Analysis: The end of the two-state illusion: West Bank is gone, Jordan is in the firing line

Ammon

10 hours ago

Ammon News - Analysis - Successive Israeli governments, whether Labor, Likud, or their extremist coalitions today, have never viewed the West Bank as occupied land. Within the Zionist project, it is not a disputed territory but a divine entitlement – 'Judea and Samaria,' core to the mythology of Eretz Israel.
The Israeli presence there is not a military necessity or a negotiating chip. It is the bedrock of a colonial vision that treats Palestinian sovereignty as a threat to be dismantled, not a right to be recognized.
'Creeping annexation'
Today, the occupation state is executing the most aggressive stage of this project through silent, sustained annexation. Without declaring it formally to avoid diplomatic fallout while the genocide continues in Gaza, Tel Aviv is redrawing maps on the ground.
It is expanding settlements at an unprecedented pace, building bypass roads exclusively for Jewish settlers, and entrenching the architecture of apartheid across Area C, which is the largest segment in the occupied West Bank, comprising over 60 percent of the territory. Israeli military control, sanctioned by the 1993 Oslo Accords, is being leveraged to achieve full territorial domination.
The occupation state exploited its 13 June military assault on Iran to escalate its chokehold on the occupied West Bank by erecting new checkpoints, blocking access to Palestinian villages and towns, intensifying daily raids and mass arrests, and severely restricting the daily life of some 3.2 million Palestinians. A systematic destruction of infrastructure in refugee camps has displaced at least 40,000 Palestinians in recent months – a slow, quiet ethnic cleansing unfolding beneath the fog of war.
These tactics are reinforced by an Israeli cabinet decision on 11 May to initiate widespread land registration in Area C. While not officially labelled a 'Regularization Law,' the 'land settlement process' mirrors the intent and structure of the 2017 legislation by legalizing settler outposts and formalizing the theft of Palestinian land.
The revived effort gives the occupation state sweeping authority to expropriate land and deepen its hold over occupied territory under the guise of bureaucratic order.
In parallel, Israeli authorities moved to revive the long-stalled E1 settlement plan near occupied East Jerusalem, which includes the construction of 3,412 settler housing units. The plan would cut off occupied East Jerusalem from the rest of the occupied West Bank and forcibly displace Bedouin communities like Khan al-Ahmar.
In late May, the Israeli cabinet also approved the establishment of 22 new illegal settlements across the occupied West Bank and retroactively legalized several existing settlement outposts. This reinforces the apartheid architecture stretching from Jerusalem to the Jordan Valley.
The goal is not a secret – to reshape the map in ways that render a future Palestinian state geographically and politically unviable. It is the creation of a West Bank with no Palestinian sovereignty, no territorial contiguity, and no future state. Under this plan, compliant Palestinian Authority (PA) will govern civil affairs under the boot of Israeli military control, a Potemkin authority with no power, no land, and no dignity.
Jordan faces the heat
In the face of these developments, Jordan is perhaps the most concerned neighboring state. The Hashemite Kingdom shares deep historical, geographic, and societal ties with the occupied West Bank, particularly during the period of union from 1948 to 1967. This history grants Amman special sensitivity to changes across the Jordan River.
Yet what raises alarm is the absence of a serious, clear, and direct Jordanian position on the growing threat of Israeli control over the occupied West Bank. Official statements remain limited to generic diplomatic objections, lacking any firm deterrent policy or strategic mobilization.
The Hashemite Kingdom has long feared being forced into playing the role of a 'substitute homeland' for Palestinians. Ideas like the 'Alternative Homeland' and confederation – which aim to shift the Palestinian issue onto Jordanian soil – are not new. They have resurfaced cyclically since the 1970s, but today they appear increasingly structured as an alternative path to liquidate the Palestinian cause.
More than half of Jordan's population is made up of Palestinian refugees and citizens of Palestinian descent, with deep familial and national ties to the occupied West Bank. Any attempt to dissolve the two-state formula without a sovereign Palestinian alternative risks turning Jordan into a demographic pressure valve. It would trigger unrest, displace new waves of Palestinians, and unravel the fragile equilibrium within the kingdom.
