Two gems of Wall Street finance I want to buy after a 10% index correction!
There are two gems in global finance that I believe can make serious money if purchased at the right price this autumn. Their high beta means a 16% hit if the S&P has the 10% index correction that Morgan Stanley projects.
The best thing at TPG for me is CEO Jon Winkelried, who I first met in Goldman Sachs' cathedral of money at Peterborough Court in 1990's London. He ran FX and commodities then but was later elected partner and the crown prince to both Hank Paulson and Lloyd Blankfein, for whom he ran both merchant banking and the global I-Bank. He joined TPG in 2015 and was the mastermind in two game changer acquisitions – merger arbitrage, real estate and private credit fund manager Angelo Gordon with $78 billion in AUM and later Peppertree Capital, a digital growth specialist with $8 billion AUM.
ADVERTISEMENT
TPG is now a diversified alt invest manager with $260 billion AUM and global franchises in private equity, VC/late stage tech (the firm nurtured the hyper growth of Airbnb, Spotify and Uber, three of the hottest deals in the annals of pre-IPO investing in Silicon Valley. TPG manages only one fourth of Blackstone's $1 trillion plus AUM but it does not have BX's outsized exposure to real estate and private credit at a time when razor slim credit spreads do not remotely price in the prospect of a global recession and the energy high yield debt market is an accident waiting to happen.
Will an economic slump mean busted deals, commercial real estate cash flow angst, credit spread widening and a fall in capital raising AUM and incentive fees. So I will only buy the shares when Mr. Market gives me a 20% discount and the shares tanked to 46, which I expect to happen before November.
All the public Wall Street alt asset managers will take a nosedive, led by Blackstone, KKR, Carlyle and Apollo. Yet Jon Winkelried is my fave crisis manager when the macro storm clouds darken and thus the ideal financier to be the great helmsman of TPG in the coming difficult year.
Winkelried's strategic machine is to rev up LP commitments and raise AUM to $500 billion in the next three years. Will he achieve this admittedly ambitious target amid Trump's capricious economic policy making. Yes but only if Tariff Man does not gut the US economy with a severe recession that then triggers credit contagion. After all, I remember when Blackstone fell from its IPO price of $32 in the summer of 2007 to as low as $5 in the post Lehman Black Death for private credit in the autumn of 2008.
A private equity firm only shows the true metal of its pasture as the Bard of Avon put it in his Henry V when it exits a strategic investment and that is why the judgement/intuition of the Big Guy is ultimately all important. Steve Schwartzman and Blackstone has a net worth of $52 billion, so I wonder what incentive does this master of the universe have at this stage of his career in his late 70's but Jon still has two decades of showtime left in his meteoric banking career.
TPG will surf the digital infrastructure/wireless data tidal wave created by AI and 5G. As rates fall, TPG will deploy $60 billion in cash to digital transformation growth companies all over the world. My buy/sell target on its shares are 48-65 range.
Intercontinental Exchange Inc (ICE) is a world class derivatives and data analytics exchange, which I believe is now takeover bait. Its product spectrum spans energy/natgas futures and options, financials (MBS, FX, equity indices) and softs (cocoa, coffee, sugar, orange juice). Q2 was a beauty and I am convinced we are on the eve of a commodity super-cycle that will make ICE a must own for the great and the good of Wall Street and the City of London. My buy/sell range on ICE is 160-210. Return on patience (ROP) is as critical as ROE in the money game!
Also published on Medium.
Notice an issue? Arabian Post strives to deliver the most accurate and reliable information to its readers. If you believe you have identified an error or inconsistency in this article, please don't hesitate to contact our editorial team at editor[at]thearabianpost[dot]com. We are committed to promptly addressing any concerns and ensuring the highest level of journalistic integrity.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Filipino Times
4 hours ago
- Filipino Times
Marcos Endorses Historic SSS Pension Hike, Cites Economic Growth
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has expressed full support for the Social Security System's (SSS) newly approved three-year pension reform program, describing it as both financially responsible and long overdue for Filipino retirees. The president emphasized that the Philippines can afford the increase due to the country's growing workforce and economic base. The structured pension hike is set to begin in September 2025 and will benefit over 3.8 million pensioners. It comes after extensive discussions between Marcos and Finance Secretary Ralph Recto, who also chairs the Social Security Commission. The reform was approved under Resolution 340-s. 2025 and is based on actuarial studies to ensure sustainability. In a podcast interview, Marcos addressed concerns about the pension fund's longevity, saying responsible financial management would sustain the program. While the fund life will be slightly reduced from 2053 to 2049, he emphasized that the increase will not require higher contributions from members. Instead, the reform is designed to balance social support with fiscal soundness. SSS President and CEO Robert Joseph de Claro hailed the reform as a landmark development in the agency's 68-year history. He said the pension hike reflects the SSS's responsiveness to public demand and economic realities. The reform is projected to inject ₱92.8 billion into the economy over two years, while improving the quality of life for millions of retirees.
