Preliminary Appropriations Committee budget unveiled, includes Pillen cuts to NU
State Sen. Rob Clements of Elmwood, left, and Keisha Patent, director of the Legislative Fiscal Office, address lawmakers at a pre-session legislative retreat in Kearney on Friday, Dec. 13, 2024. (Zach Wendling/Nebraska Examiner)
LINCOLN — The Legislature's Appropriations Committee on Tuesday unveiled a preliminary committee budget, a key early step before Nebraska lawmakers pass a two-year budget by mid-May.
Led by State Sen. Rob Clements of Elmwood, one of the committee's biggest tasks this year is closing a projected $432 million budget shortfall, which the preliminary budget takes steps toward closing.
The committee has gone through all state agencies at least once, in addition to the budget recommendations that Gov. Jim Pillen outlined in his Jan. 15 address to the Legislature, advancing some in the preliminary budget. Pillen's recommendations would close the projected $432 million budget shortfall with more than $63 million in the positive direction.
Meanwhile, the committee's preliminary budget closes approximately $171 million of the projected shortfall, leaving another $262 million to find either through increased revenue or reduced spending.
'It's going alright,' Clements said of the process. 'It's still going to be a challenge to get the budget balanced.'
State Sen. Machaela Cavanaugh of Omaha, a new face on the Appropriations Committee, said it is 'not best practice' to make substantial policy changes through the budget.
She described the in-progress 'moral document' as one that still has the potential for more 'devastating cuts,' such as to direct support or assistance to vulnerable populations, which she said she would work to protect.
Cavanaugh sees a 'manufactured crisis' from stair-stepped reductions in income and corporate tax cuts, passed in 2023, that won't be fully implemented until 2027 and continued steps from her colleagues to do 'anything and everything' for property tax relief, even when the state doesn't set property tax rates.
'I'm concerned that there's a lot of cutting off our nose to spite our face in this budget,' Cavanaugh said.
One key cut included in the preliminary committee budget: an annual $14.3 million cut from the University of Nebraska, approximately 2% of what the state spends on NU from its main checkbook.
The committee narrowly advanced that cut with opposition from the committee's three Democratic members and State Sen. Rob Dover of Norfolk, a Republican.
The NU Board of Regents in August requested a 3% increase, partly for research, expanded scholarships for top students and employee compensation.
This is on top of uncertainty with federal research dollars, potentially leaving the regents to dig out of a fiscal hole, after just doing so last summer.
The preliminary budget doesn't address whether to give $100 million in promised cash funds to NU for Project Health, a significant $2.19 billion public-private investment in expanded health care training, research and more in Omaha. Dorn and Clements said those funds would be added back. Pillen had included that funding in his budget recommendations.
The anticipated Project Health spending has 'broad support' among the committee, Dorn said, noting NU also has ongoing funding for multiple capital construction projects. He said the committee also advanced keeping $6 million in NU's share of the Nebraska Tobacco Settlement Biomedical Research Fund. Pillen recommended removing all of NU's $11 million share of that settlement research fund.
The hearing on NU's budget is in one week, where President Jeffrey Gold and other NU advocates have promised to testify about the need for continued state support for the university.
'The University strives to be a good partner with the state,' Gold said in a Jan. 17 statement. 'But cuts of this magnitude would significantly impact the university at a time that our mission of research, teaching and extension and engagement is critically important to the state.'
Cavanaugh said she plans to ask a lot of questions next week on what the cuts would mean to NU, including the University of Nebraska at Omaha in her district.
She noted the solution, if the state won't step in, is raising tuition and fees or cutting programs and jobs, hurting NU's 'workforce ecosystem.'
Clements said it is still 'too early to tell' the impact of changes in federal spending, but he noted NU already has hundreds of millions in cash reserves that are also bringing in interest.
'Everybody's going to have to contribute to fix the shortfall,' Clements said. 'I think they have resources that it's not going to severely hurt them.'
Tuesday marked the beginning of public hearings on the budget process, beginning with the budget bills introduced by Speaker John Arch of La Vista at Pillen's request — Legislative Bills 260, 261, 262, 263 and 264.
Much of the variance in the two budgets so far comes because Pillen's budget includes requests to other committees, mostly the Revenue Committee, and includes hundreds of millions of dollars in additional investments in state aid to schools, largely for property tax relief.
