South Korea exports to rise in July ahead of US tariff deadline: Reuters poll
Exports from Asia's fourth-largest economy are forecast to have risen 4.6% from a year earlier, according to a median estimate from a survey of 22 economists.
That would be slightly faster than the 4.3% increase in June and mark the biggest gain since December 2024.
Data for the first 20 days of the month showed exports fell 2.2% as shipments to the U.S. and China - its biggest trading partners - declined, although semiconductor exports jumped 16.5%.
U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened South Korea with 25% tariffs, and officials are scrambling to clinch a trade deal before an August 1 deadline.
Trade rival Japan last week signed an agreement lowering its tariffs to 15%, adding to pressure on Seoul to make a deal that is at least no worse.
The second half of the year is set to be much tougher for the country's exporters.
"It is inevitable there will be an overall shock to U.S.-bound exports, because the possibility is high that the tariff rate on South Korea will at least be 15% or higher even after trade negotiations," said Chun Kyu-yeon, an economist at Hana Securities.
The Bank of Korea said last week that U.S. tariffs would start to weigh on exports from the third quarter. Robust tech exports in the second quarter helped the trade-reliant economy grow at its fastest pace in more than a year.
The median estimate for July trade balance stood at a surplus of $5.36 billion, narrower than June's $9.08 billion, which was the biggest since September 2018.
Imports were projected to have increased 2.0% after gaining 3.3% in June.
South Korea - the first major exporting economy to report trade figures each month - is scheduled to release data for July on Friday, August 1, at 9 a.m. (0000 GMT).
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
The Independent
13 minutes ago
- The Independent
China's exports and imports picked up in July, helped by the pause in Trump's higher tariffs
China 's exports surged 7.2% in July from a year earlier while its imports grew at the fastest pace in a year, as businesses rushed to take advantage of a truce in President Donald Trump' s trade war with Beijing. However, analysts said the improvement also reflected a low base for comparison in July 2024. Exports to the United States sank nearly 22% year-on-year, while imports from America fell almost 19%. But exports to Africa and Southeast Asia surged at double-digit rates as Chinese businesses diverted sales to other markets. Tariffs on Chinese goods are being considered separately from the new higher tariffs that took effect on Thursday for dozens of U.S. trading partners. China's global trade surplus for 2025 rose to $683.5 billion by the end of July, nearly a third higher than the surplus for the same period last year. The data showed that China's surplus in July was $98.2 billion, while its exports to the United States were $23.7 billion than its imports of U.S. goods. U.S. imports from China are subject to tariffs of at least 30%, with some products facing much higher import duties. Trump earlier had ordered still higher rates of up to 245%, and Beijing responded in kind, but the two sides agreed to pause those to allow time for trade talks. It's unclear if the truce will be extended beyond an Aug. 12 deadline following the latest round of negotiations last week in Sweden. The Trump administration has also raised tariffs on imports from countries other than China that it suspects of being 'transshipped" via other countries. For example, the import duty on Vietnam's exports to the U.S. now stands at 20%. For transshipped goods, it's 40%. 'With the temporary boost to demand from the U.S.-China trade truce already fading and tariffs on shipments rerouted via other countries now rising, exports look set to remain under pressure in the near term,' Zichun Huang of Capital Economics said in a report. Economists had been expecting China's dollar-denominated exports to grow less than 6% in annual terms in July, on a par with June's 5.8% rate. But improved trade with the rest of the world has helped offset the impact of Trump's trade war. Imports rose 4.1% last month from a year earlier, the most since July 2024, with higher shipments of crude oil, copper and soybeans. China's exports of rare earths that are vital for making many high-tech and other products and Trump has made ensuring U.S. access to such vital minerals a key part of trade negotiations, leading Beijing to promise to loosen some controls. In July, China's exports of rare earths fell 17.6%, compared with a nearly 50% fall the month before. In January-July, its rare earths exports fell 24.2% in dollar terms although they rose more than 13 percent by volume. Exports of vehicles, fertilizer, ships and auto parts also saw strong growth.
