US imports to surge amid temporary China tariff relief: ITS Logistics
Confirming earlier projections of a steep decline in imports following tariff increases on Chinese goods, ITS Logistics has released the May forecast for its US Port/Rail Ramp Freight Index. The index also highlights growing operational stress at rail ramps in key regions, as shippers redirect front-loaded inventory through interior point intermodal (IPI) routes. Compounding these challenges, cargo theft at rail interchange points is emerging as a serious concern for shippers and logistics providers heading into 2025.
Recently, trade officials announced that the US and China agreed to a temporary tariff reduction, with the US lowering tariffs from 145 per cent to 30 per cent and China lowering its tariffs on US goods to 10 per cent from 125 per cent. With the new rates officially in place for the next 90 days, shippers are eager to restart imports, replenish inventories, and prepare for upcoming holiday seasons. The sudden surge in demand and uncertainty surrounding long-term availability of Chinese imports has the potential to spur another frontloading event that drives an early start to peak season for businesses in key industries like retail, the company said in a press release.
'I have clients with thousands of containers pre-loaded in China that is ready to come in,' said Paul Brashier, vice president of global supply chain at ITS Logistics . Over the next four to six weeks, Brashier said he expects a surge of containers, calling the 90-day pause 'the pivotal moment for supply chain planning out of China.'
ITS Logistics' May forecast confirms a sharp import decline due to China tariffs, but a temporary 90-day reduction is expected to trigger a surge in shipments and an early peak season. Shippers face growing rail congestion, equipment shortages, and rising cargo theft. The index tracks port and rail activity across key US regions, offering insights into supply chain disruptions and capacity trends.
'Shippers should be prepared to increase trucking and equipment capacity immediately to ensure they can withstand volatility and get their goods to market on time,' Brashier continued.
Adding to emerging market challenges, industry experts are reporting a surge in cargo theft. Criminal networks in the US and internationally are exploiting weaknesses in current supply chain systems, as well as technology intended to improve overall efficiency, to steal freight.
'Using IPI offers more storage elasticity and allows shippers to avoid 3PL storage fees on front-loaded inventories,' Brashier explained. 'However, chassis availability and congested ramp operations are becoming more frequent, and theft at interchanges between rail providers is a serious ongoing concern.'
Amid industry professionals seeking ways to best navigate the current supply chain disruptions, ITS advised companies to prepare for an early kick-off to peak season that lasts through Q3. Additionally, as the supply chain industry enters Q4, tax policy, deregulation, and federal reserve policy could spur economic growth that drives higher year-over-year volumes.
ITS Logistics offers a full suite of network transportation solutions across North America and distribution and fulfilment services to 95 per cent of the US population within two days. These services include drayage and intermodal in 22 coastal ports and 30 rail ramps, a full suite of asset and asset-lite transportation solutions, omni-channel distribution and fulfilment, LTL, and outbound small parcel.
The ITS Logistics US Port/Rail Ramp Freight Index forecasts port container and dray operations for the Pacific, Atlantic, and Gulf regions. Ocean and domestic container rail ramp operations are also highlighted in the index for both the West Inland and East Inland regions.
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