To meet those goals, Pillen is calling to expand the sales tax by eliminating certain sales and use tax exemptions and increasing 'sin' taxes on cigarettes, vapes, gambling cash devices, fantasy sports, spirits and consumable hemp products, estimated to net nearly $500 million over the next two years.
This includes net wrap and twine, in Legislative Bill 650 from State Sen. Brad von Gillern of the Elkhorn area, but also taxes about two dozen 'luxury' items, such as lobbying or dating services, that are included in LB 169 and LB 170, from State Sen. Tom Brandt of Plymouth.
Pillen's budget also proposes increasing fees, including those through:
The Nebraska Department of Motor Vehicles, including to obtain driver and vehicle records (LB 114, State Sen. Mike Moser of Columbus).
The Nebraska Department of Agriculture in food establishments (LB 245, State Sen. Barry DeKay of Niobrara) or the sale of certain products by weight, measure or count (LB 394, DeKay).
Fireworks display permits and sale licenses, fire alarm inspector certifications, fire safety inspections, heating oil tank registrations and underground storage tank installation permits and registrations (LB 434, State Sen. Dave 'Woody' Wordekemper of Fremont).
The governor's recommended budget also calls for an excise tax on electricity for cryptocurrency mining operations (LB 526, State Sen. Mike Jacobson of North Platte) and seeks to reduce the state's annual contribution to school retirements (LB 645, State Sen. Beau Ballard of Lincoln).
The committee hasn't yet decided whether to repeal funding for some recently enacted laws, including $500,000 for a yet-to-be-enacted prescription drug donation program and $4.5 million to implement an expanded veterans justice program.
LB 650, from von Gillern, would pull funding for multiple tax credit programs in the Revenue Committee, which he chairs.
There were also areas where the committee just hasn't yet taken up recommended cuts until the committee holds a hearing for each state agency and agency directors give more information, according to Clements and State Sen. Myron Dorn of Adams, an Appropriations Committee member.
Another major exclusion from the preliminary budget is LB 303, from State Sen. Jana Hughes of Seward, which would revamp the state's school funding formula to help stabilize year-over-year state aid to schools. That proposal, which would cost about $120 million over the two years, is in the Education Committee.
Another cog in the appropriations machine is the Nebraska Economic Forecasting Advisory Board, which meets again at the end of next week to consider the state's financial health. That Feb. 28 meeting will help guide budget-making conversations, as will a final forecasting board in August.
Von Gillern said the preliminary budget offers 'steps in the right direction' and said he's looking ahead to the forecasting board meeting. He and Clements noted revenue trends have been positive since the last forecast in October, before the presidential election.
'That'll help us work backward to a number,' von Gillern said.
Cavanaugh cautioned that the latest tax receipts were before President Donald Trump returned to office in the White House and, alongside tech-billionaire Elon Musk, began freezing and implementing cuts to federal programs. Cavanaugh noted those cuts will trickle down to Nebraska.
Dorn, in his seventh year on the Appropriations Committee, said he feels a lot more comfortable and understands the process more, though there is a little more of a challenge.
'I keep telling people it's a big puzzle,' Dorn said. 'When we get everything done and made, that puzzle will be complete. It's going to take us a while to get there.'
Under the Legislature's current schedule, the Appropriations Committee must advance its budget bills to the full Legislature by April 29 and the full budget must pass by May 15, under the Legislature's rules. Committee hearings for the committee will continue through March.
