SoftBank's AI investment spree to be in focus on at Q1 earnings
Analysts and investors are keen for updates on how they will be financed, the timeline for returns to materialise and whether assets will be sold to fund the new projects.
SoftBank has embarked on its biggest spending spree since the launch of its Vision Funds in 2017 and 2019.
It is leading a US$40 billion funding round for ChatGPT maker OpenAI. SoftBank has until the end of the year to fund its US$22.5 billion portion, although the remainder has been subscribed, according to a source familiar with the matter.
It is also leading the financing for the Stargate project - a US$500 billion scheme to develop data centres in the United States, part of its effort to position itself as the 'organiser of the industry,' founder Masayoshi Son said in June.
SoftBank has yet to release details on what kinds of returns its financing of the Stargate project could generate. The extent of third-party investment will determine what other financing tools, such as bank loans and debt issuance, it may have to deploy.
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In July, SoftBank raised US$4.8 billion by selling off a portion of its holding in T-Mobile.
'If other sources of capital are less supportive, SoftBank could look to asset-backed finance, which is collateralised by equity in other holdings,' Macquarie analyst Paul Golding said.
The Japanese conglomerate is expected to post a net profit of 127.6 billion yen (S$1.11 billion) in the April-June quarter, according to the average estimate of three analysts polled by LSEG.
That would mark SoftBank's second consecutive quarter of profit and follow its first annual profit in four years when it was helped by a strong performance by its telecom holdings and higher valuations for its later-stage startups.
Its results are, however, typically very volatile and difficult to estimate due to manifold investments, many of which are not listed.
SoftBank's performance in exiting from investments and distributing profits has been patchy of late. The Vision Funds had made a cumulative investment loss of US$475 million as of end-March.
That said, 13 of 18 analysts have a 'buy' or 'strong buy' rating for SoftBank's stock, according to LSEG.
Although there is some concern in the market that AI-related valuations have become bubbly, they continue to climb.
OpenAI is in early-stage discussions about a stock sale that would allow employees to cash out and could value the company at about US$500 billion, according to the source - a huge jump from its current valuation of US$300 billion. REUTERS
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Business Times
5 hours ago
- Business Times
Hyperlocal deliveries fuel 300% stock rise for Shopee owner Sea
[SINGAPORE] In the battle royale of global e-commerce, the names are familiar and formidable: Amazon. TikTok Shop. Shein. Temu. But in South-east Asia, home to 675 million people and a US$160 billion online shopping market, the reigning monarch is an app the colour of a traffic cone. It is called Shopee. And it is thriving. Owned by Singapore-based Sea Ltd, Shopee has pulled off one of the more improbable corporate comebacks in recent memory, sending its stock soaring more than 300 per cent since the start of 2024. A key secret weapon is a little known logistics operation powered by an army of homemakers, students and retirees. And the help of some very large Ikea bags. That operation is SPX Express, a homegrown in-house delivery network that Sea spent years building in the shadows. While rivals like plastered ads across the city for Black Friday and TikTok Shop flooded feeds with flash sales, Shopee was busy rewiring the infrastructure of South-east Asian commerce one community at a time. They are a familiar sight in Singapore. The retired 'uncle' in flip-flops, slinging parcels across a housing block in an ever-practical blue Ikea bag. Or an entrepreneurial homemaker busily sorting a makeshift Shopee kiosk beside the elevator. They are the human backbone of SPX Express, which now handles the majority of Shopee's several billion parcels annually. And Wall Street has noticed. Shopee's success has helped Sea inch towards a US$100 billion market cap, on the heels of Singaporean banking giant DBS, the region's most valuable company. The stock, listed on the New York Stock Exchange, has soared 324 per cent since hitting a low in January last year. Of the 41 analysts tracked by Bloomberg who rate Sea, 33 of them have a 'buy' recommendation on the stock. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up 'Sea's significant recovery was largely driven by growth in its e-commerce business, which was executed really well during the post-Covid period,' said Hussaini Saifee, an equity research analyst at Maybank Securities, who rates the stock a 'buy.' In 2021, Shopee was facing a conundrum: demand was exploding – especially during the Covid pandemic – but its delivery pipeline was buckling under the pressure. Until then, Shopee had relied mostly on third-party carriers like J&T Global Express and Singapore Post to navigate the logistical complexity of South-east Asia: thousands of islands, alleys too narrow for vans, dirt roads more familiar to scooters than trucks. That changed almost overnight. As online orders more than doubled in 2021, Sea bet big on building its own logistics arm. During a 2022 Sea earnings call, chief executive officer Forrest Li pledged to build up its logistics business, spending nearly US$1 billion that year alone. Lowering the cost of delivering parcels will be 'key to long-term growth,' he said. It was a big risk during a difficult period. Sea had just lost almost 90 per cent of its value from its 2021 peak. Investors were disillusioned about its money-making potential in a global tech rout, scrutinising Sea's growth prospects after shoppers emerging from pandemic lockdowns started cutting back on online purchases. The gaming and e-commerce giant had cut about 7,000 jobs to try assuage some of these concerns. It also shuttered its e-commerce operations in some European and Latin American markets and said it would reduce expenses to cope. CEO Li brought in Hoirul Hafiidz Bin Maksom, a bespectacled 43-year-old former hospital operator, experienced in coordinating large local teams in a high stakes, time-sensitive, customer-centric environment. Over the span of two years, as Hoirul obsessed over shortening delivery timings and ways to bring down costs, Sea built up a network of delivery drivers, warehouses and thousands of collection points. The market share of its logistics operations in South-east Asia, which was essentially non-existent in 2022, grew to about 25 per cent in 2024, according to research firm Momentum Works. 'Covid was a great accelerator for us,' said Hoirul. 'There was definitely a gap in the services available for last-mile logistics, just because e-commerce was just growing too fast during Covid. So we had to do our part and solve this problem.' Today, SPX Express is a finely tuned operation. At midnight, sorting centres buzz to life. Parcels are unpacked, scanned, and routed via conveyor belts into colour-coded plastic bags – blue, orange, green and purple – each representing a different part of the island. One such sorting facility can processes up to 400,000 parcels a day. With SPX Express, 90 per cent of its parcels are delivered the next day in Singapore. In the rest of Asia, almost half of SPX Express orders were delivered within two days. But what's truly characteristic to Shopee begins after the parcels leave the warehouse. SPX Express' edge is in its intimacy. It's the fact that your parcel might be delivered by your retired neighbour, or the kid next door looking to earn pocket money. People like John, a 64-year-old who's been delivering in his neighbourhood for four years, going up and down apartments in a quarter-mile radius to hand over hundreds of parcels every day. He does it for the money, sure – a little extra cash is always nice. But he also likes the community. 'I've made so many friends, I get to chat with elderly neighbours who welcome me into their home and witness milestones of so many families,' John said. Shopee scaled this model. Hoirul's lightbulb moment came while walking through his public housing estate last year. He noticed that neighbours were already informally receiving parcels on behalf of others. Why not pay them? This would be easy to set up, the parcels would be safe and SPX Express would be able to leverage the existing public housing infrastructure of Singapore, where more than 80 per cent of the population lives. So Shopee started doing just that – setting up collection points in the very homes of the people who live in the buildings they deliver to. Shopee now has more than 3,500 of these sites, which also include shops and lockers, across Singapore. Some look like tidy mini post offices. Others are literally living rooms stacked with brown packages and a folding table. Pearlyn Tan and her husband, a delivery driver, run one out of their flat. She handles up to 80 parcels a day. At S$0.30 per package, they earn enough to cover a few days of groceries each week. Then there is Diyana Scott, a TikTok influencer and mother of five, who turned to Shopee after losing her job earlier this year. Her whole family helps. Her kids rotate shifts and greet neighbours collecting their orders. 'I made new friendships with many mothers in the neighbourhood,' Scott said. 