Latest news with #PaulBrashier
Fibre2Fashion
22-05-2025
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
US imports to surge amid temporary China tariff relief: ITS Logistics
Confirming earlier projections of a steep decline in imports following tariff increases on Chinese goods, ITS Logistics has released the May forecast for its US Port/Rail Ramp Freight Index. The index also highlights growing operational stress at rail ramps in key regions, as shippers redirect front-loaded inventory through interior point intermodal (IPI) routes. Compounding these challenges, cargo theft at rail interchange points is emerging as a serious concern for shippers and logistics providers heading into 2025. Recently, trade officials announced that the US and China agreed to a temporary tariff reduction, with the US lowering tariffs from 145 per cent to 30 per cent and China lowering its tariffs on US goods to 10 per cent from 125 per cent. With the new rates officially in place for the next 90 days, shippers are eager to restart imports, replenish inventories, and prepare for upcoming holiday seasons. The sudden surge in demand and uncertainty surrounding long-term availability of Chinese imports has the potential to spur another frontloading event that drives an early start to peak season for businesses in key industries like retail, the company said in a press release. 'I have clients with thousands of containers pre-loaded in China that is ready to come in,' said Paul Brashier, vice president of global supply chain at ITS Logistics . Over the next four to six weeks, Brashier said he expects a surge of containers, calling the 90-day pause 'the pivotal moment for supply chain planning out of China.' ITS Logistics' May forecast confirms a sharp import decline due to China tariffs, but a temporary 90-day reduction is expected to trigger a surge in shipments and an early peak season. Shippers face growing rail congestion, equipment shortages, and rising cargo theft. The index tracks port and rail activity across key US regions, offering insights into supply chain disruptions and capacity trends. 'Shippers should be prepared to increase trucking and equipment capacity immediately to ensure they can withstand volatility and get their goods to market on time,' Brashier continued. Adding to emerging market challenges, industry experts are reporting a surge in cargo theft. Criminal networks in the US and internationally are exploiting weaknesses in current supply chain systems, as well as technology intended to improve overall efficiency, to steal freight. 'Using IPI offers more storage elasticity and allows shippers to avoid 3PL storage fees on front-loaded inventories,' Brashier explained. 'However, chassis availability and congested ramp operations are becoming more frequent, and theft at interchanges between rail providers is a serious ongoing concern.' Amid industry professionals seeking ways to best navigate the current supply chain disruptions, ITS advised companies to prepare for an early kick-off to peak season that lasts through Q3. Additionally, as the supply chain industry enters Q4, tax policy, deregulation, and federal reserve policy could spur economic growth that drives higher year-over-year volumes. ITS Logistics offers a full suite of network transportation solutions across North America and distribution and fulfilment services to 95 per cent of the US population within two days. These services include drayage and intermodal in 22 coastal ports and 30 rail ramps, a full suite of asset and asset-lite transportation solutions, omni-channel distribution and fulfilment, LTL, and outbound small parcel. The ITS Logistics US Port/Rail Ramp Freight Index forecasts port container and dray operations for the Pacific, Atlantic, and Gulf regions. Ocean and domestic container rail ramp operations are also highlighted in the index for both the West Inland and East Inland regions. Fibre2Fashion News Desk (RR)
Yahoo
20-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
ITS Logistics report shows surge stressing US rail ramps after tariffs slashed
