Oil price today: MCX crude price hits Jan 2025 high post escalation in Israel-Iran war, fear of Hormuz Strait closure
MCX crude oil futures for July contract opened higher at ₹ 6,475 per barrel as against its previous close of ₹ 6,404 level. MCX crude oil prices rallied 2.28% to a high of ₹ 6,550, and were last trading 1.80% higher at ₹ 6,519 per barrel.
In the global market, prices for Brent Crude Oil surged on Monday to their highest level since January as the U.S. decided to support Israel in military actions against Iran's nuclear facilities, raising concerns about supply.
Brent crude futures increased by $1.88, or 2.44%, reaching $78.89 a barrel at 1122 GMT. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose by $1.87, or 2.53%, to $75.71, according to a report from Reuters. Since the conflict started on June 13, Brent has climbed 13%, while WTI has seen an increase of approximately 10%.
Prices increased after U.S. President Donald Trump claimed he had "obliterated" Iran's main nuclear facilities during strikes over the weekend, in coordination with an Israeli attack, escalating the tensions in the Middle East as Tehran pledged to protect itself.
Iran ranks as the third-largest crude oil producer within OPEC. Market observers anticipate further price increases due to growing concerns that retaliation from Iran could involve closing the Strait of Hormuz, a key passageway for approximately one-fifth of the global crude oil supply.
'Even though the possibility of the closure of Hormuz Strait is a threat, it is important to understand that this has always been only a threat and the Strait had never been closed. The fact is that the closure of Hormuz Strait will harm Iran and Iran's friend China more than anyone else,' said Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments.
According to Kotak Institutional Equities, the recent oil price spike is primarily driven by market worries about the Iran-Israel conflict. While risks have increased on shipping in Strait of Hormuz (SOH), so far there is no impact on supplies. Prior to the conflict, oil markets were well-supplied. Rather, OPEC+'s planned reversal of voluntary cuts was an overhang.
'In our view, due to the conflict, some of Iranian oil production is impacted (current production ~3.5 mb/d, exports ~1.7 mb/d); there is significant OPEC+ spare capacity of ~6 mb/d. Also, at higher than US$70/bbl, the US could see further increases in production. We do not expect oil prices to remain elevated for long and maintain our oil price assumption of US$70/bbl for FY2026/27E and LT,' said the brokerage in its report.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Mint
an hour ago
- Mint
GST reforms hopes, S&P upgrade lift Sensex, Nifty 50: Which sectors to invest in and how far can the rally go? Explained
The Indian stock market surged on Monday, August 18, driven by easing global headwinds and domestic policy optimism. Investors cheered hopes of a possible resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, indications from US President Donald Trump about reconsidering secondary tariffs on India, and S&P's upgrade of India's sovereign credit rating. The Sensex jumped over 1,100 points to touch an intraday high of 81,765.77, while the Nifty 50 rallied to 25,022, reflecting broad-based buying interest. "Dalal Street is cheering a string of positive developments after the weekend. The government's proposal to overhaul the GST structure into a simpler two-slab system of 5% and 18% has been the key driver of today's rally, particularly in tax and export-sensitive segments such as autos, consumer staples and insurance. Investors are also encouraged by the revival in private capex, which signals that the long-awaited investment cycle is turning up," said Saurav Ghosh, Co-founder of Jiraaf. Analysts believe a GST overhaul will lift incomes across the economy by lowering costs and stimulating consumption. Combined with income tax reforms, this will empower Indian households to spend and save more, reinforcing domestic demand. "Taken together, tax reforms, stronger private investment and improved ratings are fueling optimism that India's growth story is firmly anchored in internal resilience despite global trade frictions and stalled talks with the US," said Ghosh. The rally was broad-based, with the Nifty Bank and Nifty Financial Services indices gaining 0.66% and 1.4%, respectively, following S&P's upgrade of long-term issuer credit ratings for major banks and financial institutions including SBI, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, and Bajaj Finance. The Nifty Auto index jumped over 4%, while the Nifty Consumer Durables index added 3.5%, reflecting optimism around GST-driven consumption. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments, said, 'Sectors like autos and cement, currently in the 28% tax slabs, are expected to benefit. Companies such as TVS Motors, Hero, Eicher, M&M, and Maruti may respond positively. Insurance companies are also likely to gain from the GST revision.' Nikhil Gangil, Founder of Intrinsic Value, added that while today's surge is largely sentiment-driven, structural gains could emerge in autos, kitchen appliances, and electronics. Agrichemical and fertiliser stocks remain resilient due to government protections against US imports, positioning these sectors well for mid- to long-term performance, he added. Going ahead, Tarun Birani, Founder and CEO - TBNG Capital Advisors, advised investors that while momentum remains strong, near-term volatility is likely as further macro data and policy statements unfold. On the technical front, analysts believe a decisive close can push the Nifty 50 index higher. Vinit Bolinjkar of Ventura Securities said that the rally was triggered by pent-up bullish sentiment. 'Foreign Institutional Investors have been net sellers in August, leaving long positions at historic lows. The Nifty's formation of higher lows from the 24,350–24,400 support zone demonstrated resilience, setting the stage for upward movement. Profit booking by Domestic Institutional Investors may occur at higher levels, but the overall trajectory remains positive. A decisive close above 25,000 could drive new highs.' Ajit Mishra noted that the Nifty 50 has surpassed the immediate hurdle of the short-term 20 DEMA and is now hovering around 25,000. A decisive break above this level could trigger further short covering, pushing the index toward 25,250 in the near term, Mishra said. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