'I love it.' 'Shopee's vibrant orange is plastered over thousands of touchpoints all across South-east Asia – delivery trucks, parcel lockers and sometimes even on the back of motorbikes,' said Jianggan Li, founder of Singapore-based research firm Momentum Works. 'This level of visibility, coupled with the human touch, helps Shopee reinforce their presence in the fabric of life of locals; especially across South-east Asia's diverse landscape and hard-to-reach places in the region.' By the fall of 2024, Sea's logistics arm was delivering a majority of its own packages. It also briefly surpassed J&T Express, according to Momentum Works. SPX is also partnering with other companies like Shopify to expand its logistics services. Ahead of Sea's second quarter earnings on Aug 12, the company is forecast to post a record US$5 billion in revenue, according to Bloomberg estimates. Its e-commerce arm is projected to account for 72 per cent (US$3.61 billion) of sales, with value-added services including logistics estimated to contribute US$799 million, up 14 per cent from a year ago. Shopee's market share has jumped to 56 per cent of US$120 billion in gross merchandise value last year, according to Momentum Works based on the top four South-east Asian e-commerce platforms. TikTok Shop and Lazada claimed 19 per cent and 15 per cent, respectively. But SPX Express is not friction-free. Residents complain that they are using shared public spaces to sort parcels and local councils in Singapore often make them shift from one block to another. And the gig-like pay structure, with typical payouts of S$0.50 per parcel, mean workers often hustle longer hours to keep up with rising volumes. Also, while SPX may have briefly overtaken J&T Express in parcel volume, margins remain tight and SPX has yet to prove that it can win outside of Shopee's terrain as it looks to offer its logistics services to more companies. Meanwhile, TikTok Shop remains a formidable force with its tight partnership with J&T Express and deep-pocketed investment in the region. 'TikTok Shop's emergence was a concern for Shopee because they have the capital backing from ByteDance to take market share,' said Maybank's Saifee. 'Shopee's retention of its market share is linked to SPX Express, as well as increasing the assortment on their platform and bringing down prices by working together with sellers.' But it is clear that Shopee has become part of the social fabric in South-east Asia. In Indonesia, SPX collection points operate out of warungs – small family shops that double as pickup depots. In Taiwan, they have been installed in convenience stores and shops filled with Shopee lockers. In Brazil, where Shopee has also expanded, the network is growing too. John, the retiree, has witnessed first hand how fast Shopee has expanded and is not worried about the competition. The number of packages he delivers has tripled in four years. He knows his neighbours' unit numbers by heart and sometimes slips the package behind their shoe rack if they're not home. 'I just take things in my stride,' said John, hurrying off with two Ikea bags full of parcels. BLOOMBERG
Straits Times
7 hours ago
- Straits Times
Can Tesla, VinFast and other foreign EV firms thrive in the Indian market?
Sign up now: Get ST's newsletters delivered to your inbox Police officers directing traffic outside the Tesla showroom ahead of its opening in Mumbai, India, on July 15. – As growth in electric car (EV) sales slows down in the US and Europe, competition is accelerating in India's nascent electric car market with the entry of billionaire Elon Musk's Tesla and Asian carmakers such as Vietnam's VinFast and China's Leapmotor. India is the world's third-largest car market in terms of domestic vehicle sales, and it is predicted to overtake US and China to become the largest by 2030. The government hopes that electric cars will make up 30 per cent of total car sales by then, up from a mere 2.5 per cent out of the 4.3 million cars sold in 2024. But India is also a challenging market with price-conscious consumers, limited charging infrastructure, difficult road conditions, and high import duties on foreign cars. Telsa drove into the Indian market in July with two variants of its Model Y , a popular electric sport utility vehicle (SUV), which come with a hefty starting price tag of around US$70,000 (S$90,000), compared with just US$37,490 in the US, according to Forbes India. A key reason was the import duty, which can rise to 110 per cent, making the SUV more expensive in India than in many other countries. Tesla, which is currently operating in Mumbai and plans to expand to Delhi, is testing the market, said Mr Srihari Mulgund, India new age mobility partner at EY-Parthenon