
What another Liberal minority government means for the public service
The dust has settled on the 2025 federal election, and now the Liberals are headed back to Parliament with a minority government.
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The results saw the Liberals win 169 seats, just three shy of a majority, and have left several questions about what's in store for the public service as the governing party will have to negotiate with others to get things done.
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Lori Turnbull, a political science professor at Dalhousie University, told the Ottawa Citizen that the 45th Parliament 'is shaping up to be all kinds of precarious.'
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Turnbull said she doesn't foresee another supply and confidence agreement between the Liberals and the NDP. Meanwhile, the national vote was split almost evenly between the Liberals and Conservatives with other parties collectively winning just 15 per cent of the vote. It's why Turnbull said the coming political cycle could be turbulent.
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The Liberals have promised a spending review and a cap on the size of the public service. But observers say the political reality that has emerged after the election may affect Prime Minister Mark Carney's plans for the federal government's workforce.
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The Liberal platform said the party was 'committed to capping, not cutting, public service employment,' but didn't offer any further details on what 'capping' would mean. Liberal campaign officials, who were not authorized to comment publicly on the plan, have told the Ottawa Citizen that those details will emerge from the forthcoming spending review.
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Such a spending review is not uncommon. In fact, it's expected for any new government, especially one focused on fiscal prudence. In his election campaign, Carney promised to balance the operating budget over three years, a timeline that may not be possible in a minority government.
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Turnbull said a substantial program review, like those seen under prime ministers Stephen Harper, Jean Chrétien and Paul Martin, requires many years and political runway, both of which could be limited for Carney. So Turnbull said she doesn't expect significant cuts or reform soon given the precarious nature of the new government.
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