2025prelimbudget
SUBSCRIBE: GET THE MORNING HEADLINES DELIVERED TO YOUR INBOX
Hashtags

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles


Hamilton Spectator
14 minutes ago
- Hamilton Spectator
It's the economy, estúpido: New Jersey governor's race tests Democrats' efforts to win back Latinos
NEWARK, N.J. (AP) — A congresswoman and former U.S. Navy helicopter pilot secured the endorsement of the highest-ranking Hispanic official in her state. A mayor highlighted his arrest by immigration officials. A congressman campaigned at a Latino supermarket. And another mayor decided to put his self-taught Spanish to use on the trail. The New Jersey gubernatorial primary has emerged as a crucial test for Democrats seeking to regain Latino support nationally. It highlights the challenges in traditionally blue areas where the party's loss of support among Hispanics in 2024 was even more pronounced than in battleground states. President Donald Trump slashed Democratic margins in New Jersey and New York, even flipping some heavily Latino towns he had lost by 30 and 50 percentage points in 2016. The Democratic primary for governor features an experienced field of current and former officeholders: U.S. Reps. Josh Gottheimer and Mikie Sherrill , Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop , Newark Mayor Ras Baraka , New Jersey Education Association president and former Montclair Mayor Sean Spiller and former state Senate President Steve Sweeney . Although Trump made closing U.S. borders a central promise of his campaign, his economic message hit home with Latinos. More Hispanics saw inflation as the most important concern last fall than white voters, AP VoteCast showed. That lesson has been taken to heart in this year's campaign, with strategists, unions, organizers and politicians pivoting away from immigration and putting pocketbook concerns at the forefront of their appeals. 'At the end of the day, if you're worried about paying your bills and being safe at night, everything else is secondary,' Rep. Gottheimer said in an interview. 'I think that is front and center in the Latino community.' Warning signs for Democrats Laura Matos, a Democratic National Committee member from New Jersey and board member of Latina Civic Action, said the party is still finding its way with Hispanic voters, warning that support can't be taken for granted even when Democrats win most of it. While there was a big rightward swing among Hispanics in Texas and Florida in 2024, it was similarly pronounced in blue states like New Jersey and New York. Here, 43% of Latino voters supported Trump, up from 28% in 2020. In New York, 36% of Latino voters supported Trump, up from 25% in 2020, according to AP VoteCast. Understanding that all Latino voters don't think or vote alike helps. Compared to the 2020 election, Trump gained significantly with Dominican voters, where he went from 31% to 43% of support. Of the 2 million Latinos in New Jersey, more than 375,000 are Dominican, making up the second largest Hispanic group in New Jersey, after Puerto Ricans, a group where Trump also increased his support from 31% to 39%, the survey showed. But sometimes candidates overthink such targeted appeals. 'The November election results in parts of New Jersey should serve as a big warning sign that Democrats need to think about how they're communicating with some of these voters,' Matos said. Sherrill's campaign manager acknowledged in a memo to supporters last month that 'there is a real risk of a Republican winning in November.' New Jersey tilts Democratic in presidential and Senate elections, but Republicans have won the governorship in recent decades. Focusing on the economy Strategists, organizers, union leaders and some candidates agree that what they are hearing from Latinos is consistent with the concerns of other working class voters. Ana Maria Hill, of Colombian and Mexican descent, is the New Jersey state director of the Service Employees International Union Local 32BJ, where half of the members are Hispanic. Hill says raising the minimum wage and imposing new regulations to cap rent increases are popular among those she has been calling to support Newark Mayor Baraka. She says Democrats lost ground by not acknowledging real-world struggles that hit Latinos hard after inflation spiked following the pandemic. 'I think where we lost voters last year was when workers asked 'What's going on with the economy?' We said 'the economy is great.' And it could be true, but it's also true that eggs cost $10, right? It's also true that a gallon of milk costs $6.' Taking that lesson to heart, Gottheimer held a press conference at a Latino supermarket in Elizabeth, a vibrant Latino hub south of Newark, against a backdrop of bottles of a corn oil used in many Hispanic kitchens. Sherrill headed to a Colombian restaurant, also in Elizabeth, on Saturday for a 'Get Out the Vote' rally. One of her advisers, Patricia Campos-Medina, a labor activist who ran for the U.S. Senate last year, said candidates who visit Latino businesses and talk about the economic challenges the way Sherrill has done show they get it. 