OPEC cuts non-OPEC+ oil supply forecast amid falling investment

Arab News

14-05-2025

RIYADH: OPEC has lowered its forecast for oil supply growth from non-OPEC+ producers in 2025, citing reduced capital spending and mounting market pressures.
In its monthly report released Wednesday, OPEC said it now expects oil output from countries outside the OPEC+ alliance to increase by about 800,000 barrels per day in 2025 — down from last month's estimate of 900,000 bpd.
OPEC+—which includes OPEC members, Russia, and other allied producers— has struggled in recent years to stabilize the market amid surging production from US shale and other non-member nations. A slowdown in that growth would ease the path for OPEC+ to manage supply more effectively.
The group also reported a projected 5 percent decline in capital expenditure on oil exploration and production outside OPEC+ in 2025. This follows a $3 billion increase in 2024 investment, which brought total spending to $299 billion.
'The potential impact on production levels in 2025 and 2026 of the decline in upstream E&P oil investments will constitute a challenge, despite the industry's continued focus on efficiency and productivity improvements,' the report said.
While the US remains the leading source of non-OPEC+ supply growth, OPEC has revised its US output forecast downward, now expecting an increase of 300,000 bpd in 2025 compared to 400,000 bpd predicted last month.
Oil prices have come under additional pressure recently following OPEC+'s decision to accelerate output increases in May and June, as well as the implementation of new trade tariffs by President Donald Trump.
Despite global economic headwinds, OPEC left its forecasts for oil demand growth in 2025 and 2026 unchanged, after cutting them last month. The decision reflects updated data from the first quarter and the influence of shifting trade dynamics.
The group welcomed the recent trade deal between the US and China, calling it a sign of potential longer-term stabilization.
'The 90-day trade agreement between the US and China suggests the potential for more lasting agreements, likely supporting a normalization of trade flows but at potentially elevated tariff levels compared to pre-April escalations,' OPEC said.