India, a consulting company. Top stories Swipe. Select. Stay informed. Singapore Over 118,000 speeding violations in first half of 2025; situation shows no signs of improvement: TP Singapore Israel's plan to step up Gaza offensive dangerous and unacceptable: MFA Singapore Four men arrested in Bukit Timah believed to be linked to housebreaking syndicates Singapore Criminal trial of Hyflux founder Olivia Lum and five others starts Aug 11 Singapore Why some teens cook despite Singapore's da bao culture Singapore Man arrested over hacking attempt on RedeemSG portal Singapore 'We could feel the heat from our house': Car catches fire in Bidadari area Asia 'Pain in the neck': Cable theft on the track derails train speed and schedules in Malaysia 'They are trying to see how the market perceives the product. There will be learning, and it will help them develop an India product strategy,' he noted. The government is working to expand infrastructure for charging EVs, which will be key to their acceptance. More than 12,000 EV charging stations were in use nationwide in 2024, and the government aims to have 3.9 million by 2030. Leading up to Tesla's entry on July 15, Mr Musk had criticised the high import duties, remarking that they were 'the highest in the world by far, of any large country'. The United States is negotiating lower automotive tariffs as part of the India-US trade deal. Tesla, which competes in the luxury EV sector, has ruled out manufacturing in India, according to Heavy Industries Minister H.D. Kumaraswamy. Operating on a different model in another part of the cost spectrum is Vietnamese EV-maker VinFast, which was named one of Time's 100 most influential companies in 2024. It is taking orders for two premium SUVs, which will be priced in the range of 1.8 million rupees (S$26,500) to 3.5 million rupees, according to Indian media reports. VinFast opened its first showroom in the city of Surat, in the western state of Gujarat, on July 27 and its second in the city of Chennai, in the southern state of Tamil Nadu, on Aug 2. It has also tied up with local partners to create a charging network and for after-sales service, with plans to launch 35 dealerships by the year end in 27 cities. According to VinFast's press release, its car assembly plant in Tamil Nadu is the company's third operational facility globally. The facility, which is part of a 160 billion rupee investment pact inked between VinFast and the Tamil Nadu government in 2024 , will initially make 50,000 vehicles per year. VinFast Asia chief executive Pham Sanh Chau told NDTV news channel: 'This plant lays a solid foundation for us to make Tamil Nadu not just a manufacturing hub for India, but also VinFast's largest export base for South Asia, the Middle East and Africa.' Mr Puneet Gupta, director for India and Asean markets at S&P Global Mobility, said: 'Tesla and VinFast will both serve as catalysts in driving up EV market share in India. They are expected to attract greater attention from consumers towards electric vehicles and help increase confidence in EV technology.' Chinese automobile start-up Leapmotor's electric cars are also being launched in India, by multinational automotive manufacturing corporation Stellantis, which will assemble the vehicles. India is hoping that such assembly plants, which are at the lower end of manufacturing, will be the starting point for building a manufacturing ecosystem of EVs. While domestic EV manufacturers are keen to protect their turf, the government is encouraging foreign carmakers to come to India and make it their EV manufacturing hub in the region. Consumers with higher purchasing power are turning to EVs Sales of electric cars are inching up in India, the world's fourth-largest economy. In 2024, 99,165 electric cars were sold, which is a 20 per cent increase over the previous year, according to the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations. EV growth in India has been led by two- and three-wheelers that accounted for a majority of the over two million EVs sold in 2024. The growth is not coming from the entry-level segment, but SUVs – where cars start at around one million rupees – and the premium segment. Consumers with more purchasing power, who own more than one car and are aware of environmental concerns, are likely leading the trend, said analysts. When Mr Surinder Gera decided to replace his 11-year-old diesel car with an electric SUV, he spent as much time convincing his 21-year-old son, with whom he runs the family clothing manufacturing business, as he did researching cars and the charging infrastructure. The family already owns a petrol car. 