Japan Ruling Bloc Likely to Lose Upper House Majority, Polls Say
A poll by public broadcaster NHK showed that the ruling coalition is set to secure about 32-51 seats of the 125 up for grabs in Sunday's election, likely leaving it short of the 50 needed to maintain a majority in the chamber. NHK said the ruling bloc faced 'a difficult situation' to keep unfettered control of the 248-member body.
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The Hill
13 minutes ago
- The Hill
Over half of Americans say ‘big, beautiful bill' going to raise health care costs: Poll
More than half of Americans — 57 percent — said in a new survey that they think the GOP's sweeping package extending tax cuts and slashing welfare services will increase their health-care costs. Thirteen percent in the CBS/YouGov poll released Sunday said that the 'big, beautiful bill' will lower their health-care costs and 33 percent said there will be no impact. While the Congressional Budget Office has not yet released a final estimate for the measure as enacted, it projected that 16 million people would lose their health insurance by 2034 under an earlier House-passed version of the bill. This analysis has been the basis for many Democrats' messaging around health care, and health-care advocates have still warned that the final version could be devastating to communities relying on Medicaid. The sprawling package permanently extends many of the temporary tax cuts passed by Republicans during President Trump's first term, alongside making deep spending reductions to Medicaid, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), and other welfare programs. The measure would primarily benefit wealthy Americans, an analysis by the Yale Budget Lab found last month. Democrats have assailed the legislation as a historic transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich and are looking to message around its cuts to health care for the 2026 midterms — even if some of the package's most significant changes don't kick in until 2028. Overall, six in 10 questioned in the CBS/YouGov survey disapprove of the GOP megabill. A similar percentage said that it will help wealthy people and hurt poor people. A separate AP-NORC poll released Saturday found that nearly two-thirds of Americans think the legislation will do more to help wealthy people. In the CBS/YouGov poll, 40 percent of respondents said they thought the measure will increase their taxes. Another 32 percent said they thought their taxes will not be impacted either way. A majority — 56 percent — said that they tied issues regarding the megabill significantly to how they evaluate President Trump's second term. A plurality of Americans, 44 percent, said they had a 'general sense' of the content of the legislation alongside some specifics. Meanwhile, roughly two in 10 — 22 percent — said they had a general idea of it but lacked specifics. The CBS/YouGov poll was conducted between July 16 and July 18, with a sample of 2,343 and a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points.
Yahoo
36 minutes ago
- Yahoo
China begins building world's largest dam, fuelling fears in India
Chinese authorities have begun constructing what will be the world's largest hydropower dam in Tibetan territory, in a project that has sparked concerns from India and Bangladesh. Chinese Premier Li Qiang presided over a ceremony marking the start of construction on the Yarlung Tsangpo river on Saturday, according to local media. The river flows through the Tibetan plateau. The project has attracted criticism for its potential impact on millions of Indians and Bangladeshis living downriver, as well as the surrounding environment and local Tibetans. Beijing says the scheme, costing an estimated 1.2tn yuan ($167bn; £125bn), will prioritise ecological protection and boost local prosperity. When completed, the project - also known as the Motuo Hydropower Station - will overtake the Three Gorges dam as the world's largest, and could generate three times more energy. Experts and officials have flagged concerns that the new dam would empower China to control or divert the trans-border Yarlung Tsangpo, which flows south into India's Arunachal Pradesh and Assam states as well as Bangladesh, where it feeds into the Siang, Brahmaputra and Jamuna rivers. A 2020 report published by the Lowy Institute, an Australian-based think tank, noted that "control over these rivers [in the Tibetan Plateau] effectively gives China a chokehold on India's economy". In an interview with news agency PTI earlier this month, Arunachal Pradesh chief minister Pema Khandu expressed concern that the Siang and Brahmaputra could "dry up considerably" once the dam was completed. He added that the dam was "going to cause an existential threat to our tribes and our livelihoods. It is quite serious because China could even use this as a sort of 'water bomb'". "Suppose the dam is built and they suddenly release water, our entire Siang belt would be destroyed," he said. "In particular, the Adi tribe and similar groups... would see all their property, land, and especially human life, suffer devastating effects." In January a spokesperson for India's ministry of external affairs said they had expressed concerns to China about the impact of mega-dams and had urged Beijing to "ensure the interests of downstream states" were not harmed. They had also emphasised the "need for transparency and consultation with downstream countries". India plans to build a hydropower dam on the Siang river, which would act as a buffer against sudden water releases from China's dam