5 questions for Quilty Space's Caleb Henry
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Hello, and welcome to this week's installment of the Future in Five Questions. This week we're featuring Caleb Henry, director of research at Quilty Space, a financial research and consulting firm focused on the space industry. Henry is the author of a forthcoming book for Columbia University Press titled 'Web of Ambitions,' chronicling the history of an early satellite constellation called OneWeb. Henry discussed why weather satellites are a crucial, yet underappreciated part of the space ecosystem, why he thinks the Federal Communications Commission made a mistake in withdrawing funding from Starlink under former President Joe Biden, and his surprise at a massive discovery of new moons around Saturn. An edited and condensed version of the conversation follows:
What's one underrated big idea?
Large numbers of satellites, but for weather. The idea of proliferated low Earth orbit (pLEO) constellations has been embraced for satellite internet through companies like Starlink and Amazon, and for imagery via Planet Labs and Iceye. The Space Force is studying large LEO GPS networks with companies through the Resilient GPS program, and is developing a large constellation of missile warning satellites (the Proliferated Space Warfighter Architecture). Weather feels like the one area that was left behind in the constellation wave.
At Quilty Space, we track more than 400 announced constellations, ranging in size from less than 10 satellites to tens of thousands. Use cases span the gamut, but conspicuously few are for weather constellations. There are lots of reasons why weather hasn't gotten the same love. Leading weather agencies in the U.S., Europe and Asia have their own exquisite satellites and offer the data for free. Predictably, very few commercial companies have ever attempted to build a commercial weather satellite business. Also, weather sensors can be expensive, and the data processing requirements are enormous. But as a society, we depend on weather every day, and pLEO constellations assure safety in numbers for important space-based capabilities.
What's a technology that you think is overhyped?
Small launch vehicles are by far the most overhyped part of the space industry. The raison d'être for most of the 100-plus small launch vehicle initiatives that sprung up around the world in the late 2010s was anticipated demand from mega-constellations like Starlink and OneWeb. Unfortunately for those entrepreneurs, mega-constellations are most affordably launched on large rockets, which is why very little of that business went to small launch vehicle startups. Today, this class of company is dying down. Rocket Lab emerged as the leader, and there's a growing understanding that the market will only support a tiny number of such players. The remaining startups have increased the size of their rockets, or pivoted to missile defense applications.
What could the government be doing regarding technology that it isn't?
Having a technology-neutral policy for broadband, which would let satellite communications players compete more directly for subsidized deployments versus cable companies. In the past, satellite companies Hughes and Viasat had to fight hard to compete in the FCC's Connect America Fund programs, which initially proposed low latency requirements that favored cable companies. I also found it preposterous that the FCC in 2022 rescinded an $885.5 million award to Starlink from the Rural Digital Opportunity Fund. If the goal was to connect the unconnected, keeping that award in place would have done so. Perhaps Starlink could have even filled in after two terrestrial companies, Cable One and Mercury Broadband, defaulted on their RDOF obligations.
What book most shaped your conception of the future?
George Orwell's '1984' was a profound read for me. For some reason, I was never required to read it in school, so I purchased a copy in my early 20s. The book impressed upon me the value of free press and free speech. To me, the best future to live in is one with the freedom to question, to learn, and to find the truth. Orwell painted a true dystopia in '1984,' one that we as a civilization prevent by means of healthy democracies underpinned by free press and educated people.
What has surprised you the most this year?
Astronomers discovered 128 new moons around Saturn in March. Most of the new ones are small, just a few kilometers in size, but that's still a heck of a lot of celestial neighbors. It blows my mind that Saturn has a cumulative 274 moons — more than every other planet in our solar system combined. Regardless, Jupiter remains my favorite planet. It's the biggest planet in the solar system (with an impressive set of moons too — thanks, Galileo), and you can't beat those stunning clouds.
caution on gulf chips deals
Some Republicans are encouraging scrutiny of the Trump administration's artificial intelligence deals in the Gulf.
POLITICO's Anthony Adragna reported Thursday on Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.) calling for a review of the high-profile partnerships on AI that Trump announced with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, citing the possibility that powerful chips could end up in China's hands.
'We want to make sure that our commercial partners are not wittingly or unwittingly leaking technology to our chief commercial and national security competitor,' Young told Anthony. Sen. John Cornyn (R-Tex.) concurred, saying 'There's certainly an oversight role' for Congress and, 'The truth is we know that China is going to try to develop a domestic capability if they can't get access to our chips.'
Democrats are even more strident about the deals: 'We should be prioritizing American leadership in AI, making sure American technology prioritizes the buildout of this critical industry here at home, not abroad, and certainly not without any guardrails to protect our national security,' read a letter from eight Democratic senators including Minority Leader Chuck Schumer to Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
skirting sanctions
A company based in Germany sent restricted tech to Russia despite export controls.
POLITICO's Mason Boycott-Owen reported on the deal between Kontron, which has operations across the EU, Britain and America and used a Slovenian subsidiary to export over €3.5 million in sensitive telecommunications tech to its Russian arm in late 2023, despite repeated rounds of EU sanctions and trade restrictions. The exports included a product known as the SI3000 that can monitor and intercept communications.
A Kontron spokesperson said that 'After 2022, [subsidiary] Iskra Technologies, including the merged company AO RT Soft, does not have any contracts and cooperation with the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation.'
Olof Gill, a European Commission spokesperson for financial services, said: 'We cannot comment on individual cases of sanctions application … EU Member States are responsible for the implementation of EU sanctions as well as identifying breaches and imposing penalties through their national competent authorities.'
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THE FUTURE IN 5 LINKS
Stay in touch with the whole team: Mohar Chatterjee (mchatterjee@politico.com); Steve Heuser (sheuser@politico.com); Nate Robson (nrobson@politico.com); and Daniella Cheslow (dcheslow@politico.com).
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