Daily Mirror
14 minutes ago
- Daily Mirror
Apple CEO Tim Cook gives Donald Trump enormous block of gold in weird Oval Office love-in
Tim Cook, whom Donald Trump once referred to as "Tim Apple", handed the US President a large glass desk ornament with a 24 karat gold base as he bid to avoid his wrath with manufacturing investment Apple CEO Tim Cook gave Donald Trump a large block of gold last night in a bizarre Oval Office love-in. The iPhone boss is the latest in a string of tech CEOs to lay it on thick for the "transactional" President, hoping to keep him sweet and avoid his wrath. The tech boss stood alongside Trump in the Oval and announced Apple would increase investment in US manufacturing by $100m over the next four years. It comes after Donald Trump made an unfortunate arm gesture during a tour of the White House roof. READ MORE: What Ghislaine Maxwell said about Donald Trump in 9-hour prison interview READ MORE: MIKEY SMITH: 10 unhinged Donald Trump moments as White House prepares for mystery 'announcement' After they spoke, Cook - whom Trump once referred to as "Tim Apple" - gave the President a desk ornament made from glass manufactured in a Kentucky factory they plan to use for iPhone parts - with a huge base made of 24 carat gold. Although Trump appeared much more enthusiastic about a plastic miniature model of a new kind of stealth bomber he'd been given earlier in the day. It came after Trump criticised Apple and Cook for efforts to shift iPhone production to India to avoid the tariffs his Republican administration had planned for China. While in Qatar earlier this year, Trump said there was 'a little problem' with the Cupertino, California, company and recalled a conversation with Cook in which he said he told the CEO, 'I don't want you building in India.' India has incurred Trump's wrath, as the president signed an order Wednesday to put an additional 25% tariff on the world 's most populous country for its use of Russian oil. The new import taxes to be imposed in 21 days could put the combined tariffs on Indian goods at 50%. "This is a significant step toward the ultimate goal of ensuring that iPhones sold in the United States of America also are made in America," Trump said at the press conference. 'Today's announcement is one of the largest commitments in what has become among the greatest investment booms in our nation's history." As part of the Apple announcement, the investments will be about bringing more of its supply chain and advanced manufacturing to the United States as part of an initiative called the American Manufacturing Program, but it is not a full commitment to build its popular iPhone device domestically. 'This includes new and expanded work with 10 companies across America. They produce components — semiconductor chips included — that are used in Apple products sold all over the world, and we're grateful to the President for his support,' Cook said in a statement announcing the investment. The new manufacturing partners include Corning, Coherent, Applied Materials, Texas Instruments and Broadcom among others. Apple had previously said it intended to invest $500 billion domestically, a figure it will now increase to $600 billion. Trump in recent months has criticized the tech company and Cook for efforts to shift iPhone production to India to avoid the tariffs his Republican administration had planned for China. Apple's new pledge comes just a few weeks after it forged a $500 million deal with MP Materials, which runs the only rare earths producer in the country. That agreement will enable MP Materials to expand a factory in Texas to use recycled materials to produce magnets that make iPhones vibrate. Speaking on a recent investors call, Cook emphasized that 'there's a load of different things done in the United States.' As examples, he cited some of the iPhone components made in the U.S. such as the device's glass display and module for identifying people's faces and then indicated the company was gearing to expand its productions of other components in its home country. 'We're doing more in this country, and that's on top of having roughly 19 billion chips coming out of the US now, and we will do more,' Cook told analysts last week, without elaborating. Get Donald Trump updates straight to your WhatsApp! As the world attempts to keep up with Trump's antics, the Mirror has launched its very own US Politics WhatsApp community where you'll get all the latest news from across the pond. We'll send you the latest breaking updates and exclusives all directly to your phone. Users must download or already have WhatsApp on their phones to join in. All you have to do to join is click on this link, select 'Join Chat' and you're in! We may also send you stories from other titles across the Reach group. We will also treat our community members to special offers, promotions, and adverts from us and our partners. If you don't like our community, you can check out any time you like. To leave our community click on the name at the top of your screen and choose Exit group. If you're curious, you can read our Privacy Notice. News of Apple's latest investment in the U.S. caused the company's stock price to surge by 5% in Wednesday's midday trading. That gain reflects investors' relief that Cook 'is extending an olive branch' to the Trump administration, said Nancy Tengler, CEO of money manager Laffer Tengler Investments, which owns Apple stock. Despite Wednesday's upturn, Apple's shares are still down by 15% this year, a reversal of fortune that has also been driven by the company's botched start in the pivotal field of artificial intelligence.