and prevent flooding in their areas. China's foreign ministry has previously responded to India, saying in 2020 that China has a "legitimate right" to dam the river and has considered downstream impacts. Bangladesh also expressed concerns to China about the project, with officials in February sending a letter to Beijing requesting more information on the dam. Chinese authorities have long eyed the hydropower potential of the dam's location in the Tibet Autonomous Region. It's in a massive canyon that is said to be the world's deepest and longest on land, along a section where the Yarlung Tsangpo - Tibet's longest river - makes a sharp U-turn around the Namcha Barwa mountain. In the process of making this turn - which has been termed "the Great Bend" - the river drops hundreds of metres in its elevation. Earlier reports indicated that authorities planned to drill multiple 20km-long tunnels through the Namcha Barwa mountain, via which they would divert part of the river. Over the weekend a Xinhua report on Li Qiang's visit said that engineers would conduct "straightening" work and "divert water through tunnels" to build five cascading power stations. Xinhua also reported that the hydropower dam's electricity would be mainly transmitted out of the region to be used elsewhere, while accommodating for Tibet's needs. China has been eyeing the steep valleys and mighty rivers in the rural west - where Tibetan territories are located - to build mega-dams and hydropower stations that can sustain the country's electricity-hungry eastern metropolises. President Xi Jinping has personally pushed for this in a policy called "xidiandongsong", or "sending western electricity eastwards". The Chinese government and state media have presented these dams as a win-win solution that cuts pollution and generates clean energy while uplifting rural Tibetans. But activists say the dams are the latest example of Beijing's exploitation of Tibetans and their land - and past protests have been crushed. Last year, the Chinese government rounded up hundreds of Tibetans who had been protesting against another hydropower dam. It ended in arrests and beatings, with some people seriously injured, the BBC learned through sources and verified footage. There are also environmental concerns over the flooding of Tibetan valleys renowned for their biodiversity, and the possible dangers of building dams in a region rife with earthquake fault lines. CORRECTION 21 July 2025: An earlier version of this story incorrectly stated that the estimated cost of the dam was $1.67bn. A dam ignited rare Tibetan protests. They ended in beatings and arrests, BBC finds Solve the daily Crossword
Politico
40 minutes ago
- Politico
Trump to ambitious House Republicans: Hold the line
TOP LINE President Donald Trump is doing everything he can to keep GOP control of the House, and it's coming at the expense of some of the chamber's most ambitious members. It started in March, when Trump abruptly yanked Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.)'s nomination to serve as ambassador to the United Nations. But in recent weeks, the president has also played an important role in stymieing efforts from vulnerable House Republicans who were looking to seek higher office in 2026. Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Mich.) is still considering a Senate bid, but that's much to the ire of Trump's top advisers and the National Republican Senatorial Committee, who have gone all-in backing former Rep. Mike Rogers for the seat. Rep. Zach Nunn (R-Iowa) was seriously considering a run for governor, until a meeting with Trump ended in a social media post from the president endorsing his reelection to the House. 'Just spoke to Great Combat Veteran Zach Nunn, and he is committed to the mission of, HOLDING THE MAJORITY,' Trump said on Truth Social earlier this month, before Nunn had announced any decision. The moves underscore the importance of maintaining Republicans' razor-thin majority for Trump's final years in office, and for the most part, the House Republicans are falling in line. 'After prayerful consideration with his family and the strong support from President Trump, Zach is more committed than ever to maintaining the Republican majority and advancing the America First Agenda,' a spokesperson for Nunn said when he made the decision. Some, however, have not. Rep. John James (R-Mich.) launched a bid for governor without Trump's endorsement, and the president made his displeasure clear. 'John James, John James,' Trump said at a June bill signing. 'I don't know; you know he's running for governor, but I'm not sure I'm happy about that, John. Do we have somebody good to take your seat? Because otherwise we're not letting him run for governor.' The next potential target on Trump's chopping block? Battleground New York Rep. Mike Lawler, who has been flirting with a bid for governor. 'I'm going to be meeting with the president at some point soon and have a conversation about the path forward,' Lawler told NewsNation last week. 