Time of India
an hour ago
- Time of India
Textiles, gems & jewellery, seafood must diversify markets fast to cushion Trump's tariff blow: Shrenik Ghodawat, Sanjay Ghodawat Group
Live Events With US President Donald Trump 's 50% tariff on imports of Indian goods creating uncertainty across sectors, Shrenik Ghodawat, Managing Director of Sanjay Ghodawat Group , emphasises that industries such as apparel, textiles, gems and jewellery, and seafood, which are heavily dependent on the US market, must rapidly diversify their export destinations to mitigate the effects. While the full impact will require time to evaluate, projections suggest next year's GDP growth may decline by 0.4 to 1 percentage points, Ghodawat notes. In an interaction with, Ghodawat discusses the Trump tariffs, his group's future plans, organised supermarkets, rural demand, and more. Edited excerpts:The 25% additional tariffs imposed by the US could be a significant setback for India's exports. The US is our largest export market, accounting for about 18% of our shipments (worth $86.5 billion annually) and roughly 2.2% of our gross domestic product (GDP). If Indian goods become 50% costlier, customer demand will be hit, especially in sectors like apparel, textiles, gems & jewellery, and seafood, where the US is a major industries will need to diversify markets quickly to cushion the blow. While the full impact will unfold over time, estimates suggest that next year's GDP growth could slow by 0.4 to 1 percentage export contribution from the US market is not very significant. Therefore, we don't anticipate much impact on our overall to various estimates, India's rural FMCG market is thriving, with volumes growing at high single digits compared to low single digits in urban areas. We are well-positioned to capture this demand through our consumer and retail businesses. Ghodawat Consumer Limited (GCL) continues to invest in a rural-focused distribution strategy, while Ghodawat Retail Pvt Ltd (GRPL) is steadily expanding its rural footprint through Star Localmart stores. From tailoring product offerings to meet the unique needs of rural consumers to running localised marketing campaigns that truly resonate, both businesses are strategically placed to benefit from this shift in demand from urban to rural currently operate more than 125 Star Localmart stores. Our mission is to bring 'Modern Retail experience to' focusing purely on smaller towns and villages of India. We want to go to the bottom of the pyramid, which most of the current players are unlikely to look at for the next five to seven years. There are no organised supermarkets in such places. We know the challenges a shopper faces when she or he is living in a small want to capture that space completely in terms of retail availability and customer loyalty. With this our aim is to become India's largest rural retail chain, making quality groceries more accessible and affordable to everyone, and ultimately driving a positive change in the way rural communities shop for their essentials.I don't see it as an 'either—or' debate. E-commerce and physical retail stores serve different shopping missions. And I strongly believe that both channels can coexist and even complement each other. While e-commerce is easily accessible and provides a seamless shopping experience, retail stores offer personal interaction, immediate product availability, and a tactile experience that many consumers still than viewing e-commerce as a threat to traditional retail, I would consider it as an opportunity for growth and innovation. Retailers embracing technology and adapting to the changing behaviours of consumers will not only thrive but also successfully co-exist with we don't comment on specifics of our revenues and profits, we have set an ambitious target to grow fivefold as a group in the next five years. This will be fuelled by aggressive expansion across our key business verticals like aviation, FMCG, education, retail, and real estate. Star Air, our aviation arm, already flies to 26 airports with 11 aircraft, and our plan is to have a 50-aircraft fleet by both consumer and retail businesses, our plan is to achieve Rs 5,000 crore in top line in the next five years. We are dedicated to scaling our businesses while creating a meaningful impact on the communities we I mentioned, our ambition is to achieve fivefold growth over the next five years. And this growth will be driven both organically and inorganically. We are always looking for the right opportunity, and if it comes at the right price, we will pursue form an important part of India's economic backbone, and we work with several of them across our value chains—whether as suppliers, service providers, or channel partners. While we do not have a formal MSME-specific programme at this stage, our businesses naturally engage with and support MSMEs through procurement, local sourcing, and collaborative projects. For example, in our retail business, we have 50% national brands, 30% regional brands, and 20% local see strong potential to deepen this engagement in the future and are actively exploring ways to create more structured opportunities for MSME participation in our growth journey.