The Sun
14 minutes ago
- The Sun
Everything you need to know about a Trump, Putin, Zelensky showdown summit – and who has the upper hand
A HISTORIC meeting between Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin and maybe Volodymyr Zelensky could finally decide the fate of the war in Ukraine. With battlefields burning and sanctions ready to bite, this diplomatic showdown could be the start of peace - or another powder keg. 8 8 This isn't just another summit – it's a historic high-stakes gamble. Trump is betting big that Putin wants peace, that Zelensky can stomach compromise, and that America's economic firepower can bring the war to an end. Here is everything you need to know about the major meeting and the men comprising the most explosive political triangle in years. When and where could the summit take place? Trump could sit down with Mad Vlad Putin as early as next week, according to the White House. A trilateral meeting including Zelensky is also on the table - a diplomatic first if it happens. A top aide to Putin, Yuri Ushakov, announced that 'an agreement was agreed in principle to hold a bilateral summit in the coming days,' following a suggestion from the American side. All parties are now working on the details, and while the venue has been agreed, it will be revealed later. The possibility of a trilateral meeting with Zelensky was also raised by US special envoy Steve Witkoff during his talks with Putin yesterday — though Ushakov says Moscow has, for now, left that idea 'without comment.' Don and Vlad last met in person at the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan, on June 28, 2019, during Trump's first term as America's leader. And if Zelensky joins the upcoming meeting, it would mark the first time all three leaders sit at the same table since war erupted in 2022. What will be discussed? One issue dominates: peace in Ukraine. Trump's administration says it is pushing hard for a deal. His special envoy, Steve Witkoff, just wrapped up a three-hour meeting with Putin in Moscow this week, which Trump called "highly productive". But there's a clock ticking. The Republican strongman slashed his original 50-day deadline for a Ukraine peace deal to just 10 days - and that deadline expires Friday. If Putin doesn't budge, Trump is poised to hammer Moscow - and its enablers - with crippling secondary sanctions. India has already been hit with 50 per cent tariffs over its Russian oil purchases - and China could be next. Trump warned: "We did it with India. We're doing it probably with a couple of others. One of them could be China." The White House says Trump has made it clear there will be "biting sanctions" if Russia doesn't agree to a ceasefire. Who has the upper hand? Right now, everything hangs in the balance - and the power dynamic could shift in a heartbeat. Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, former British Army officer and military analyst, said the fact the summit is even happening is a win in itself. But as for who's calling the shots? That's where things get complicated. Noting the Russian leader still believes he's making ground in Ukraine, the expert told The Sun: 'Until fairly recently, it's been pretty clear that President Putin has absolutely no desire for peace. 'His aim at the beginning of his special military operation over three and a half years ago was to subjugate the whole of Ukraine.' According to de Bretton-Gordon, Trump has only recently woken up to the fact that he's being played. 8 8 8 'It would appear that Trump has had a bit of an epiphany, a bit of a change of mind, and has now realised that Putin has been playing him.' And now, Don is bringing the businessman in him and threatening to hit Russia where it hurts most: the wallet. 'If Trump follows through with his sanctions and tariffs… then this is the reason I think that Putin has come to the table,' de Bretton-Gordon explained. 'Economic and financial analysts who really know about these things believe that the Russian economy would peter out pretty quickly without the massive amounts of money and resources it gets from oil.' In other words, Trump holds the economic sledgehammer — if he's willing to swing it. But Putin isn't out of the game. His forces are still advancing, still hammering Ukrainian cities, and still killing civilians. 'Russia seems to be moving forward slowly,' de Bretton-Gordon warned. 'Attacking civilian targets in Ukraine at an unbelievable scale.' Zelensky, meanwhile, remains the wild card. 'The people who are most important here are the Ukrainians,' he said. 'A bad deal for Ukraine is worse than no deal at all.' And that's the real risk. Trump might be chasing headlines, not justice. 'I think Trump probably just wants to get a deal of some description,' the former army officer said. 