Jordanian officials have consistently warned that forced transfers of Palestinians would be considered acts of war. Their concern is not hypothetical. Israeli lawmakers have repeatedly promoted variations of the 'Jordan is Palestine' plan, where West Bank Palestinians would either be displaced or ruled by Jordan through an Israeli and western-imposed confederation that absolves Israel of all responsibility. The 'Jordanian–Palestinian Confederation' aims to assign Jordan the role of administrating the remnants of the Palestinian population, following Israel's completion of territorial control.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made clear his strategy: Palestinians may receive administrative authority, but not territorial sovereignty. He seeks to preserve Israeli control under a veneer of delegated power, turning any Palestinian 'authority' into a fig leaf for continued domination.
In an interview with Fox News, Netanyahu made a telling statement: 'We aspire to give the Palestinians authority, not land.'
The confederation trap
This is why Amman views the confederation proposal as a strategic trap. Without the establishment of a truly independent Palestinian state, any form of administrative arrangement serves as a smokescreen for annexation.
The real objective is to outsource the management of Palestinians to Jordan until Israel can complete its demographic re-engineering of historic Palestine.
Proponents of this plan believe regional conditions are more favorable than ever. Since US President Donald Trump's first term in office in 2017, several Arab League states have normalized relations with Israel as part of the 2020 'Abraham Accords.' This is despite longstanding treaty violations, including Israel's repeated breaches of the 1994 Wadi Araba peace agreement with Jordan, one of the first Arab states to formalize relations with the occupation state.
Others, including Saudi Arabia, are reportedly nearing similar agreements. After the fall of former Syrian president Bashar al-Assad's government, Syria – now ruled by ex-Al-Qaeda chief Ahmad al-Sharaa – is also being groomed to join this 'Abraham Alliance.'
Elements of this scheme can already be found in US President Donald Trump's 2020 so-called 'Deal of the Century' peace plan and in a 2020 Saudi initiative for a 'Hashemite Kingdom of Palestine,' allegedly endorsed by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS).
Diplomacy buried under bulldozers
With Washington's political posture shifting, the collapse of the two-state formula has gone from possibility to policy. Trump has made clear that he intends to discard Palestinian statehood altogether.
His State Department has refused to endorse the two-state solution, and in February, Trump declared, 'The US will take over the Gaza Strip, and we will do a job with it too,' in reference to his post-war Gaza Riviera plan.
Even UN Security Council Resolution 2735, drafted by former US president Joe Biden's administration and adopted in June 2024, now rings hollow. It calls for two democratic states, Israel and Palestine, living side by side in peace. But Israel's ongoing annexation makes this vision impossible. Tel Aviv is burying the resolution in the same ground it paves for Zionist settlers.
Jordan, which rushed to Israel's defense during the three direct Iran–Israel military engagements, is no longer on the sidelines – it is now directly threatened by the occupation state's expansionist ambitions.
As Tel Aviv accelerates its efforts to erase the Palestinian cause, Amman finds itself cornered – pressured by Washington's apathy, surrounded by Arab states deepening ties with Israel, and bound to a peace treaty that no longer offers even the pretense of balance.
The PA, once Washington's preferred administrator for Palestinian affairs, is collapsing under the weight of its own irrelevance. It commands no land, wields no authority, and retains little popular legitimacy. If it disintegrates entirely, Jordan will be the first to feel the impact.
The Hashemite monarchy faces a moment of real historic peril. To avoid being conscripted into managing Israel's occupation by proxy, Amman must break decisively from failed formulas and build a coherent, collective Arab-Palestinian front.
Without this, Jordan risks being swept into a new regional order in which it becomes both the buffer and the scapegoat for the final burial of Palestinian statehood.