Tariff adjustments and operational constraints are shadowing the U.S. domestic supply chain, a new forecast finds. The May forecast for the ITS Logistics US Port/Rail Ramp Freight Index confirms previously projected steep import declines following tariff increases on Chinese goods, while highlighting emerging issues at rail facilities. There are also alarming cargo theft trends that are expected to impact the industry throughout 2025. The latest index data validates earlier projections of significant import volume reductions resulting from heightened tariffs on Chinese goods. Simultaneously, rail ramps in strategic regions are experiencing operational pressure as shippers increasingly utilize interior point intermodal (IPI) routing to manage frontloaded inventory. This shift in logistics strategy has created new operational challenges while exposing vulnerabilities in the supply stress levels are elevated for Chicago; Memphis and Nashville, Tennessee; Louisville, Kentucky; Atlanta; Columbus, Ohio; and Toronto. Ramps through the Atlantic, Pacific, Western and Gulf regions show normal ramp operations. Negotiators on May 12 announced a temporary tariff reduction agreement between the U.S. and China. Under this 90-day arrangement, the U.S. has lowered tariffs from 145% to 30%, while China has reduced duties on U.S. goods from 125% to 10%. This adjustment has created immediate market optimism, with shippers eager to resume imports, replenish depleted inventories and prepare for upcoming holiday seasons. The sudden surge in demand, coupled with uncertainty about long-term availability of Chinese imports, appears likely to trigger another frontloading event, potentially driving an early start to peak season for key industries, particularly retail. 'I have clients with thousands of containers pre-loaded in China that are ready to come in,' said Paul Brashier, vice president of global supply chain at ITS, in a note. Over the next four to six weeks, Brashier expects a surge of containers, calling the 90-day pause 'the pivotal moment for supply chain planning out of China.'Preparation for peak season With increasing evidence pointing toward accelerated shipping activity, industry experts recommend immediate action to secure necessary resources. 'Shippers should be prepared to increase trucking and equipment capacity immediately to ensure they can withstand volatility and get their goods to market on time,' said Brashier. Companies that fail to secure adequate transportation and equipment capacity risk significant delays and potential inventory shortages during what appears to be developing into an earlier and potentially more extended peak season than initially anticipated. Emerging challenges in cargo theftCompounding these market dynamics is a troubling rise in cargo theft. Criminal networks in both domestic and international markets are increasingly exploiting vulnerabilities in supply chain systems, including technology meant to enhance operational efficiency. Recent media reports estimate annual losses from cargo theft approaching or exceeding $1 billion. Highway, a leader in fraud prevention solutions, reported blocking more than 914,000 fraud attempts in 2024, with over 400,000 blocked in Q1 of 2025 alone — a dramatic increase highlighting the escalating sophistication of criminal operations targeting freight movements. Association of American Railroads data revealed a 40% year-over-year increase in container theft incidents in 2024, creating additional concerns as more shippers utilize IPI routing. In the months before April's tariff announcement, many companies redirected frontloaded inventories from congested ports to inland rail facilities, inadvertently creating new bottlenecks at these locations where cargo theft is now surging. 'Using IPI offers more storage elasticity and allows shippers to avoid 3PL storage fees on frontloaded inventories,' Brashier said. 'However, chassis availability and congested ramp operations are becoming more frequent, and theft at interchanges between rail providers is a serious ongoing concern.' This growing security crisis has prompted industry stakeholders to demand federal intervention as vulnerabilities in supply chain operations continue to increase. ITS said companies should prepare for an early peak season that will likely extend throughout the third quarter. Organizations should implement comprehensive security measures, particularly for high-value shipments moving through rail interchanges. Looking ahead to Q4, additional market factors including tax policy changes, deregulation initiatives and Federal Reserve policy adjustments could potentially stimulate economic growth, driving higher year-over-year volumes and creating additional capacity challenges. Subscribe to FreightWaves' Rail e-newsletter and get the latest insights on rail freight right in your inbox. Find more articles by Stuart Chirls continues work to expand capacity and fluidity in Vancouver Southern California international intermodal volume sees weekly decline State of Freight takeaways: Freight crash may turn into sudden revivalCoal, grain keep US rail freight ahead of 2024 levels The post ITS Logistics report shows surge stressing US rail ramps after tariffs slashed appeared first on FreightWaves.
Yahoo
15-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
ITS Logistics May Port Rail Ramp Index: Heavy Import Volumes and Pent-up Demand from China Set to Pull Forward Peak Retail Season and Cause Transportation Challenges for U.S.