'She has a message that covers a lot of big issues. But when it comes to Latinos, we've been focusing on the economy, affordable housing, transportation, and small business growth,' Campos-Medina said. When state Senate Majority Leader M. Teresa Ruiz, the state's highest-ranking Hispanic official, endorsed Sherrill last week, she cited her advocacy for affordable child care directly, for instance. A candidate's arrest Trump's four months in office have been defined by his aggressive crackdown on illegal immigration. That gave Baraka a chance to seize the spotlight on a non-economic issue as an advocate for immigrant residents in Newark. He was arrested while trying to join an oversight tour of a 1,000-bed immigrant detention center. A trespass charge was later dropped, but he sued interim U.S. Attorney Alina Habba over the dropped prosecution last week. 'I think all this stuff is designed to be a distraction,' he said recently. 'But I also think that us not responding is consent. Our silence is consent. If we continue to allow these people to do these things and get away with it, right, they will continue to do them over and over and over again.' In one of his final campaign ads in Spanish, he used footage from the arrest and the demonstrations to cast himself as a reluctant warrior, with text over the images saying he is 'El Único,' Spanish for 'the only one,' who confronts Trump. Confident Republicans Former state assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli is making his third bid for governor, and Trump's backing may help. But Chris Russell, a Ciattarelli campaign consult, said Democrats' habit of misreading of Latino voters might matter more. 'Democrats believe the key to winning these folks over is identity politics.' He added: 'They're missing the boat.' Ciattarelli faces four challengers for the GOP nomination in Tuesday's primary. During a telephone rally for Ciattarelli las week, Trump called New Jersey a 'high-tax, high-crime sanctuary state,' accusing local officials of not cooperating with federal immigration authorities. But Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop, another contender for the Democratic nomination, said he is not entirely convinced the Democratic party will keep losing support in New Jersey. He thinks the gubernatorial race will be a referendum on current Gov. Phil Murphy. Immigration and the economy may enter some Hispanic voters' thinking, but how that plays out is anybody's guess. 'The Latino community is two things in New Jersey. It is growing significantly, and it is a jump ball. There's nobody that has an absolute inside track.' —- Gomez Licon reported from Fort Lauderdale, Fla. Error! Sorry, there was an error processing your request. There was a problem with the recaptcha. Please try again. You may unsubscribe at any time. By signing up, you agree to our terms of use and privacy policy . This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google privacy policy and terms of service apply. Want more of the latest from us? Sign up for more at our newsletter page .


San Francisco Chronicle
21 minutes ago
- San Francisco Chronicle
It's the economy, estúpido: New Jersey governor's race tests Democrats' efforts to win back Latinos
NEWARK, N.J. (AP) — A congresswoman and former U.S. Navy helicopter pilot secured the endorsement of the highest-ranking Hispanic official in her state. A mayor highlighted his arrest by immigration officials. A congressman campaigned at a Latino supermarket. And another mayor decided to put his self-taught Spanish to use on the trail. The New Jersey gubernatorial primary has emerged as a crucial test for Democrats seeking to regain Latino support nationally. It highlights the challenges in traditionally blue areas where the party's loss of support among Hispanics in 2024 was even more pronounced than in battleground states. President Donald Trump slashed Democratic margins in New Jersey and New York, even flipping some heavily Latino towns he had lost by 30 and 50 percentage points in 2016. The Democratic primary for governor features an experienced field of current and former officeholders: U.S. Reps. Josh Gottheimer and Mikie Sherrill, Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop, Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, New Jersey Education Association president and former Montclair Mayor Sean Spiller and former state Senate President Steve Sweeney. Although Trump made closing U.S. borders a central promise of his campaign, his economic message hit home with Latinos. More Hispanics saw inflation as the most important concern last fall than white voters, AP VoteCast showed. That lesson has been taken to heart in this year's campaign, with strategists, unions, organizers and politicians pivoting away from immigration and putting pocketbook concerns at the forefront of their appeals. 'At the end of the day, if you're worried about paying your bills and being safe at night, everything else is secondary,' Rep. Gottheimer said in an interview. 