2025 Emmy Predictions: Outstanding Scripted Variety Series
We will update this article throughout the season, along with all our predictions, so make sure to keep checking IndieWire for the latest news from the 2025 Emmys race. The nomination round of voting takes place from June 12 to June 23, with the official Emmy nominations announced Tuesday, July 15. Afterwards, final voting commences on August 18 and ends the night of August 27. The 77th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards are set to take place on Sunday, September 14, and air live on CBS at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.
'Last Week Tonight with John Oliver' and 'Saturday Night Live' will be this year's Outstanding Scripted Variety Series nominees. Let's just get that out of the way.
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What's frustrating is it's not that those two shows aren't deserving of recognition — it's that the Television Academy changed the voting rules to guarantee those two shows will be the only two recognized as long as this category exists.
The Outstanding Scripted Variety Series category itself was started two years ago transparently as a way to move the incredibly dominant 'Last Week Tonight with John Oliver' from contention against more traditional late-night talk shows. At that point, the category had enough submissions to use one of the standard formulas the Academy uses to determine how many nominees are in any given category.
Then, last year, the submissions for the category dropped below eight, meaning nominations would be determined by a jury of appropriate peers, with each submission needing 90% approval to be nominated. Since there was no cap on how many nominations there could be in the category with that iteration of the Emmy rules, it left scripted variety show fans excited that at least one newer entrant could break in, and compete with the long-running, highly decorated pair of annual nominees. Looking at 'A Black Lady Sketch Show,' the last series to be nominated against 'Last Week Tonight with John Oliver' and 'Saturday Night Live,' that exposure led to the HBO sketch series receiving nominations in multiple categories over the years. It even won four.
Anyways, after Emmys campaigning was already up and running, the TV Academy changed its rule for categories with under eight submissions to lower the approval rating to 70 percent of peers, then capping the number of nominees to two. No other shows stood any chance against two series that have become institutions, and that sucks if you like scripted variety series and want to see more of them on TV. Emmy nominations had kept cult series like 'Drunk History' and 'Portlandia' alive, allowing them to grow and develop a fan base. Meanwhile, CBS' Taylor Tomlinson-hosted 'After Midnight,' the other show that would have likely been nominated if the TV Academy didn't stop nominations at two, is already set to end once this season is over.
With all that said, kudos to HBO for still greenlighting shows like 'Fantasmas' and 'It's Florida, Man,' keeping alive the kind of idiosyncratic comedy that inspires people to want to be comedic performers. If there was no cap on nominees in this category, 'Fantasmas' in particular would be a shoo-in based on the acclaim it received from the Gotham Awards and Independent Spirit Awards. Hopefully, voters at least sample that show, and others, even if it's inevitable that only two shows will be nominated for this category.
Current Contenders (In Alphabetical Order):'After Midnight' (CBS)'Fantasmas' (HBO)'It's Florida, Man' (HBO)'Last Week Tonight with John Oliver' (HBO)'Saturday Night Live' (NBC)
More Category Predictions:Outstanding Animated ProgramOutstanding Talk SeriesOutstanding Documentary or Nonfiction SeriesOutstanding Documentary or Nonfiction Special
View IndieWire's full set of predictions for the 77th Emmy Awards.Last Year's Winner: 'Last Week Tonight with John Oliver'Still Eligible: Yes.Hot Streak: From its time in the Variety Talk category to here in the Scripted Variety Series category, 'Last Week Tonight with John Oliver' has won the Emmy nine years straight. Should it win this year, it would tie the record 'The Daily Show with Jon Stewart' holds for 10 consecutive Emmys received by a variety series.Notable Ineligible Series: 'Painting With John' (ended); 'The Rehearsal' (Season 2 submitted in Outstanding Comedy Series)
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