--The anticipated disruptions and capacity challenges compound the fraud crisis plaguing cargo and freight operations. -- ITS Logistics May Port Rail Ramp Index RENO, Nev., May 15, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- ITS Logistics today released the May forecast for the ITS Logistics US Port/Rail Ramp Freight Index. This month's index confirmed the previous projections of a steep import drop-off following tariff increases on Chinese goods. In addition, rail ramps in key regions are experiencing operational stress as shippers redirect front-loaded inventory to interior point intermodal (IPI) routing, all while cargo theft at rail interchange points shows distressing trends for shippers and providers in 2025. On Monday, trade officials announced that the U.S. and China agreed to a temporary tariff reduction, with the U.S. lowering tariffs from 145% to 30% and China lowering its tariffs on U.S. goods to 10% from 125%. With the new rates officially in place for the next 90 days, shippers are eager to restart imports, replenish inventories, and prepare for upcoming holiday seasons. The sudden surge in demand and uncertainty surrounding long-term availability of Chinese imports has the potential to spur another frontloading event that drives an early start to peak season for businesses in key industries like retail. 'I have clients with thousands of containers pre-loaded in China that is ready to come in,' said Paul Brashier, Vice President of Global Supply Chain at ITS Logistics. Over the next four to six weeks, Brashier says he expects a surge of containers, calling the 90-day pause 'the pivotal moment for supply chain planning out of China.' Brashier continued, 'Shippers should be prepared to increase trucking and equipment capacity immediately to ensure they can withstand volatility and get their goods to market on time.' Adding to emerging market challenges, industry experts are reporting a surge in cargo theft. Criminal networks in the U.S. and internationally are exploiting weaknesses in current supply chain systems, as well as technology intended to improve overall efficiency, to steal freight. CNBC recently reported industry-wide losses estimated to be close to $1 billion or more a year. A leader in fraud prevention solutions, Highway, cited in its quarterly Freight Fraud Index that the company blocked more than 914,000 fraud attempts in 2024, and over 400,000 were blocked in Q1 of 2025 alone. Additionally, the Association of American Railroads (AAR) data showed a 40% year-over-year increase in container theft incidents in 2024. In the months preceding the April tariff announcement, shippers turned to IPI to move front-loaded goods away from congested ports — only to create new chokepoints at inland rail ramps, where cargo theft is now surging. This is occurring as industry stakeholders demand federal intervention as the current freight fraud crisis escalates, leaving vulnerable supply chains at risk. 'Using IPI offers more storage elasticity and allows shippers to avoid 3PL storage fees on front-loaded inventories,' Brashier explained. 'However, chassis availability and congested ramp operations are becoming more frequent, and theft at interchanges between rail providers is a serious ongoing concern.' Amid industry professionals seeking ways to best navigate the current supply chain disruptions, ITS advises companies to prepare for an early kick-off to peak season that lasts through Q3. Additionally, as the supply chain industry enters Q4, tax policy, deregulation, and federal reserve policy could spur economic growth that drives higher year-over-year (YOY) volumes. ITS Logistics offers a full suite of network transportation solutions across North America and distribution and fulfillment services to 95% of the U.S. population within two days. These services include drayage and intermodal in 22 coastal ports and 30 rail ramps, a full suite of asset and asset-lite transportation solutions, omnichannel distribution and fulfillment, LTL, and outbound small ITS Logistics US Port/Rail Ramp Freight Index forecasts port container and dray operations for the Pacific, Atlantic, and Gulf regions. Ocean and domestic container rail ramp operations are also highlighted in the index for both the West Inland and East Inland regions. Visit here for a full comprehensive copy of the index with expected forecasts for the U.S. port and rail ramps. About ITS LogisticsITS Logistics is one of North America's fastest-growing, asset-based modern 3PLs, providing solutions for the industry's most complicated supply chain challenges. With a people-first culture committed to excellence, the company relentlessly strives to deliver unmatched value through best-in-class service, expertise, and innovation. The ITS Logistics portfolio features North America's #18 asset-lite freight brokerage, the #12 drayage and intermodal solution, an asset-based dedicated fleet, an innovative cloud-based technology ecosystem, and a nationwide distribution and fulfillment network. Media ContactAmber GoodLeadCoverageamber@ A photo accompanying this announcement is available at in to access your portfolio
Associated Press
15-05-2025
- Business
- Associated Press
ITS Logistics May Port Rail Ramp Index: Heavy Import Volumes and Pent-up Demand from China Set to Pull Forward Peak Retail Season and Cause Transportation Challenges for U.S.