'He told me it's too much of a risk, as we travel a lot for our business. But I convinced him. I wanted to bring down my family's carbon footprint,' said the 47-year-old businessman, who is based in the northern Indian city of Ludhiana. In addition, Mr Gera charted every location he had visited in the last five years to see whether charging stations were present along each route. He settled on an SUV made by domestic automobile company Mahindra & Mahindra, which fell within his budget. Mahindra's electric car line-up starts at around 1.5 million rupees. Vocal for local Unlike in other parts of the world, where Chinese EV companies have been rapidly increasing their market share, domestic manufacturers dominate the market in India. China's BYD's, the world's biggest EV-maker, had a US$1 billion investment plan rejected in 2023 amid geopolitical tensions between India and China. So BYD scaled down its plans for India and relies on its assembly plant in the southern city of Chennai, which has an annual capacity of 10,000 to 15,000 units. BYD also imports many of the cars it sells in India. Things may improve for Chinese companies as China and India seek to repair ties following a 2020 clash on their border . More on this topic China's BYD plans push into India's burgeoning electric car market Tata leads with over half of the market share in the electric car segment, followed by MG Motor, which is a joint venture between India's JSW Group and China's Saic Motor. They are followed by Mahindra & Mahindra and China's BYD. Tata Motors, which once had a 70 per cent share, is finding its dominance in the Indian market challenged as more competitors come in with new car models and offer innovations like allowing buyers to lease EV batteries. In response, Tata Motors plans to have around 15 models by 2030. Mahindra & Mahindra in 2024 also announced plans to introduce seven new EVs by 2030. Long and winding road for foreign car brands Newcomers face a squeeze between the competition and aspirational buyers who want multiple features at a low price, said EY's Mr Mulgund. 'India is a very heterogeneous market. There is the rural and urban divide. Building up a dealership and service is no mean feat, and finding the right partners takes time. It can be built, but it's a longer gestation period,' he said. 'The (EV) market is not massive. Price becomes a critical part of any proposition. Indian customers are also ambitious. They want a car at the right price point but want all the bells and whistles. That is a difficult proposition to beat. You need a certain level of scale to deliver that.' Government push In order to push foreign carmakers to manufacture in India, the government in 2025 launched the Scheme to Promote Manufacturing of Electric Passenger Cars in India. Under the scheme, Customs duty is cut to 15 per cent, provided that automakers invest a minimum of 41.5 billion rupees within three years. They can then import 8,000 electric cars with a cost, insurance and freight value of US$35,000 subject to the 15 per cent tax. So far, Tesla has not shown interest, while other car manufacturers such as Mercedes-Benz, Skoda-Volkswagen, Hyundai and Kia have indicated interest, according to Mr Kumaraswamy, the minister. Volvo Car India's managing director Jyoti Malhotra told news agency Press Trust of India that, given the level of investment required, the company would do best to continue to assemble its cars in India, as it is doing, for now. As more benefits are seen, and we anticipate bigger scale, then we can evaluate others, he said. For India, going electric is an environmental imperative, given how pollution levels are climbing in its urban centres. According to the World Air Quality Report 2024 by Swiss air-quality technology company IQAir, Delhi is the most polluted capital city in the world and India is the world's fifth-most polluted country, down from No. 3 in 2023. Vehicular emissions contributed 51.5 per cent to Delhi's pollution. Delhi has banned 10-year-old diesel and 15-year-old petrol cars, and on July 1, banned even the refuelling of such cars. Ms Anumita Roychowdhury, executive director of research and advocacy at the Centre for Science and Environment, said: 'For India, electrification is not just an opportunity to clean up the environment, but it is also an industrial opportunity.' She noted that the government, apart from implementing manufacturing schemes needed to strengthen charging infrastructure, also needed to incentivise consumers more, citing measures like free parking for EVs. 'In India, you require industry to develop its manufacturing capacity adequately. You need a supply chain of critical minerals and battery manufacturing. But the supply chain will evolve only if the (automobile) industry perceives there is a demand in the market. Both have to go hand in hand.'
