.
What could the government be doing regarding technology that it isn't?
Having a technology-neutral policy for broadband, which would let satellite communications players compete more directly for subsidized deployments versus cable companies. In the past, satellite companies Hughes and Viasat had to fight hard to compete in the FCC's Connect America Fund programs, which initially proposed low latency requirements that favored cable companies. I also found it preposterous that the FCC in 2022 rescinded an $885.5 million award to Starlink from the Rural Digital Opportunity Fund. If the goal was to connect the unconnected, keeping that award in place would have done so. Perhaps Starlink could have even filled in after two terrestrial companies, Cable One and Mercury Broadband, defaulted on their RDOF obligations.
What book most shaped your conception of the future?
George Orwell's '1984' was a profound read for me. For some reason, I was never required to read it in school, so I purchased a copy in my early 20s. The book impressed upon me the value of free press and free speech. To me, the best future to live in is one with the freedom to question, to learn, and to find the truth. Orwell painted a true dystopia in '1984,' one that we as a civilization prevent by means of healthy democracies underpinned by free press and educated people.
What has surprised you the most this year?
Astronomers discovered 128 new moons around Saturn in March. Most of the new ones are small, just a few kilometers in size, but that's still a heck of a lot of celestial neighbors. It blows my mind that Saturn has a cumulative 274 moons — more than every other planet in our solar system combined. Regardless, Jupiter remains my favorite planet. It's the biggest planet in the solar system (with an impressive set of moons too — thanks, Galileo), and you can't beat those stunning clouds.
caution on gulf chips deals
Some Republicans are encouraging scrutiny of the Trump administration's artificial intelligence deals in the Gulf.
POLITICO's Anthony Adragna reported Thursday on Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.) calling for a review of the high-profile partnerships on AI that Trump announced with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, citing the possibility that powerful chips could end up in China's hands.
'We want to make sure that our commercial partners are not wittingly or unwittingly leaking technology to our chief commercial and national security competitor,' Young told Anthony. Sen. John Cornyn (R-Tex.) concurred, saying 'There's certainly an oversight role' for Congress and, 'The truth is we know that China is going to try to develop a domestic capability if they can't get access to our chips.'
Democrats are even more strident about the deals: 'We should be prioritizing American leadership in AI, making sure American technology prioritizes the buildout of this critical industry here at home, not abroad, and certainly not without any guardrails to protect our national security,' read a letter from eight Democratic senators including Minority Leader Chuck Schumer to Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
skirting sanctions
A company based in Germany sent restricted tech to Russia despite export controls.
POLITICO's Mason Boycott-Owen reported on the deal between Kontron, which has operations across the EU, Britain and America and used a Slovenian subsidiary to export over €3.5 million in sensitive telecommunications tech to its Russian arm in late 2023, despite repeated rounds of EU sanctions and trade restrictions. The exports included a product known as the SI3000 that can monitor and intercept communications.
A Kontron spokesperson said that 'After 2022, [subsidiary] Iskra Technologies, including the merged company AO RT Soft, does not have any contracts and cooperation with the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation.'
Olof Gill, a European Commission spokesperson for financial services, said: 'We cannot comment on individual cases of sanctions application … EU Member States are responsible for the implementation of EU sanctions as well as identifying breaches and imposing penalties through their national competent authorities.'
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THE FUTURE IN 5 LINKS
Stay in touch with the whole team: Mohar Chatterjee (mchatterjee@politico.com); Steve Heuser (sheuser@politico.com); Nate Robson (nrobson@politico.com); and Daniella Cheslow (dcheslow@politico.com).
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Yahoo
2 hours ago
- Yahoo
The meteor shower trio continues in our night skies
What's better than one meteor shower? Three of them sending streaks of light across the night sky at the same time! Each year, during the month of July, our planet Earth plunges into three separate streams of comet debris, each composed of ice and dust that orbits around the Sun. As we fly through these streams, the atmosphere sweeps up the tiny meteoroids directly in our path, which flash by overhead, producing a spectacular trio of overlapping meteor showers. The first of these, the alpha Capricornids, originates from a comet known as 169P/NEAT. Although the meteor shower has been observed for a very long time, its parent body was not discovered until 2005. Originally thought to be an asteroid, further observations revealed weak comet activity when it neared the Sun. We begin to see meteors from the alpha Capricornids in early July each year, radiating out from the constellation Capricornus, in the southern sky. This shower often goes unmentioned and unnoticed, though, as it produces just a handful of meteors each night from early July through mid-August. The radiant of the alpha Capricornids, on the night of the meteor shower's peak, on July 31-August 1. The First Quarter Moon will be in the western sky, setting around midnight. (Scott Sutherland/Stellarium/NASA's Goddard Scientific Visualization Studio) However, despite their rarity, alpha Capricornids tend to be fairly bright, and can even include a few fireballs — exceptionally bright meteors that are easily visible for hundreds of