RENO, Nev., May 15, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- ITS Logistics today released the May forecast for the ITS Logistics US Port/Rail Ramp Freight Index. This month's index confirmed the previous projections of a steep import drop-off following tariff increases on Chinese goods. In addition, rail ramps in key regions are experiencing operational stress as shippers redirect front-loaded inventory to interior point intermodal (IPI) routing, all while cargo theft at rail interchange points shows distressing trends for shippers and providers in 2025. On Monday, trade officials announced that the U.S. and China agreed to a temporary tariff reduction, with the U.S. lowering tariffs from 145% to 30% and China lowering its tariffs on U.S. goods to 10% from 125%. With the new rates officially in place for the next 90 days, shippers are eager to restart imports, replenish inventories, and prepare for upcoming holiday seasons. The sudden surge in demand and uncertainty surrounding long-term availability of Chinese imports has the potential to spur another frontloading event that drives an early start to peak season for businesses in key industries like retail. 'I have clients with thousands of containers pre-loaded in China that is ready to come in,' said Paul Brashier, Vice President of Global Supply Chain at ITS Logistics. Over the next four to six weeks, Brashier says he expects a surge of containers, calling the 90-day pause 'the pivotal moment for supply chain planning out of China.' Brashier continued, 'Shippers should be prepared to increase trucking and equipment capacity immediately to ensure they can withstand volatility and get their goods to market on time.' Adding to emerging market challenges, industry experts are reporting a surge in cargo theft. Criminal networks in the U.S. and internationally are exploiting weaknesses in current supply chain systems, as well as technology intended to improve overall efficiency, to steal freight. CNBC recently reported industry-wide losses estimated to be close to $1 billion or more a year. A leader in fraud prevention solutions, Highway, cited in its quarterly Freight Fraud Index that the company blocked more than 914,000 fraud attempts in 2024, and over 400,000 were blocked in Q1 of 2025 alone. Additionally, the Association of American Railroads (AAR) data showed a 40% year-over-year increase in container theft incidents in 2024. In the months preceding the April tariff announcement, shippers turned to IPI to move front-loaded goods away from congested ports — only to create new chokepoints at inland rail ramps, where cargo theft is now surging. This is occurring as industry stakeholders demand federal intervention as the current freight fraud crisis escalates, leaving vulnerable supply chains at risk. 'Using IPI offers more storage elasticity and allows shippers to avoid 3PL storage fees on front-loaded inventories,' Brashier explained. 'However, chassis availability and congested ramp operations are becoming more frequent, and theft at interchanges between rail providers is a serious ongoing concern.' Amid industry professionals seeking ways to best navigate the current supply chain disruptions, ITS advises companies to prepare for an early kick-off to peak season that lasts through Q3. Additionally, as the supply chain industry enters Q4, tax policy, deregulation, and federal reserve policy could spur economic growth that drives higher year-over-year (YOY) volumes. ITS Logistics offers a full suite of network transportation solutions across North America and distribution and fulfillment services to 95% of the U.S. population within two days. These services include drayage and intermodal in 22 coastal ports and 30 rail ramps, a full suite of asset and asset-lite transportation solutions, omnichannel distribution and fulfillment, LTL, and outbound small parcel. The ITS Logistics US Port/Rail Ramp Freight Index forecasts port container and dray operations for the Pacific, Atlantic, and Gulf regions. Ocean and domestic container rail ramp operations are also highlighted in the index for both the West Inland and East Inland regions. Visit here for a full comprehensive copy of the index with expected forecasts for the U.S. port and rail ramps. About ITS Logistics ITS Logistics is one of North America's fastest-growing, asset-based modern 3PLs, providing solutions for the industry's most complicated supply chain challenges. With a people-first culture committed to excellence, the company relentlessly strives to deliver unmatched value through best-in-class service, expertise, and innovation. The ITS Logistics portfolio features North America's #18 asset-lite freight brokerage, the #12 drayage and intermodal solution, an asset-based dedicated fleet, an innovative cloud-based technology ecosystem, and a nationwide distribution and fulfillment network. Media Contact Amber Good LeadCoverage [email protected] A photo accompanying this announcement is available at
West Australian
12-05-2025
- Business
- West Australian
Trump China trade deal: Tariff pause means new surge in freight shipments, and higher prices