'I think that is front and center in the Latino community.' Warning signs for Democrats Laura Matos, a Democratic National Committee member from New Jersey and board member of Latina Civic Action, said the party is still finding its way with Hispanic voters, warning that support can't be taken for granted even when Democrats win most of it. While there was a big rightward swing among Hispanics in Texas and Florida in 2024, it was similarly pronounced in blue states like New Jersey and New York. Here, 43% of Latino voters supported Trump, up from 28% in 2020. In New York, 36% of Latino voters supported Trump, up from 25% in 2020, according to AP VoteCast. Understanding that all Latino voters don't think or vote alike helps. Compared to the 2020 election, Trump gained significantly with Dominican voters, where he went from 31% to 43% of support. Of the 2 million Latinos in New Jersey, more than 375,000 are Dominican, making up the second largest Hispanic group in New Jersey, after Puerto Ricans, a group where Trump also increased his support from 31% to 39%, the survey showed. But sometimes candidates overthink such targeted appeals. 'The November election results in parts of New Jersey should serve as a big warning sign that Democrats need to think about how they're communicating with some of these voters,' Matos said. Sherrill's campaign manager acknowledged in a memo to supporters last month that 'there is a real risk of a Republican winning in November." New Jersey tilts Democratic in presidential and Senate elections, but Republicans have won the governorship in recent decades. Focusing on the economy Strategists, organizers, union leaders and some candidates agree that what they are hearing from Latinos is consistent with the concerns of other working class voters. Ana Maria Hill, of Colombian and Mexican descent, is the New Jersey state director of the Service Employees International Union Local 32BJ, where half of the members are Hispanic. Hill says raising the minimum wage and imposing new regulations to cap rent increases are popular among those she has been calling to support Newark Mayor Baraka. She says Democrats lost ground by not acknowledging real-world struggles that hit Latinos hard after inflation spiked following the pandemic. 'I think where we lost voters last year was when workers asked 'What's going on with the economy?' We said 'the economy is great.' And it could be true, but it's also true that eggs cost $10, right? It's also true that a gallon of milk costs $6.' Taking that lesson to heart, Gottheimer held a press conference at a Latino supermarket in Elizabeth, a vibrant Latino hub south of Newark, against a backdrop of bottles of a corn oil used in many Hispanic kitchens. Sherrill headed to a Colombian restaurant, also in Elizabeth, on Saturday for a 'Get Out the Vote' rally. One of her advisers, Patricia Campos-Medina, a labor activist who ran for the U.S. Senate last year, said candidates who visit Latino businesses and talk about the economic challenges the way Sherrill has done show they get it. 'She has a message that covers a lot of big issues. But when it comes to Latinos, we've been focusing on the economy, affordable housing, transportation, and small business growth,' Campos-Medina said. When state Senate Majority Leader M. Teresa Ruiz, the state's highest-ranking Hispanic official, endorsed Sherrill last week, she cited her advocacy for affordable child care directly, for instance. A candidate's arrest Trump's four months in office have been defined by his aggressive crackdown on illegal immigration. That gave Baraka a chance to seize the spotlight on a non-economic issue as an advocate for immigrant residents in Newark. He was arrested while trying to join an oversight tour of a 1,000-bed immigrant detention center. A trespass charge was later dropped, but he sued interim U.S. Attorney Alina Habba over the dropped prosecution last week. 'I think all this stuff is designed to be a distraction,' he said recently. 'But I also think that us not responding is consent. Our silence is consent. If we continue to allow these people to do these things and get away with it, right, they will continue to do them over and over and over again.' In one of his final campaign ads in Spanish, he used footage from the arrest and the demonstrations to cast himself as a reluctant warrior, with text over the images saying he is 'El Único,' Spanish for 'the only one,' who confronts Trump. Confident Republicans Former state assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli is making his third bid for governor, and Trump's backing may help. But Chris Russell, a Ciattarelli campaign consult, said Democrats' habit of misreading of Latino voters might matter more. 'Democrats believe the key to winning these folks over is identity politics.' He added: 'They're missing the boat.' Ciattarelli faces four challengers for the GOP nomination in Tuesday's primary. During a telephone rally for Ciattarelli las week, Trump called New Jersey a 'high-tax, high-crime sanctuary state," accusing local officials of not cooperating with federal immigration authorities. But Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop, another contender for the Democratic nomination, said he is not entirely convinced the Democratic party will keep losing support in New Jersey. He thinks the gubernatorial race will be a referendum on current Gov. Phil Murphy. Immigration and the economy may enter some Hispanic voters' thinking, but how that plays out is anybody's guess. 'The Latino community is two things in New Jersey. It is growing significantly, and it is a jump ball. There's nobody that has an absolute inside track.' —-


Atlantic
31 minutes ago
- Atlantic
Where Is Barack Obama?