kilometres around on clear nights, even for observers trapped under heavily light-polluted skies. The Perseids are the second of this trio to start. Originating from a comet called 109P/Swift–Tuttle, due to the angle of the meteoroids as they enter the atmosphere, the meteors appear from the direction of the constellation Perseus, in the northern sky. The radiant of the Perseids (the point in the sky the shower appears to originate from) is located in the northeastern sky each night from mid-July through late August. The view in this simulation depicts the night of the peak, on August 12-13, 2025. The phase of the Moon (Waning Gibbous) is shown in the top right corner. (Simulation courtesy Stellarium. Moon phase from NASA's Goddard Scientific Visualization Studio) The third is the Southern delta Aquariids. Although we don't know for sure, this shower appears to come from an oddball comet called 96P/Machholz. The odd thing about this object is that it's apparently unlike any other comet in our solar system, with a unique orbit and chemical composition. It's even possible that it's an alien comet that was long ago captured by our Sun's gravity as it wandered through interstellar space. The meteors from Comet Machholz's debris stream can be traced back to the constellation Aquarius, in the southern sky. Also, due to the specific angle of the comet's path through the solar system, it produces a slightly better show in the southern hemisphere than the north. However, here in Canada, we can still see a decent number of meteors from it, if we know when to look. The radiant of the delta Aquariids is located in the southern sky each night from mid-July through early August. The view in this simulation depicts the night of the peak, on July 30, 2025, although the delta Aquariids peak between the 29th and 31st. The July 30 phase of the Moon (Waxing Crescent) is shown in the top right corner. (Simulation courtesy Stellarium. Moon phase from NASA's Goddard Scientific Visualization Studio) READ MORE: All three of these meteors showers began slowly, producing just a few meteors at their start — the alpha Capricornids in early July, and the Perseids and delta Aquariids around the middle of the month. The end of July was the best time to view the trio. Based on their typical behaviour, by the last few nights of the month, around 20 Perseid meteors per hour would have been streaking out of the northeast, crisscrossing with about 20 delta Aquariids per hour from the southeast. On the night of the 31st, the alpha Capricornids would have added up to 5 more per hour to the overlapping display. With the timing of the Moon's phases, the nights of the 29th, 30th, and 31st were the best time to go out and spot these meteors. This is because the Moon was off in the west throughout the evening and set by midnight. That left the rest of the night with a dark sky for picking out those brief flashes of light overhead. This wider simulation of the eastern sky, on the night of July 31-August 1, 2025, shows the radiants of the Perseid, delta Aquariid, and alpha Capricornid meteor showers in their respective spots. The First Quarter Moon is setting on the western horizon at this time, out of view of the observer. (Scott Sutherland/Stellarium) DON'T MISS: August Update Now that we're into August, the number of Perseid meteors will continue to rise up until the night of the 12th. At the same time, the number of delta Aquariids and alpha Capricornids will ramp down significantly. Thus, total meteor numbers will remain fairly constant over the next week or so, but will more heavily favour the Perseids out of the northeast. There's one caveat to this, though. During the first two weeks of August, the Moon will be casting off quite a bit of light as it passes through its brightest phases — Waxing Gibbous from the 2nd to the 7th, the Full Sturgeon Moon on the 8th-9th, and Waning Gibbous from the 9th to the 14th. The phases of the Moon from July 27 through August 16 reveal why sky conditions may be best for this meteor shower trio at the end of July. (Scott Sutherland/NASA's Goddard Scientific Visualization Studio) Having a dark sky is important for meteor watching, for two reasons: our eyes need to fully adapt to the dark to become sensitive enough to pick up the faintest flashes of light, and the contrast of the mostly-black background of space helps us in spotting the brief meteor streaks. Bright moonlight acts in exactly the same way as urban light pollution, especially on humid summer nights, when the added water vapour in the air easily refracts that moonlight into our eyes. The sky becomes 'washed out', with only the brighest stars remaining visible, and similarly only the brighest meteors tend to be able to pierce that 'veil' of light. Normally, as the Perseids reach their peak on the night of the 12th, observers under clear dark skies have a chance to spot up to 75-100 meteors every hour. This year, we will likely see closer to 40-50 per hour. Weather conditions could reduce that even further. Fortunately, the Perseids are well-known for producing the greatest number of fireballs! Watch below: Perseid fireball captured by NASA all-sky camera Click here to view the video After the peak of the Perseids, we can still spot meteors from the shower as it ramps down, right up until August 24. So, watch for clear skies in your forecast and keep an eye out for meteors and fireballs flashing through the night. (Editor's note: This article has gone through a significant update to include additional information regarding the alpha Capricornids meteor shower and how it will add to the show produced by the Perseids and delta Aquariids.) Thumbnail image produced using the open-source planetarium software, Stellarium. Watch below: What do we know about Interstellar Comet 3I/ATLAS? Click here to view the video Solve the daily Crossword
Forbes
10 hours ago
- Forbes
How Cognitive Manufacturing Is Rewriting The Future Of Work
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Resilience doesn't come from automation. It comes from collective human ingenuity, augmented by technology. Let's build it—together.