Another surge in trade from China to the US should be getting underway, according to retailers and logistics executives, as the initial trade deal struck by the US and China leads importers to move forward with shipments during the 90-day pause on the steepest tariffs implemented by President Donald Trump. On Monday, the US and Chinese governments announced a trade deal, though the details of the US-China pact are still sketchy. But in the short term the most important aspect of the agreement is the suspension of the so-called reciprocal tariffs, though broad-based 10 per cent duties will remain in effect, as well as a 20 per cent tariff related to fentanyl. 'I have clients with thousands of containers pre-loaded in China that is ready to come in,' said Paul Brashier, vice president of global supply chain at ITS Logistics. Over the next four to six weeks, he expects a surge of containers, calling the 90-day pause 'the pivotal moment for supply chain planning out of China.' 'The 30 per cent tariff for 90 days will start goods flowing again for small businesses,' said Bruce Kaminstein, a member of NY Angels and founder and former CEO of cleaning products company Casabella. But the reprieve for small businesses will not eliminate their larger worries. 'They are being held hostage to an erratic policy. Businesses are in difficult situations, so they will make this work somehow as they always do,' he said. 'Tariffs at the 20 per cent level didn't stop shippers from frontloading in March and April,' said Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos. 'US ocean import volumes were up 11 per cent year over year in that stretch, so the current 'reduced' 30 per cent level should see a restart of shippers pulling forward demand to beat a possible August tariff hike.' Rick Muskat, president of family-owned shoe retailer Deer Stags, which imports its goods from China and sells in major retailers including Macy's, Kohl's, JCPenney, and on Amazon, tells CNBC that the 30 per cent tariffs will allow it to resume shipments from China, but container rates will likely skyrocket due to pent-up demand. 'Our costs will go up closer to 40 per cent,' he said. 'So we will have to raise prices for fall deliveries.' The timing of holiday shipments will lead to even more frontloading by importers, he said. Without being able to know if a permanent deal will be reached, and with the bulk of holiday goods needing to leave China in August and September, 'there will be a lot of front-loading inventory due to the uncertainty of what follows the 90-day pause,' he said. There is still lingering frustration with the Trump administration for a trade policy that has whipsawed and already cost their businesses. Muskat said Deer Stags had one shipment subjected to the 145 per cent tariffs that was moved into a bonded warehouse — a secure storage facility that is supervised by US Customs without tariffs needing to be paid — to wait and see if the tariffs would be lowered. The additional storage cost for that one container is well over $US10,000 ($15,693). 'Now we will release that inventory into our distribution center, and will have absorbed all the costs involved for no good reason!' Mr Muskat said. 'This all adds up.' Reduced tariffs on Chinese goods at 30 per cent will also come amid expectations of rising costs in the supply chain as more companies look to frontload orders again. With the typical gross margin for consumer products companies in the range of 40-50 per cent, a 30 per cent tariff is difficult to work into many business models, Mr Kaminstein said. 'For importers overall, the 30 per cent level may still make their product and overall profitability a challenge,' said Alan Baer, CEO of logistics company OL USA. 'Volume increases, space and price may be another hurdle to leap over given the number of blank sailings announced by carriers.' Blank sailings of freight vessels from China have been on the rise throughout the trade war. Xeneta data shows the four-week rolling average for offered vessel capacity on the Transpacific trade route from China to the US West Coast is down 17 per cent since April 20. Blanked (cancelled) sailings are up 86 per cent in the same period. A combination of price increases and some absorption of margin by companies, plus a reduction of fixed expenses, will be needed, Mr Kaminstein said, and big questions remain unanswered for business owners: 'The unpredictable is a killer for businesses. How do you quote 90 days out? How do you forecast a cash flow statement? How do you make long-term capital decisions? If the intent of this tariff policy is to bring manufacturing back to the US, how does a company deal with the unpredictability of the future?' Steve Lamar, CEO of the American Apparel and Footwear Association, says the tariff pause is a good development, but it will not stop prices from going up. 'Sadly, the residual 30 per cent tariff (stacked on top of the existing Section 301 and MFN tariffs) will still make for an expensive back-to-school and holiday season for most Americans,' Mr Lamar said. 