Dangerous dependency: The EU's plans for a Russian fossil fuel detox

Yahoo

09-05-2025

For decades, Russian energy pervaded Europe: from heating flats in Slovakia to powering German industry. Voices warning that this dependency on one energy supplier could be risky were in a minority.
A first blow came with Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014, but the dangers only became clear to most Europeans with the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Since then, the European Union has struggled to wean itself off Russian fossil fuels, while facing internal obstruction from some member states.
When the full-scale invasion began, the EU sanctioned Russia and took steps to reduce coal and oil imports. Now gas has come into focus. As more liquefied natural gas (LNG) becomes available globally, the EU plans to replace gas from Russia with LNG – if possible from other sources than the Kremlin.
Earlier this week, the European Commission presented a roadmap towards a "coordinated and stepwise phase-out of Russian energy supplies" by 2027.
"It is now time for Europe to completely cut off its energy ties with an unreliable supplier," said commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
A secondary aim is to strengthen the bloc's pivot towards renewables.
"We do this to preserve our security. But it is also an important step towards becoming energy independent," EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen said.
But achieving these goals may be easier said than done.
Supply follows demand
According to the commission, Russian gas imports dropped from a 45% share in 2021 to 19% in 2024. Gas imports via pipeline have fallen sharply, but several EU countries have increased LNG purchases.
LNG is transported by sea, unloaded at ports, regasified and then injected into the European network.
There is a total ban on coal imports. Oil imports from Russia amount to 3% of the total, down from 27% in early 2022.
Yet, according to estimates by the Kpler data consultancy, Russian gas accounted for 9% of EU consumption from January to April 2025. It remains among the top three gas suppliers, alongside Norway and Algeria.
The Ember global energy think tank said imports rose year-on-year by 18% in 2024, mainly due to increased imports into the Czech Republic, Italy and France.
According to Czech analyst Jiří Tyleček, the rise in Russian gas imports underlines persistent problems in European energy security.
"Business is very pragmatic and importers do not care too much whether or not taking Russian gas is politically problematic," Tyleček said. "Unless there are legal obstacles, such as an embargo, then they focus on importing cheaper Russian gas."
The roadmap ahead
The commission now wants to end all Russian gas imports by the end of 2027, with legislative proposals due next month.
Oil and nuclear fuel are also being targeted. Russia is a major supplier of the uranium needed to produce nuclear energy. Several EU members also operate Russian-built reactors.
"We don't want to be under the control of [Russian President Vladimir] Putin," Jørgensen said after setting out the measures. "We know that he will weaponize energy if he feels that it's in his interest."
The commissioner noted that the bloc had spent more buying fossil fuels from Russia than on aid to Ukraine since 2022.
The legislation will have to be approved by EU lawmakers and member states. The commission does not need all 27 member states to approve the import bans, which require only the backing of a weighted majority of 15 countries.
Hungary and Slovakia, which entertain close ties with Moscow, have already blasted the plans.
Slovak Premier Robert Fico called the move to end all Russian energy imports "economic suicide," while recognizing the goal of reducing energy dependence.
Jørgensen said the commission was willing to go it without unanimity.
But even if resistance from Hungary or Slovakia is almost a given, headwinds may come from other quarters, as a number of member states rely on Russian energy.
Countries such as Slovakia or Hungary remain dependent on Russian fossil fuels – importing 80% of their oil from Moscow, for example. They are exempt from the ban on oil imports.
At the end of 2024 - when the transit deal between Moscow and Kiev ended - Austria was still getting about 80% of its gas from Russia. It was only at this point that the deliveries stopped.
The commission will also have to manage some member states' increased dependence on Russian LNG imports. Most of it goes to three countries - Belgium, France and Spain - according to the International Energy Agency, although some is re-exported to neighbouring countries.
Franco-German motor, powered by Russia?
The bloc's economic heavyweights France and Germany have a big stake in the shift away from Russian energy.
Before Russia's attack on Ukraine, Germany imported 55% of its gas from Russia. Since then, Berlin has been working on diversifying its energy imports and constructing LNG terminals.
Since Russia closed the Nord Stream 1 Pipeline in 2022, Germany has imported its natural gas from Norway, Belgium and the Netherlands. Germany gets LNG from other EU members, including some of those who import it from Russia.
France would face a heavy impact from any move away from Russian LNG as it has five terminals for its delivery in Europe. France increased its Russian LNG imports by 81% between 2023 and 2024, giving Russia €2.68 billion in income, according to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.
Import dilemmas
Russia was the third largest supplier of natural gas to Spain as of March, accounting for 13.2% in the first quarter of the year, behind Algeria and the United States, both at around 32%.
The government said these LNG imports stemmed from "private contracts" where it cannot intervene, but stressed that it wanted to increase imports from other sources.
Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez said in Kiev in February that both the government and Spanish society had the "political will" to find suppliers other than Russia.
The Czech Republic's struggles exemplify the energy dilemma. While the country has been independent of Russian oil for the first time since April due to the completion of a new pipeline, it still imports Russian gas, albeit indirectly.
In 2023, Prague declared total independence from Russian natural gas, cutting its imports to almost zero. However, grid data shows that it is importing at least some Russian fuel via Slovakia.
The flows highlight the challenge some nations face in curbing their reliance on Russian fuel, even as they oppose the Kremlin's war on Ukraine.
One member state that weaned itself off Russian gas is Croatia. It completed the construction of a floating LNG terminal on the island of Krk in January 2021 - even before the war in Ukraine.
This move diversified its gas supply and ended the dependence on Russian imports. Today, Croatia imports liquefied gas mostly from the US, followed by Nigeria, Qatar and Egypt. The terminal not only meets Croatia's gas needs, but can also supply its neighbours.
With plans to expand the hub and upgrade gas pipelines, Croatia wants to turn itself into a regional energy hub.
Trading favours
Opening the door for more LNG supplies from the US could also help Brussels ease trade tensions with US President Donald Trump.
The US is already the EU's largest supplier of LNG, accounting for 45% in 2024, followed by Russia's 20%. In April, Trump advanced the figure of $350 billion in additional energy purchases by the EU.
The commission said it aims to rely on suppliers ranging from the US, to Norway, Qatar or North African nations. At the same time, it needs to keep an eye on consumers.
Rising energy prices remain a politically sensitive topic and the commission will have to navigate the spectre of another gas price surge like in 2022, when the EU began imposing hefty sactions on Moscow, if it wants to break free of Russian energy.
The content of this article is based on reporting by AFP, ANSA, BTA, CTK, dpa, EFE, Europa Press, HINA, MIA and TASR as part of the European Newsroom (enr) project.