'One just hopes that Trump doesn't try and do some sort of backhand deal with Putin, just so that he can claim that there is now peace in Ukraine, because the short-term peace is no good to anybody.' So who has the upper hand? Right now, it's still up for grabs. But if Trump sticks to his economic guns, and if Putin starts to feel the heat on the home front, the balance might just tip. Will Trump be able to make a deal? That's the trillion-dollar question. Trump insists he's serious. He's been increasingly frustrated with Putin, telling reporters: "Can't answer the question yet. I'll tell you in a matter of weeks, maybe less. But we made a lot of progress." Zelensky says the pressure is working. "It seems that Russia is now more inclined to a ceasefire," he said, but warned, "The main thing is that they do not deceive us in the details – neither us nor the US." Putin, for his part, has not ruled out a meeting with Zelensky – a U-turn after rejecting talks for nearly five years. But the Kremlin remains cagey. Aides say they're open to a summit "after preparatory work is done at the expert level." Still, Russia continues to play the long game. Putin's demands for peace remain unchanged, and behind the scenes, Moscow is preparing for no limits on nuclear deployments – a chilling echo of Cold War escalation. If talks fail, Trump's next move could ignite a global trade war. A 100 per cent tariff on all Russian goods and those of its allies is on the table. His message to Moscow? Deal or suffer. 8 8 What is the situation on the frontline? While diplomats talk, Putin bombs. Russia has escalated its attacks in Ukraine in recent days - in what some see as a final show of force ahead of the talks. Kyiv, Kherson, Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk - all hit. One missile slammed into a residential tower, killing 31 people, including five children. In Nikopol, a 23-year-old first responder was among the dead. Putin's war machine has launched hundreds of drones and missiles overnight in a relentless blitz. Even as Moscow talks ceasefire, its rockets keep flying. Ukrainian forces, meanwhile, have not backed down - striking deep into Russian territory with precision attacks on refineries, rail hubs, air defences and even military units inside Russia. The Afipsky Refinery in southern Russia went up in flames after a massive Ukrainian strike – a clear message that Kyiv can hit back hard. Just days ago, Russia declared there are now no limits on its deployment of nuclear missiles in a chilling warning to the West. Throwing off its gloves and restraints, Moscow vowed to match US and Nato moves with force, reigniting fears of a Cold War-style arms race. The Russian Foreign Ministry accused America and its allies of creating a "direct threat to the security of our country" by preparing to deploy intermediate-range weapons in Europe. Saying Moscow now has a free hand to respond, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters: "Russia no longer considers itself to be constrained by anything. "Therefore Russia believes it has the right to take respective steps if necessary." The trigger, according to Russia, is the planned US deployment of Typhoon and Dark Eagle missiles in Germany starting next year. The Kremlin said the move shattered what remained of strategic stability, accusing Donald Trump's USA of risking "a dangerous escalation of tensions between nuclear powers." It was the clearest warning yet that Vladimir Putin is prepared to redraw the red lines of nuclear deterrence — and challenge the West head-on. Will there be peace in Ukraine? THE prospect of peace in Ukraine remains uncertain as the Russia-Ukraine war continues into its fourth year. While Trump's diplomatic efforts and the planned meeting signal continued U.S. engagement, the gap between Russia's demands and Ukraine's conditions remains wide. Putin's history of stalling and Zelensky's insistence on a full ceasefire and security guarantees suggest that a lasting peace agreement is unlikely in the immediate term without significant concessions from either side. Next week's meeting may produce a framework or memorandum for future talks, as Putin has indicated, but a concrete peace deal appears distant based on current dynamics. Recent US-brokered talks, including direct negotiations in Istanbul on May 16 and June 2, 2025, have yielded no breakthroughs, though agreements on prisoner exchanges signal some dialogue. US President Donald Trump has pushed for a ceasefire, shortening a 50-day deadline for Russia to negotiate or face sanctions, but tensions persist with Russian advances in eastern Ukraine and intensified drone and missile strikes on cities like Kyiv. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has suggested territorial swaps, while Russia shows little willingness to compromise. With ongoing military escalation and divergent American and European approaches, a lasting peace deal appears distant.
