Kneel, Deal, Or Bleed: The Trump-enomics Wrecking The World

NDTV

2 days ago

This is a national crisis, one not of India's making. In the wake of US President Donald Trump's latest outburst on Monday - his threat to further hike tariffs on Indian goods over its oil trade with Russia - it is essential that all Indians rally behind the government, regardless of their political leanings. This is not the moment for partisan sniping. Just as we stood united during the India-Pakistan military standoff after the Pahalgam terror attack and during the 2020 Galwan clashes with China, we must now close ranks again.
Why call it a crisis? Because what unfolded yesterday (August 4) was pure Trump: theatrical, provocative and unfair. In a sweeping accusation, Trump charged India with profiteering from Russian oil while war rages in Ukraine, alleging that New Delhi resold Russian crude for a hefty profit. The implication was that India valued margins over morals. He threatened to slap even higher tariffs on Indian exports, higher than 25% that he imposed arbitrarily on August 1. For him, it was moral posturing. For India, it was a punch laced with hypocrisy.
India responded with rare fire. In a sharp rebuttal, it called Trump's accusations both misleading and unjustified, defending its right to safeguard national interests. Indian officials pointed to America's own ongoing imports of Russian uranium, palladium and industrial chemicals - quiet deals that don't seem to rile Washington's moral compass. It was a deft move, exposing the duplicity in Trump's rhetoric and holding up a mirror to America's own contradictions.
Let's be honest. India's oil trade with Russia is no secret arrangement hidden in some shadowy backroom. It is a transparent, market-driven strategy aimed at stabilising energy costs in a time of global volatility. When Western sanctions disrupted oil flows, India, like many other countries, stepped in to soften the blow, preventing a full-blown price shock. Indian refineries, both state-run and private, made commercial decisions based on cost, supply security and export needs. There was no geopolitical agenda, only the economics of energy security.
But in Trump's second act, facts matter less than theatre.
On A Rampage
His first presidency lit the fuse. The second is blowing up what remained. Since returning to the Oval Office in January, Trump has been on a tariff rampage. Seven months in, the global trading system is unrecognisable. Tariffs have become weapons, trade partners have been reduced to negotiators, and the World Trade Organization - already quite weakened - is now functionally comatose.
The numbers tell their own dystopian tale. The average US tariff now exceeds 18%. For some countries, it's closer to 40%. Canada, the European Union, Mexico, India, Japan - even Taiwan - have all been hit. No economy is too friendly or too small to escape the Trump treatment. As August 1's all-out tariff expansion showed - targeting over 90 nations in one stroke - this isn't policy. It's punishment.
There is no coherent strategy behind these tariffs - no roadmap, no mutually beneficial agreements. Instead, Trump offers threats and one-page handshake deals with vague promises to "Buy American" and "reinvest in US jobs". He bullies smaller nations into accepting lopsided trade conditions while larger economies are left floundering in uncertainty.
India Won't Beg Or Bow
India's case is emblematic. Despite not being among America's top-tier trade dependencies, it finds itself in Trump's crosshairs - partly for its growing alignment with Russia, and partly because it is an easy punching bag for domestic optics. Yet, unlike other US allies with vulnerable supply chains, India has leverage. Its economy is surging and its strategic importance - from Indo-Pacific security to chip manufacturing and pharmaceuticals - makes it harder to sideline. India may suffer tariff pain, but it's not begging at the table. It's negotiating with its own cards.
That might be why Trump's attack on India's Russian oil imports feels more like performance than genuine concern. The reality is far murkier. The US itself continues to import vital Russian materials, often through quiet backchannels or third-party entities. If morality were truly the yardstick, America's own trade behaviour would need a full audit.
Trump's tariffs aren't about correcting trade imbalances or defending American workers. They're about power projection. In April, when he threatened to "liberate" America from bad trade deals, it wasn't economic policy, but a flex.
Some journalists have likened Trump's global tariff crusade to a protection racket, and the metaphor holds. His "deals" work like tribute systems: agree to arbitrary terms or face economic punishment. In Trump's trade order, rules and treaties are for the weak.
The cost is already visible. The WTO is a ghost of its former self - budget slashed, dispute resolution mechanisms hollowed out. Trade diplomacy, once driven by negotiation and multilateralism, has been replaced by intimidation. Economies have stopped planning for prosperity and begun bracing for the next tariff bombshell.
Consequences Come Knocking
It's August 2025, and the world is living in Trump's new economic jungle. In April, his dramatic tariff rollout sparked a market panic. Wall Street tanked. Governments blinked. Trump, ever the showman, walked it back, slightly. A few nations got sweetheart deals: the UK secured relatively lenient 10% duties, while the EU and Japan swallowed 15%. For others - Cambodia, Pakistan, even strategic partner South Korea - there was no mercy. Tariffs surged with no clear recourse.
America's import duties have jumped from 2% in 2020 to nearly 18% today, bringing in over $100 billion in revenue. MAGA loyalists cheer, seeing a flood of money into federal coffers and a resurgence of American pride. But beneath the jingoism, the economic strain is beginning to show. Consumer prices are rising. Investment forecasts are softening. For the middle-class American, patriotic slogans don't pay the grocery bill.
In Washington, it is believed some lawmakers are already pushing back, proposing rebates for low-income households to cushion the tariff fallout - an irony given the GOP's usual disdain for government handouts. But Trump has never been beholden to ideology. His political identity is built on spectacle and exceptionalism.
The bigger concern is structural. Trade partners are adapting - quickly and strategically. India, for instance, has begun filling the manufacturing void left by China in American smartphone supply chains. With Chinese goods now heavily tariffed, India's tech sector is outperforming. But even India knows this is a temporary high. Vietnam and the Philippines - favoured by Trump's trade hawks - may ultimately enjoy smoother market access.
The message to the world is chilling. Trade with the US only if you are in favour. Otherwise, you are on your own.
New World Disorder
Germany, long dependent on auto exports, is reeling. Canada is exploring deeper integration with the EU and Asia. Latin American economies are tightening regional trade ties. And China, though wounded, is doubling down on its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) push, offering cash and credit where the US offers tariffs and threats.
The new global order Trump is creating isn't one of American dominance - it is one of fragmentation. He may be winning tactical battles, but he is losing the war for global trust. If allies continue to retreat and trade routes reroute away from Washington, Trump's tariff empire could turn out to be a pyrrhic victory - loud and dramatic, but ultimately self-defeating.
What the world needs now is collective defiance. A coalition of countries must step up in resolve and rise to build alternative frameworks. Whether through strengthening regional trade blocs, launching new digital economies, or pushing legal challenges at whatever's left of the WTO, the time for appeasement is over.