NBA Draft: Underclassmen are returning to college in record numbers
JT Toppin, a second-team All-American and the reigning Big 12 player of the year, announced earlier this month that he intends to return to the Red Raiders for his junior season.
Projected as a potential second-round pick by NBA scouts and draft analysts, Toppin is exactly the sort of prospect who might have turned pro in the pre-NIL era but now can benefit financially from remaining in college. The 6-foot-9 forward is expected to make about $4 million in NIL earnings at Texas Tech next season, according to CBSSports.com's Matt Norlander, a sum that exceeds the 2025-26 rookie salary scale for all but the NBA's top 15 draft picks.
The skyrocketing NIL market for proven talent across college basketball has made decisions like Toppin's more and more common this draft cycle. Underclassmen who are fringe NBA prospects are returning to college in record numbers rather than chasing NBA two-way contracts or paydays overseas.
Only 106 players entered the 2025 NBA Draft as early entry candidates, the league announced on Tuesday morning. That's the lowest number of early entrants since 2015, down from a peak of 353 in 2021.
Braden Smith, a first-team All-American and the nation's best point guard, revealed earlier this month that he's 'running it back one last time' at Purdue, potentially cementing himself as the preseason Wooden Award favorite.
Thomas Haugh, one of the pillars of Florida's national title run, recently said that he's returning to the reigning champs despite wowing NBA scouts during a breakout NCAA tournament.
Alex Karaban, the last remaining stalwart from UConn's back-to-back title teams, announced on Tuesday that he's coming back for his senior season in hopes of solidifying himself as a 2026 NBA Draft pick while chasing a third championship.
Isaiah Evans is returning to Duke. Flory Bidunga is doing the same at Kansas. So is Trey Kaufman-Renn at Purdue, Richie Saunders at BYU and Jackson Shelstad at Oregon. You'll also see Big East player of the year RJ Luis, Mountain West player of the year Donovan Dent and Missouri Valley player of the year Bennett Stirtz, albeit all playing for different college teams than they did this past season.
The glut of returning talent to college basketball reflects the money that deep-pocketed, top-tier programs are spending to try to build the best possible rosters. The Field of 68's Jeff Goodman reported earlier this month that as many as 15 teams will have $10 million rosters next season. Those in the NIL space who have spoken to Yahoo Sports say that it will take up to $6-8 million just to be competitive in a power conference.
That's a big leap from even a year ago when only the most coveted transfers and prized freshmen could expect to earn seven figures. It's an even more enormous jump from a few years ago when college basketball's biggest brands helped arrange six- or low-seven-figure NIL deals to tempt back-to-the-basket centers Armando Bacot, Hunter Dickinson, Drew Timme and Oscar Tshiebwe back to college.
'There's not that big of a market in the NBA for a certain type of big man,' Bacot told Yahoo Sports in 2022, 'so being able to come back to college and make money is a really good option.'
Is this salary structure sustainable? Will fringe pro prospects continue to earn more as college stars than they can yoyo-ing between the G League and the end of an NBA bench? We'll see.
But for now, this current setup is a coup for players who are finally able to earn market value and for the sport of college basketball as a whole.
Talented underclassmen are returning to college basketball at the highest rate in a decade plus. That can only drive interest in the sport.
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