Last month, while Donald Trump was in the Middle East being gifted a $400 million luxury jet from Qatar, Barack Obama headed off on his own foreign excursion: a trip to Norway, in a much smaller and more tasteful jet, to visit the summer estate of his old friend King Harald V. Together, they would savor the genteel glories of Bygdøyveien in May. They chewed over global affairs and the freshest local salmon, which had been smoked on the premises and seasoned with herbs from the royal garden. Trump has begun his second term with a continuous spree of democracy-shaking, economy-quaking, norm-obliterating action. And Obama, true to form, has remained carefully above it all. He picks his spots, which seldom involve Trump. In March, he celebrated the anniversary of the Affordable Care Act and posted his annual NCAA basketball brackets. In April, he sent out an Easter message and mourned the death of the pope. In May, he welcomed His Holiness Pope Leo XIV ('a fellow Chicagoan') and sent prayers to Joe Biden following his prostate-cancer diagnosis. No matter how brazen Trump becomes, the most effective communicator in the Democratic Party continues to opt for minimal communication. His 'audacity of hope' presidency has given way to the fierce lethargy of semi-retirement. Obama occasionally dips into politics with brief and unmemorable statements, or sporadic fundraising emails (subject: 'Barack Obama wants to meet you. Yes you.'). He praised his law-school alma mater, Harvard, for 'rejecting an unlawful and ham-handed attempt' by the White House 'to stifle academic freedom.' He criticized a Republican bill that would threaten health care for millions. He touted a liberal judge who was running for a crucial seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court. When called upon, he can still deliver a top-notch campaign spiel, donor pitch, convention speech, or eulogy. Beyond that, Obama pops in with summer and year-end book, music, and film recommendations. He recently highlighted a few articles about AI and retweeted a promotional spot for Air Force Elite: Thunderbirds, a new Netflix documentary from his and Michelle's production company. (Michelle also has a fashion book coming out later this year: 'a celebration of confidence, identity, and authenticity,' she calls it.) Apparently, Barack is a devoted listener of The Ringer 's Bill Simmons Podcast, or so he told Jimmy Kimmel over dinner. In normal times, no one would deny Obama these diversions. He performed the world's most stressful job for eight years, served his country, made his history, and deserved to kick back and do the usual ex-president things: start a foundation, build a library, make unspeakable amounts of money. But the inevitable Trump-era counterpoint is that these are not normal times. And Obama's detachment feels jarringly incongruous with the desperation of his longtime admirers—even more so given Trump's assaults on what Obama achieved in office. It would be one thing if Obama had disappeared after leaving the White House, maybe taking up painting like George W. Bush. The problem is that Obama still very much has a public profile—one that screams comfort and nonchalance at a time when so many other Americans are terrified. 'There are many grandmas and Rachel Maddow viewers who have been more vocal in this moment than Barack Obama has,' Adam Green, a co-founder of the Progressive Change Institute, told me. 'It is heartbreaking,' he added, 'to see him sacrificing that megaphone when nobody else quite has it.' People who have worked with Obama since he left office say that he is extremely judicious about when he weighs in. 'We try to preserve his voice so that when he does speak, it has impact,' Eric Schultz, a close adviser to Obama in his post-presidency, told me. 'There is a dilution factor that we're very aware of.' 'The thing you don't want to do is, you don't want to regularize him,' former Attorney General Eric Holder, a close Obama friend and collaborator, told me. When I asked Holder what he meant by 'regularize,' he explained that there was a danger of turning Obama into just another hack commentator—' Tuesdays With Barack, or something like that,' Holder said. Like many of Obama's confidants, Holder bristles at suggestions that the former president has somehow deserted the Trump opposition. 'Should he do more? Everybody can have their opinions,' Holder said. 'The one thing that always kind of pisses me off is when people say he's not out there, or that he's not doing things, that he's just retired and we never hear from him. If you fucking look, folks, you would see that he's out there.' From the April 2016 issue: The Obama doctrine Obama's aides also say that he is loath to overshadow the next generation of Democratic leaders. They emphasize that he spends a great deal of time speaking privately with candidates and officials who seek his advice. But unfortunately for Democrats, they have not found their next fresh generational sensation since Obama was elected 17 years ago (Joe Biden obviously doesn't count). Until a new leader emerges, Obama could certainly take on a more vocal role without 'regularizing' himself in the lowlands of Trump-era politics. Obama remains the most popular Democrat alive at a time of historic unpopularity for his party. Unlike Biden, he appears not to have lost a step, or three. Unlike with Bill Clinton, his voice remains strong and his baggage minimal. Unlike both Biden and Clinton, he is relatively young and has a large constituency of Americans who still want to hear from him, including Black Americans, young voters, and other longtime Democratic blocs that gravitated toward Trump in November. 