Straits Times
8 hours ago
- Straits Times
As global supply chains shift, China's exports of factory robots see a sharp rise
Sign up now: Get ST's newsletters delivered to your inbox – As new factories spring up in South-east Asia and elsewhere in a global rejig of supply chains, made-in-China robots that staff production lines and handle logistics are rolling out with them. Shipments of factory robots from China – including robots produced there by foreign manufacturers – have risen every year since the Covid-19 pandemic, nearly tripling in value from 2020 to reach US$1.13 billion (S$1.45 billion) in 2024. Exports for the first half of 2025 hit US$746 million, a year-on-year growth of almost 60 per cent, according to figures from China's General Administration of Customs. The top three destinations were Vietnam, Mexico and Thailand, The Straits Times' calculations show . 'The sharp rise in shipments (to these countries) underscores the ongoing shift of manufacturing capacity away from the mainland,' said Dr Dan Wang, China director at consultancy Eurasia Group in Singapore. She added that the bulk of such exports were lower-end models for the automotive and electronics sectors. Trade tensions, rising costs and a pursuit of supply chain resilience have prompted both Chinese and foreign firms to diversify production away from the 'factory of the world'. The relocation of supply chains represents a business opportunity for Chinese industrial robot-makers in a market dominated by Japanese and European incumbents, said Mr Su Lian Jye, chief analyst at Singapore-based technology research firm Omdia. 'If a Chinese company is expanding overseas, they will bring their local supplier (of factory robots) along as well,' he said. Top stories Swipe. Select. Stay informed. Singapore Over 118,000 speeding violations in first half of 2025; situation shows no signs of improvement: TP Singapore Israel's plan to step up Gaza offensive dangerous and unacceptable: MFA Singapore Four men arrested in Bukit Timah believed to be linked to housebreaking syndicates Singapore Criminal trial of Hyflux founder Olivia Lum and five others starts Aug 11 Singapore Why some teens cook despite Singapore's da bao culture Singapore Man arrested over hacking attempt on RedeemSG portal Singapore 'We could feel the heat from our house': Car catches fire in Bidadari area Asia 'Pain in the neck': Cable theft on the track derails train speed and schedules in Malaysia Siasun Robot & Automation , a leading Chinese factory robot-maker based in north-eastern Shenyang city, said it has benefited in part from such a dynamic. 'When we first set up a branch in Thailand in 2021, our first customer was a Chinese carmaker,' said Mr Zhao Chen, chief executive of the company's Asia-Pacific headquarters in Singapore. The client, which had previously used Siasun's robots in China, engaged the company to outfit its new production line in Thailand. Some foreign companies that had used Siasun's robots in China also placed subsequent orders for their overseas factories in places including Malaysia, Singapore and Germany, boosting the company's sales, Mr Zhao told ST. Siasun's products includ e automated guided vehicles that can move goods around factories, warehouses and ports, as well as robotic arms which can move along six axes to perform tasks like car welding. The company's exports nearly tripled from 2020 to reach 507 million yuan (S$90.7 million) in 2024, according to its earnings statements. Over at Jaka Robotics in Shanghai, vice-president Liz Chang said her company has gained 'significant market opportunities' as more industries move into South-east Asia, leading to demand for fresh production capabilities. A number of its major clients in China, including Japan's Toyota, the US' Flextronics and China's Luxshare Precision, have factories in South-east Asia, she said, and the company – which opened an office in Malaysia in 2023 – sees the region as a key export market. Jaka's collaborative robots – robots that can work safely alongside humans – have been put to work in factories in South-east Asia that make car parts, electronics, food and beverages, and more, she added. Outbound direct investment by Chinese firms in South-east Asia surged 34.7 per cent year over year in 2023, according to the Commerce Ministry's figures. The manufacturing industry was the largest recipient . Omdia's Mr Su said the international market for industrial robots is still dominated by Japanese and European firms, whose advanced robots are integrated with clients' systems and prized for their reliability and precision. But Chinese robot-makers are gradually gaining a larger slice of the pie, helped by their competitive pricing, he said. By his estimate, China's industrial robots cost about 30 per cent to 35 per cent less than those made by its foreign competitors. Companies making robots and their components have mushroomed in China, as the country in 2015 mounted a push to become a production hub in this and other high-tech industries. Today, it has more than 930,000 companies in robotics-related fields, according to figures cited by state media in August 2025. The output of industrial robots has also surged: China produced some 369,316 units in the first half of 2025, up 35.6 per cent year on year, official figures show. China itself is the world's largest market for industrial robots, but fierce domestic competition has also driven Chinese robot-makers to venture abroad. One such firm is Speedbot Robotics, a Changsha-headquartered company that makes intelligent industrial robots, including one that can scan and detect spray-painting defects in car factories. 'We are looking to expand to areas such as South-east Asia, where the automotive manufacturing industry is growing,' said Mr Wei Xinghua, deputy sales director at the company, which already sells such robots to Canada. Another is Fairyland Technology from Wuhan, which intends to start selling its robots overseas in the second half of the year, said sales engineer Gong Jiawei. He added: 'We have pretty much sold to every domestic client we can possibly get, and we've appointed and trained dedicated staff to serve the foreign market. 'We are ready to go big overseas.'