Fast Company
17 hours ago
- Fast Company
Light pollution is making it harder for astronomers to study the universe
Outdoor lighting for buildings, roads and advertising can help people see in the dark of night, but many astronomers are growing increasingly concerned that these lights could be blinding us to the rest of the universe. Hot science in the cold, dark night While orbiting telescopes like the Hubble Space Telescope or the James Webb Space Telescope give researchers a unique view of the cosmos—particularly because they can see light blocked by the Earth's atmosphere—ground-based telescopes also continue to drive cutting-edge discovery. Telescopes on the ground capture light with gigantic and precise focusing mirrors that can be 20 to 35 feet wide. Moving all astronomical observations to space to escape light pollution would not be possible, because space missions have a much greater cost and so many large ground-based telescopes are already in operation or under construction. Around the world, there are 17 ground-based telescopes with primary mirrors as big or bigger than Webb's 20-foot mirror, and three more under construction with mirrors planned to span 80 to 130 feet. The newest telescope starting its scientific mission right now, the Vera Rubin Observatory in Chile, has a mirror with a 28-foot diameter and a 3-gigapixel camera. One of its missions is to map the distribution of dark matter in the universe. To do that, it will collect a sample of 2.6 billion galaxies. The typical galaxy in that sample is 100 times fainter than the natural glow in the nighttime air in the Earth's atmosphere, so this Rubin Observatory program depends on near-total natural darkness. Any light scattered at night—road lighting, building illumination, billboards—would add glare and noise to the scene, greatly reducing the number of galaxies Rubin can reliably measure in the same time, or greatly increasing the total exposure time required to get the same result. The LED revolution Astronomers care specifically about artificial light in the blue-green range of the electromagnetic spectrum, as that used to be the darkest part of the night sky. A decade ago, the most common outdoor lighting was from sodium vapor discharge lamps. They produced an orange-pink glow, which meant that they put out very little blue and green light. Even observatories relatively close to growing urban areas had skies that were naturally dark in the blue and green part of the spectrum, enabling all kinds of new observations. Then came the solid-state LED lighting revolution. Those lights put out a broad rainbow of color with very high efficiency, meaning they produce lots of light per watt of electricity. The earliest versions of LEDs put out a large fraction of their energy in the blue and green, but advancing technology now gets the same efficiency with 'warmer' lights that have much less blue and green. Nevertheless, the formerly pristine darkness of the night sky now has much more light, particularly in the blue and green, from LEDs in cities and towns, lighting roads, public spaces, and advertising. The broad output of color from LEDs affects the whole spectrum, from ultraviolet through deep red. The U.S. Department of Energy commissioned a study in 2019 which predicted that the higher energy efficiency of LEDs would mean that the amount of power used for lights at night would go down, with the amount of light emitted staying roughly the same. But satellites looking down at the Earth reveal that just isn't the case. The amount of light is going steadily up, meaning that cities and businesses were willing to keep their electricity bills about the same as energy efficiency improved, and just get more light. Natural darkness in retreat As human activity spreads out over time, many of the remote areas that host observatories are becoming less remote. Light domes from large urban areas slightly brighten the dark sky at mountaintop observatories up to 200 miles away. When these urban areas are adjacent to an observatory, the addition to the skyglow is much stronger, making detection of the faintest galaxies and stars that much harder. When the Mount Wilson Observatory was constructed in the Angeles National Forest near Pasadena, California, in the early 1900s, it was a very dark site, considerably far from the 500,000 people living in Greater Los Angeles. Today, 18.6 million people live in the L.A. area, and urban sprawl has brought civilization much closer to Mount Wilson. When Kitt Peak National Observatory was first under construction in the late 1950s, it was far from metro Tucson, Arizona, with its population of 230,000. Today, that area houses 1 million people, and Kitt Peak faces much more light pollution. Even telescopes in darker, more secluded regions—like northern Chile or western Texas—experience light pollution from industrial activities like open-pit mining or oil and gas facilities. The case of the European Southern Observatory An interesting modern challenge is facing the European Southern Observatory, which operates four of the world's largest optical telescopes. Their site in northern Chile is very remote, and it is nominally covered by strict national regulations protecting the dark sky. AES Chile, an energy provider with strong U.S. investor backing, announced a plan in December 2024 for the development of a large industrial plant and transport hub close to the observatory. The plant would produce liquid hydrogen and ammonia for green energy. Even though formally compliant with the national lighting norm, the fully built operation could scatter enough artificial light into the night sky to turn the current observatory's pristine darkness into a state similar to some of the legacy observatories now near large urban areas. This light pollution could mean the facility won't have the same ability to detect and measure the faintest galaxies and stars. Light pollution doesn't only affect observatories. Today, around 80% of the world's population cannot see the Milky Way at night. Some Asian cities are so bright that the eyes of people walking outdoors cannot become visually dark-adapted. In 2009, the International Astronomical Union declared that there is a universal right to starlight. The dark night sky belongs to all people—its awe-inspiring beauty is something that you don't have to be an astronomer to appreciate. Richard Green is an astronomer emeritus at Steward Observatory at the University of Arizona. The early-rate deadline for Fast Company's Most Innovative Companies Awards is Friday, September 5, at 11:59 p.m. PT. Apply today.