Khaleej Times
5 hours ago
- Khaleej Times
UAE: Strong sales push Emaar's profit to Dh10.4 billion during first 6 months of 2025
Emaar Properties on Wednesday announced net profit before tax increased to Dh10.4 billion in the first half of 2025, a growth of 34 per cent compared to the same period last year, driven by robust performance across development, retail, hospitality, and international operations. The master developer reported revenue increasing to Dh19.8 billion, marking a growth of 38 per cent over the same period last year. Its property sales jumped 46 per cent year-on-year to Dh46 billion in H1 2025, surpassing previous sales records. Its revenue backlog from property sales grew to Dh146.3 billion as of June 30, 2025, representing a 62 per cent increase year-on-year. 'Numbers alone don't tell the full story. Behind every sale, every project, every community, there's intent. There's a team asking: how can we do better? How can we make someone's everyday more meaningful? The first half of 2025 reflects that mindset. The focus goes beyond meeting targets to creating lasting impact and fostering stronger connections that inspire continuous growth,' said Mohamed Alabbar, founder of Emaar. Following the upgrade in Emaar's credit rating by S&P Global to BBB+ in the second quarter of 2025, Moody's also raised Emaar's credit rating to Baa1, both with stable outlooks on the back of its strategy and sustained performance. Emaar Development Emaar Development – a subsidiary of Emaar Properties – launched 25 new projects across prime master communities, with property sales reaching Dh40.6 billion, reflecting a 37 per cent surge over the same period last year. Emaar Development reported revenue of Dh10 billion, achieving a growth of 35 per cent year-on-year, and a net profit before tax of Dh5.5 billion, up by 50 per cent compared to the first half of 2024. The consolidated revenue of Emaar Properties from its property development business in the UAE during H1 2025 increased to Dh13.5 billion, up 50 per cent from the same period last year. Revenue backlog from UAE developments reached Dh128.6 billion as of June 30, 2025, marking a 50 per cent increase over H1 2024. 'Rather than reacting to market shifts, Emaar is actively shaping what the future of urban living looks like… We are creating spaces that reflect the aspirations of today and the possibilities of tomorrow, and this is how we turn growth into legacy,' he said. Malls, hospitality, leisure Emaar's shopping malls and leasing portfolio delivered a revenue of Dh3.2 billion in H1 2025, up 14 per cent year-on-year, and EBITDA of Dh2.8 billion, an increase of 18 per cent compared to H1 2024. This growth was driven by continued growth in tenant sales and sustained healthy occupancy across key assets, resulting in increased rental income. As of June 30, 2025, its mall assets maintained an average occupancy of 98 per cent. The Dubai-based master developer's hospitality, leisure, and entertainment businesses recorded revenues of Dh2.1 billion, supported by strong tourist activity and growing domestic demand. Emaar's UAE hotels achieved an average occupancy rate of 80 per cent in H1 2025, compared to 78 per cent in the first half of 2024. The company added two hotels featuring over 600 keys in the first half of 2025, expanding its portfolio and strengthening its presence in the sector. In addition, Emaar's malls, hospitality, leisure, entertainment, and commercial leasing recorded a revenue increase of 15 per cent, reaching Dh5.3 billion during H1 2025, and an EBITDA of Dh4.1 billion, a growth of 16 per cent year-on-year. Its international operations recorded property sales of Dh5.3 billion in H1 2025, marking an increase of 200 per cent over H1 2024, driven by continued demand across key markets, and revenue reached Dh1 billion, up 26 per cent.
Zawya
11 hours ago
- Zawya
Blackstone to acquire Japan's TechnoPro for about $3.4bln, Nikkei reports
TOKYO - Blackstone plans to acquire major Japanese engineering staffing firm TechnoPro Holdings for about 500 billion yen ($3.39 billion), the Nikkei business daily reported on Tuesday. Blackstone will likely offer just below 4,900 yen for each TechnoPro share in the tender offer it plans to launch soon, according to the report. Responding to the Nikkei report, TechnoPro said in a statement that the company is looking into the privatisation by Blackstone as one of the strategic options for enhancing shareholder value, but that nothing has been decided. A Blackstone spokesperson could not immediately be reached for comment. TechnoPro shares closed up 0.4% at 4,977 yen before the report. They had mostly traded in a range between 3,000 yen and 4,400 yen since the start of the year before gaining ground sharply following a Mergermarket report last month that the company was considering privatisation. ($1 = 147.4400 yen)