Business Standard
an hour ago
- Business Standard
Indices trade with major gains; consumer durables shares climb
The key equity indices continued to trade with strong gains in the mid-morning trade, supported by hopes of big changes to the GST system and a recent upgrade to Indias credit rating. On the occasion of Independence Day, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said the government plans to bring generational GST reforms before Diwali, which could benefit sectors like auto, FMCG, and consumer goods. However, global worries remain, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and possible 25% US tariffs on Indian products starting August 27. The Nifty traded above the 24,950 mark. Consumer Durables shares extended gains for the three consecutive trading sessions. At 11:30 ST, the barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, soared 958.78 points or 1.21% to 81,556.44. The Nifty 50 index rallied 324.15 points or 1.32% to 24,953.70. The broader market outperformed the frontline indices. The S&P BSE Mid-Cap index added 1.42% and the S&P BSE Small-Cap index rose 1.48%. The market breadth was strong. On the BSE, 2,689 shares rose and 1,235 shares fell. A total of 227 shares were unchanged. Buzzing Index: The Nifty Consumer Durables index added 3.51% to 38,641.55. The index surged 4.38% in the three trading sessions. PG Electroplast (up 8.77%), Voltas (up 7.86%), Blue Star (up 7.79%), Amber Enterprises India (up 7.6%) and Bata India (up 6.67%), Havells India (up 5.8%), Whirlpool of India (up 4.94%), V-Guard Industries (up 3.92%), Dixon Technologies (India) (up 3.67%) and Century Plyboards (India) (up 2.63%) added. Stocks in Spotlight: Dilip Buildcon advanced 1.85% after the company announced that the DBL-RAMKY Consortium has been declared as the L-1 bidder for Rajasthan Water Grid Project, which is worth Rs 2,952 crore. Brahmaputra Infrastructure hit an upper limit of 5% after its consolidated net profit soared 121.82% to Rs 15.04 crore in Q1 FY26 as against Rs 6.78 crore posted in Q1 FY25. Lemon Tree Hotels jumped 6.38% after its material subsidiary, Fleur Hotels, has received a letter of award (LoA) from the Delhi Development Authority (DDA) for the licence rights to a prime land parcel in Nehru Place, New Delhi. Global Markets: Asian markets traded higher on Monday after the U.S.-Russia summit ended without a ceasefire agreement. As per media reports, the U.S. President Donald Trump now seemed more aligned with Moscow on seeking a peace deal with Ukraine instead of a ceasefire first, after meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday. The reports further state that Trump will meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and European leaders later on Monday to discuss the next steps, though actual proposals are vague as yet. US stocks were mixed on Friday as Wall Street tempered its rate-cut hopes amid economic data this week that showed higher-than-expected wholesale inflation and a rise in July retail sales. The Dow rose 0.08%, or 34.86 points, to 44,946.12. The S&P 500 slipped 0.29%, or 18.74 points, to 6,449.80; and the tech-heavy Nasdaq dipped 0.4%, or 87.693 points, to 21,622.977. The US Census Bureau data released Friday morning showed retail sales rose 0.5% in July from the prior month. Meanwhile, US consumer sentiment deteriorated in August, falling for the first time in four months as inflation expectations jumped in the longer term. The US Fed will continue to be in focus this week as central bank members travel to Jackson Hole, Wyoming, for the annual economic policy symposium.
