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RNZ News
13 minutes ago
- RNZ News
Unemployment rate expected to hit nine-year high
As many as 40,000 jobs may have been shed in the in past couple of years, say economists. Photo: RNZ Unemployment is set to hit its highest level in nearly nine years, as the lagging effects of last year's recession and the sluggish recovery hit hiring and wages. Economists expect the rate to rise to 5.3 percent at the end of June - the highest since the end of 2016 - and up from 5.1 percent in the previous quarter, with jobs having been shed and hiring almost at a standstill. "We expect the unemployment rate to rise... as very modest growth in the labour force - labour supply - meets a small contraction in employment - labour demand," ANZ senior economist Miles Workman said. Economists have picked that the labour market was close to the bottom, but the lack of meaningful growth in the past quarter has cast doubt whether this might be the case. Workman suggested a degree of "labour hoarding" had suppressed unemployment as firms opted to hold on to staff in anticipation of an economic upturn. "If a recovery in economic momentum doesn't do the heavy lifting when it comes to 'right-sizing' firms' labour input, a further reduction in headcount may be needed." ASB senior economist Mark Smith said partial indicators since the last set of numbers had shown falling job advertisements, firms still shedding staff, little problem in finding staff except in specialised positions, and people quitting the workforce. "Earlier falls in hiring and more competition for jobs is expected to continue to deter some candidates from actively seeking work." Westpac senior economist Michael Gordon said chief among the casualties of the downturn and job losses have been young people. "As the economy cooled off, this group has found themselves out of work again or are struggling to get into work in the first place." The overall slide in immigration from post-Covid gains of more than 130,000 a year to a mere 15,000, and a subsequent exodus to Australia, are likely to be marginal influences for the labour market. However, cooling wage growth may be a more significant factor. Expectations are that private sector labour costs grew about 2.3 percent in the June quarter - a four year low - as the weaker employment market shifted the bargaining advantage to employers from workers. That would mean wages falling behind rising inflation, but would also reduce wage pressures on domestic prices. "Wage inflation can be considered broadly consistent with CPI inflation around target, but given we're a decent clip from the labour market entering inflationary territory... it's fair to say that disinflation pressures stemming from the labour market are set to continue for a while yet," Workman said. Kiwibank economists said conditions were right for another Reserve Bank interest rate cut on 20 August. "Downside risks to medium term inflation are growing given the soft labour market and dimming global outlook. "We expect the RBNZ to cut the cash rate by 25bps (basis points) at the August meeting. And they'll need to go to 2.5 percent eventually," they said in a commentary. Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero , a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.
RNZ News
2 hours ago
- RNZ News
Midday Report Essentials for Monday 4th August 2025
business science 6 minutes ago In today's episode, an Auckland school principal is describing the scrapping of NCEA as more window dressing than radical overhaul. Level One will be replaced with foundation literacy and numeracy tests, while Levels 2 and 3 will be replaced with a Certificate of Education and an Advanced Certificate. A 27-year-old woman has been charged with ill-treatment/neglect of a child after a toddler was found inside a suitcase on a bus travelling between Whangarei and Auckland yesterday. The All Blacks squad for the Rugby Championship has been named and there are four potential debutantes in the squad. And Leopard seal song is compared to human nursery rhymes.
RNZ News
4 hours ago
- RNZ News
Political commentators Brigitte Morten and Sue Moroney
Brigette and Sue discuss the proposed changes to NCEA, the weekend's National Party Conference and planned changes to health and safety regulations. Brigitte Morten is a director with public and commercial law firm Franks Ogilvie and a former senior ministerial advisor for the previous National-led government, a National Party member and currently volunteering for the party's deputy leader, Nicola Willis. Sue Moroney is a former MP with the Labour Party and now chief executive of Community Law Centres Aotearoa.
