Latest track of Hurricane Erin, impacts on Jersey Shore waves, rip currents
Many Shore towns have imposed strict bans on swimming and boogie boarding, and officials are urging people to stay out of the ocean during the next few days because of the rough surf and powerful rip currents.
As of Tuesday afternoon, Hurricane Erin continued to spin in the open Atlantic — managing to stay away from land. The storm's center was about 630 miles southwest of Bermuda and 655 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.
Erin is packing sustained winds of 105 mph. Although that's weaker than it was on Monday, because the hurricane encountered dry air and wind shear, forecasters say Erin remains a dangerous storm and could regain some strength on Wednesday.
The National Hurricane Center says Hurricane Erin will have wide-reaching impacts because its size is large, with its hurricane-force winds extending outward up to 80 miles from its center and tropical-storm-force winds reaching out up to 230 miles.
Although Erin's rain bands are not expected to reach New Jersey, gusty winds up to 35 to 40 mph could be blowing along the Jersey Shore on Wednesday and Thursday, according to the National Weather Service.
A stalled frontal system — unrelated to Hurricane Erin — will bring mostly cloudy skies and some light rain showers to parts of New Jersey, mainly in the southern region, Tuesday night.
'More widespread showers and maybe a rumble of thunder' are expected on Wednesday as an upper-level trough of low pressure approaches our region.
Forecasters say the trough will gain extra moisture from Erin, so the rain could be heavy at times and cause sporadic flash flooding Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.
The good news is the trough 'will eventually carry Hurricane Erin out to sea,' the weather service noted.
Hurricane Erin is expected to make it closest pass to New Jersey on Thursday — a few hundred miles offshore.
Erin's impacts on N.J.
Because it will not be making landfall and is expected to remain very far from New Jersey, Hurricane Erin will not bring much rain or strong winds outside of coastal areas, forecasters said.
However, the storm will be packing a big punch in terms of rough surf, huge crashing waves and very dangerous rip currents, along with some moderate tidal flooding and beach erosion, according to the National Weather Service and AccuWeather.
A high surf advisory is in effect for the entire Jersey Shore from Tuesday afternoon through Friday morning, with forecasters calling for breaking waves of 6 to 9 feet on Wednesday and as high as 8 to 13 feet on Thursday in the surf zone in Monmouth and Ocean counties.
In Atlantic and Cape May counties, breaking waves are expected to stretch up to 6 to 9 feet high on Wednesday and 7 to 11 feet on Thursday in the surf zone.
Offshore waves out in the ocean could get as high as 12 to 15 feet at times, the weather service noted.
The National Weather Service said this could turn out to be the roughest surf conditions in New Jersey since the remnants of Tropical Storm Isaias hit our region in early August 2020. Isaias produced 10-foot to 12-foot breakers at the Jersey Shore.
The Shore also had a high surf advisory with 8-foot breaking waves in early August 2024 as the remnants of Tropical Storm Debby impacted our region, and 8-foot breaking waves in June 2023 caused by a non-tropical storm system circulating offshore, the weather service said.
Swimming bans at Jersey Shore
Erin is already stirring up the Atlantic enough to prompt at least 16 beaches in New Jersey to post red warning flags and ban swimming on Tuesday.
Some beaches, including Cape May, are flying double red flags — indicating the serious threat posed by the crashing waves and powerful rip currents.
In addition to swimmers, many beaches are also banning boogie boarders, while some are allowing experienced boarders only.
Several beaches are planning to keep their swimming bans in place on Wednesday and Thursday, while others are making decisions on a day-by-day basis.
Officials in Manasquan posted a stern warning on the borough website, urging swimmers to stay out of the ocean when rip currents are strong, when warning flags are posted, and whenever lifeguards are off duty.
'Persistent large waves, strong long-shore currents, and powerful rip currents are creating extremely hazardous conditions at our beaches,' they wrote.
They noted that rip currents are 'powerful, channeled currents of water that flow away from the shoreline and can quickly pull even strong swimmers out to sea.'
'If caught in a rip current, remain calm, don't fight the current, and swim parallel to the shore until you are out of the current,' the Manasquan note says.
Current weather radar
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Len Melisurgo may be reached at LMelisurgo@njadvancemedia.com or on X at @LensReality.
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