'But one way or the other, we need to have a united front — whether it's me, whether it's Elise Stefanik — we need to be focused on defeating Kathy Hochul.' It's not just about keeping members in the House. The White House also pushed for Texas' mid-decade redistricting, which could net as many as five seats for Republicans. There's action on the Senate side, too. Trump's team met with Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) last week, as some Republicans brace for her potential retirement. Happy Monday. Reach me: ahoward@ or @andrewjfhoward. Days until the AZ-07 general: 64 Days until the TN-07 primary: 78 Days until the 2025 election: 106 Days until the midterms: 472 Want to receive this newsletter every weekday? Subscribe to POLITICO Pro. You'll also receive daily policy news and other intelligence you need to act on the day's biggest stories. CAMPAIGN INTEL POLLING CORNER — FIRST IN SCORE: The Democratic Governors Association commissioned two polls in Virginia and New Jersey following the passage of the megabill, and both showed that upcoming Medicaid and SNAP cuts were underwater with voters. Now, the DGA is using that polling to hit GOP gubernatorial nominees Winsome Earle-Sears and Jack Ciattarelli. In both polls, 53 percent of voters said they 'prefer a governor who opposes' the recently passed legislation. In Virginia, 55 percent of surveyed voters said they had 'serious concerns' about Earle-Sears' support — a number that rose to 59 percent for Ciattarelli in New Jersey, according to a memo from the DGA shared exclusively with Score. 'The races for governor in Virginia and New Jersey in November will be voters' first opportunity to reject Trump's harmful budget bill – and the GOP nominees will not be able to run from their record of supporting these deeply unpopular Medicaid cuts,' the memo said. Both polls were done by Public Policy Polling. The New Jersey poll surveyed 541 registered voters from July 9-10 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percent. The Virginia poll surveyed 582 registered voters over the same time period and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent. NH SENATE — FIRST IN SCORE II: Remember when the Trump administration called the EB-5 visas 'ridiculous'? Well, New Hampshire Senate candidate Scott Brown, who often talks about the importance of pushing back against China, once went to China to tout that very program, our Daniel Lippman reports. In October 2015, Brown attended the Overseas Investment and Entrepreneurship Summit in Beijing, meeting with business leaders there. He wrote in a Fox Business op-ed days later that 'the primary focus of many of my meetings was the success of, and continuation of the EB-5 Investment Program,' which provided visas to foreigners investing in the U.S. He said the program 'should be re-authorized immediately' and that criticism of it 'has even me scratching my head.' In a statement to Score, Brown said he supports 'the recent oversight effort by Congress into potential abuses into the EB-5 program.' 'A lot has changed globally in the decade since that trip, including my time serving as President Trump's ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa where I regularly supported the administration's long overdue efforts to crack down on Communist China's rule breaking,' Brown said. 'I commend the recent oversight effort by Congress into potential abuses into the EB-5 program and look forward to supporting President Trump's efforts to crack down on China in the Senate.' Democratic candidate Rep. Chris Pappas supported a bill in two congressional sessions that would have removed the per-country cap on EB-5 visas, which would have benefited people in countries including China who were trying to get such a visa. DNC 2024 AUTOPSY — The New York Times' Reid J. Epstein and Shane Goldmacher report that the DNC's much-anticipated 2024 election report will not touch on some key moments from the trail, like President Joe Biden's choice to drop out, or the question of whether Vice President Kamala Harris was his best replacement. The report's omission of some of these key moments — Epstein and Goldmacher write — 'is something like eating at a steakhouse and then reviewing the salad.' MORE FROM 2024 — 'Local Democratic candidates say that they didn't receive the institutional support their campaigns needed in 2024, as the Democratic ecosystem poured money and resources into topline contests like the presidential race,' Campaigns and Elections' Max Greenwood reports. 'A survey of nearly 1,000 local Democratic hopefuls conducted by the Pipeline Fund, a group that provides funding and support to progressive candidates, found that nearly half of respondents – 49 percent – said they received only some, very little or none of the help that they needed for their campaigns last year.' IOWA SENATE — Despite recent worries over her potential retirement, Sen. Joni Ernst is dismissing the fears as 'chitter chatter,' according to Radio Iowa's O. Kay Henderson. 'There's always all kinds of chitter chatter everywhere, but I have a lot left to do in the United States Senate, so I am not slowing down any time soon. We'll have an announcement this fall,' Ernst said. 2028 WATCH — 'Democrats in South Carolina are barely pretending they're not already running for president,' my colleagues Brakkton Booker and Elena Schneider report. EPSTEIN FALLOUT — 'The unlikely alliance of the populist left and right has strengthened over the Jeffrey Epstein controversy,' POLITICO's Liz Crampton, Holly Otterbein and Daniel Desrochers reported over the weekend. IN TEXAS — 'Joe Rogan's Latest Guest Might Turn Texas Blue,' my colleague Adam Wren reports. 'When we got the email invitation, I originally thought it was a phishing scam. But we called them and realized it was legit, and it was a surprise,' Democratic Texas state Rep. James Talarico told Adam. CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: 'It's all or nothing. We either win or even I will move to Florida. God forbid!' said former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, on his general election mayoral bid.