'Should Obama get out and do more? Yes, please,' Tracy Sefl, a Democratic media consultant in Chicago, told me. 'Help us,' she added. 'We're sinking over here.' Obama's conspicuous scarcity while Trump inflicts such damage isn't just a bad look. It's a dereliction of the message that he built his career on. When Obama first ran for president in 2008, his former life as a community organizer was central to his message. His campaign was not merely for him, but for civic action itself—the idea of Americans being invested in their own change. Throughout his time in the White House, he emphasized that 'citizen' was his most important title. After he left office in 2017, Obama said that he would work to inspire and develop the next cohort of leaders, which is essentially the mission of his foundation. It would seem a contradiction for him to say that he's devoting much of his post-presidency to promoting civic engagement when he himself seems so disengaged. To some degree, patience with Obama began wearing thin when he was still in office. His approval ratings sagged partway through his second term (before rebounding at the end). The rollout of the Affordable Care Act in 2013 was a fiasco, and the midterm elections of 2014 were a massacre. Obama looked powerless as Republicans in Congress ensured that he would pass no major legislation in his second term and blocked his nomination of Merrick Garland to the Supreme Court. 'Obama, out,' the president said in the denouement of his last comedy routine at the White House Correspondents' Dinner, in 2016. In Obama lore, this mic-drop moment would instantly become famous—and prophetic. After Trump's first victory, Obama tried to reassure supporters that this was merely a setback. 'I don't believe in apocalyptic—until the apocalypse comes,' he said in an interview with The New Yorker. Insofar as Obama talked about how he imagined his post-presidency, he was inclined to disengage from day-to-day politics. At a press conference in November 2016, Obama said that he planned to 'take Michelle on vacation, get some rest, spend time with my girls, and do some writing, do some thinking.' He promised to give Trump the chance to do his job 'without somebody popping off in every instance.' But in that same press conference, he also allowed that if something arose that raised 'core questions about our values and our ideals, and if I think that it's necessary or helpful for me to defend those ideals, then I'll examine it when it comes.' That happened almost immediately. A few days after vowing in his inaugural address to end the 'American carnage' that he was inheriting, Trump signed an executive order banning foreign nationals from seven predominantly Muslim countries from entering the United States for 90 days. The so-called Muslim travel ban would quickly be blocked by the courts, but not before sowing chaos at U.S. points of entry. Obama put out a brief statement through a spokesperson ('the president fundamentally disagrees with the notion of discriminating against individuals because of their faith or religion'), and went on vacation. Trump's early onslaught made clear that Obama's ex-presidency would prove far more complicated than previous ones. And Obama's taste for glamorous settings and famous company—Richard Branson, David Geffen, George Clooney—made for a grating contrast with the turmoil back home. 'Just tone it down with the kitesurfing pictures,' John Oliver, the host of HBO's Last Week Tonight, said of Obama in an interview with Seth Meyers less than a month after the president left office. 'America is on fire,' Oliver added. 'I know that people accused him of being out of touch with the American people during his presidency. I'm not sure he's ever been more out of touch than he is now.' Oliver's spasm foreshadowed a rolling annoyance that continued as Trump's presidency wore on: that Obama was squandering his power and influence. 'Oh, Obama is still tweeting good tweets. That's very nice of him,' the anti-Trump writer Drew Magary wrote in a Medium column titled 'Where the Hell Is Barack Obama?' in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. 'I'm sick of Obama staying above the fray while that fray is swallowing us whole.' Obama did insert himself in the 2024 election, reportedly taking an aggressive behind-the-scenes role last summer in trying to nudge Biden out of the race. He delivered a showstopper speech at the Democratic National Convention and campaigned several times for Kamala Harris in the fall. But among longtime Obama admirers I've spoken with, frustration with the former president has built since Trump returned to office. While campaigning for Harris last year, Obama framed the stakes of the election in terms of a looming catastrophe. 