'If freight rates spike due to the tariff-induced shipping disruptions, which will take months to unwind, we could see costs and prices creep up further.' In some retail niches, tariffs remain much higher. Matt Priest, CEO of Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America, tells CNBC that some kids' shoes are still subject to a 97.5 per cent duty even with the decrease, due to pre-existing duties that are still levied on the product. 'That's unacceptable. We've outlined clear, reasonable exemptions in our letter to the administration, and we urge them to take action to ease the burden on Americans further. Our industry needs relief — and so do the families we serve,' Mr Priest said. Beyond retail, CEOs across the economy continue to speak with lawmakers on the impact of the tariffs inside critical industries, while they rush to bring in orders. Eric Byer, CEO of the Alliance for Chemical Distribution, said the damage to the chemical supply chain has been done, and now there will be a scurry of activity to replenish inventory during the new tariffs pause, with some gaps in time where it's possible there is no supply. 'A couple of our biggest members over the weekend said the stockpiling they all did was going to tide them over until Memorial Day,' Mr Byer said. 'After that, the fear sets in as the warehouses that are now in the 80-90% full range will drop precipitously, likely to less than 10 per cent by the middle to end of June,' he said. 'I suspect we will see an incredibly active ordering frenzy that will once again have too few ships ready to accommodate the demand (like Covid all over again),' he added. Mr Byer said inventory is already extremely tight for phosphoric acid, used in detergents and cleaning products, a wide range of drinks (like citric, soda, sports drinks, etc.), and in fertiliser. Other chemicals where inventories are tight include ascorbic acid found in Vitamin C, ammonium bicarbonate used to make baking/cleaning products, and sodium thiocyanate, a critical chemical for concrete used in construction. 'This will kick off peak season and run hard until the third quarter,' Mr Brashier said. 'There are a lot of construction and manufacturing projects slated for 2026, and these companies have deadlines to hit, and the projects are being staged for breaking ground in early 2026.' Any progress on Trump's tax bill, and other deregulation policies, as well as any Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, may also fuel a shipments spike into 2026. Peter Sand, chief shipping analyst at Xeneta, warns the surge will lead to a spike in ocean freight prices. 'Ocean freight could be up to 20 per cent in the short term from China to the US West Coast,' Mr Sand said. That would be coming off a major decline in rates. According to Xeneta, average spot rates are down 56% and 48% from China to the U.S. West Coast and US East Coast since January 1. 'Shippers will take the 90-day window of opportunity to ship as many goods as possible into the US and this will put upward pressure on freight rates,' Mr Sand said. 'Carriers responded to falling volumes from China to the US by slashing container shipping capacity and redeploying it onto other trades, such as the Far East to Europe. It takes time to shift capacity back again, so a revival in volumes from China to US may mean shippers have to pay a little 'over the odds' in the short term,' he added. Stephen Edwards, CEO of the Port of Virginia, tells CNBC it has been reviewing and planning scenarios that would lead to a surge in Chinese containers. 'We've all gone back to our financial models of what happened during Covid, what happened during the Panama Canal water restrictions, what happened when the Red Sea changes happened, and other scenarios prior to that to see what happened with the reduction in trade and then the recovery,' Mr Edwards said. He added that the most important thing for the supply chain is to be able to know what the 'playing field' is. 'Once we know the playing field, the supply chain is very agile. Yes, there are parts of the supply chain that take longer, but very quickly, we will all adapt to that new environment,' he said. 'What's needed now is a long-term deal — not just with China but with all our trading partners — so we can predictably make long-term trade, investment, and sourcing decisions,' Mr Lamar said. Matthew Shay, CEO of the National Retail Federation, said the temporary pause is a critical first step to provide some short-term relief for retailers and other businesses ahead of the holiday season. He added the US-China agreement 'lays the foundation for substantial progress' with not just China, but with many other nations. But many businesses will continue to wait for more certainty before making significant production and investment decisions given the changing nature of these challenges, according to Adoniro Cestari, head of trade and working capital solutions for Citi. He added that as seen during the Covid pandemic, regardless of short-term outcomes, companies will be more active with risk management strategies related to possible long-term volatility around tariffs and barriers. 'The continued uncertainty is a difficult way to run a business.' Mr Muskat said.