'These aren't ordinary times, and these are not ordinary elections,' he said at a campaign stop in Pittsburgh. Yet now that the impact is unfolding in the most pernicious ways, Obama seems to be resuming his ordinary chill and same old bits. Green, of the Progressive Change Institute, told me that when Obama put out his March Madness picks this year, he texted Schultz, the Obama adviser. 'Have I missed him speaking up in other places recently?' Green asked him. 'He did not respond to that.' (Schultz confirmed to me that he ignored the message but vowed to be 'more responsive to Adam Green's texts in the future.') Being a former president is inherently tricky: The role is ill-defined, and peripheral by definition. Part of the trickiness is how an ex-president can remain relevant, if he wants to. This is especially so given the current president. 'I don't know that anybody is relevant in the Trump era,' Mark Updegrove, a presidential historian and head of the LBJ Foundation, told me. Updegrove, who wrote a book called Second Acts: Presidential Lives and Legacies After the White House, said that Trump has succeeded in creating a reality in which every president who came before is suspect. 'All the standard rules of being an ex-president are no longer applicable,' he said. Still, Obama never presented himself as a 'standard rules' leader. This was the idea that his political rise was predicated on—that change required bold, against-the-grain thinking and uncomfortable action. Clearly, Obama still views himself this way, or at least still wants to be perceived this way. (A few years ago, he hosted a podcast with Bruce Springsteen called Renegades.) From the July 1973 issue: The last days of the president Stepping into the current political melee would not be an easy or comfortable role for Obama. He represents a figure of the past, which seems more and more like the ancient past as the Trump era crushes on. He is a notably long-view guy, who has spent a great deal of time composing a meticulous account of his own narrative. 'We're part of a long-running story,' Obama said in 2014. 'We just try to get our paragraph right.' Or thousands of paragraphs, in his case: The first installment of Obama's presidential memoir, A Promised Land, covered 768 pages and 29 hours of audio. No release date has been set for the second volume. But this might be one of those times for Obama to take a break from the long arc of the moral universe and tend to the immediate crisis. Several Democrats I've spoken with said they wish that Obama would stop worrying so much about the 'dilution factor.' While Democrats struggle to find their next phenom, Obama could be their interim boss. He could engage regularly, pointing out Trump's latest abuses. He did so earlier this spring, during an onstage conversation at Hamilton College. He was thoughtful, funny, and sounded genuinely aghast, even angry. He could do these public dialogues much more often, and even make them thematic. Focus on Trump's serial violations of the Constitution one week (recall that Obama once taught constitutional law), the latest instance of Trump's naked corruption the next. Blast out the most scathing lines on social media. Yes, it might trigger Trump, and create more attention than Obama evidently wants. But Trump has shown that ubiquity can be a superpower, just as Biden showed that obscurity can be ruinous. People would notice. Democrats love nothing more than to hold up Obama as their monument to Republican bad faith. Can you imagine if Obama did this? some Democrat will inevitably say whenever Trump does something tacky, cruel, or blatantly unethical (usually before breakfast). Obama could lean into this hypocrisy—tape recurring five-minute video clips highlighting Trump's latest scurrilous act and title the series 'Can You Imagine If I Did This?' Or another idea—an admittedly far-fetched one. Trump has decreed that a massive military parade be held through the streets of Washington on June 14. This will ostensibly celebrate the Army's 250th anniversary, but it also happens to fall on Trump's 79th birthday. The parade will cost an estimated $45 million, including $16 million in damage to the streets. (Can you imagine if Obama did this?) The spectacle cries out for counterprogramming. Obama could hold his own event, in Washington or somewhere nearby. It would get tons of attention and drive Trump crazy, especially if it draws a bigger crowd. Better yet, make it a parade, or 'citizen's march,' something that builds momentum as it goes, the former president and community organizer leading on foot. This would be the renegade move. Few things would fire up Democrats like a head-to-head matchup between Trump and Obama. If nothing else, it would be fun to contemplate while Democrats keep casting about for their long-delayed future. 'The party needs new rising stars, and they need the room to figure out how to meet this moment, just like Obama figured out how to meet the moment 20 years ago,' Jon Favreau, a co-host of Pod Save America and former director of speechwriting for the 44th president, told me. 'Unless, of course, Trump tries to run for a third term, in which case I'll be begging Obama to come out of retirement.'