GOP relieved after Lawler clears path for Stefanik in New York governor's race

The Hill

4 days ago

Rep. Mike Lawler's (R-N.Y.) decision to forgo a New York gubernatorial run has cleared a path for Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) to mount her own candidacy, teeing up what will be one of the most watched governor's races next year.
Lawler's choice takes off the table a potentially bitter primary that New York Republicans hoped to avoid in a state the GOP has increasingly set their sights on. Democrats took the news as a win, arguing Lawler, who has cultivated a reputation as a moderate, is more electable.
But Republicans said the congressman's decision allows them to skip over a messy intraparty battle and direct their full attention to ousting Gov. Kathy Hochul (D).
'We have to unify behind a candidate sooner rather than later and dedicate our resources to the task at hand, which is ending Kathy Hochul's disastrous reign as governor and putting our state back on a path to prosperity,' said Erie County GOP Chair Michael Kracker.
Republicans have for months been itching to face Hochul in 2026.
Former Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-N.Y.), who now serves as administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, surprised many in 2022 when he came within 6.5 points of defeating Hochul in the state's closest gubernatorial race in decades. Republicans also picked up multiple House seats, including Lawler's, as part of a disappointing night for Democrats in the Empire State.
While Democrats picked up a few of those seats last November and won New York by double digits in the presidential race, the state experienced the largest rightward shift toward President Trump of any state in the country.
With polls often showing Hochul's favorability rating underwater, Republicans are optimistic that they can build on their previous gains to elect the first Republican governor of New York since former Gov. George Pataki won the 2002 race for his third term.
One potential area of concern came as Lawler and Stefanik, coming off her nomination for United Nations ambassador being withdrawn, both expressed interest in running. Republicans wanted to avoid a heated primary battle in which the candidates focus their fire on each other, potentially weakening whoever emerged with the nomination.
Kracker argued that Zeldin having to run in a competitive primary hurt him in 2022, as he faced three other candidates.
Lawler's decision helps avoid that, leaving Stefanik as the top name potentially in the mix for a run. Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman is also considering a run for governor but is first running for reelection to his current position and has trailed Stefanik in early hypothetical polls.
If Stefanik runs, which a source familiar with her thinking told The Hill last month is 'not a matter of if, it's a matter of when,' she'll likely have support from Trump.
Stefanik has become a close ally of the president in recent years, and a Truth Social post that Trump made in May endorsing Lawler for reelection to his House seat was seen by some observers as a nudge in favor of Stefanik running for governor.
One New York Republican strategist said Lawler made the right decision given the narrow House Republican majority, and the field should now be clear for Stefanik if she goes forward with a run. He said the decision should also give Republicans a boost to have a chance at winning next year.
'It's really important to keep our powder dry and spend it on the right targets,' he said.
Republican strategist Bill Cortese, who previously served as an adviser to Stefanik, pointed to the congresswoman's significant fundraising last quarter, in which she raised $4 million and indicated she had $11 million cash on hand. Her political operation said her cash in the bank is the largest amount for a New York Republican ever.
'A significant amount of that can roll over to a gubernatorial race,' Cortese said. 'That's something compared to 2022, if you can walk in with a significant fundraising advantage and avoid a costly primary, then you can focus on Kathy Hochul and her failed policies early on and run a general election campaign from now all the way through November of 2026.'
But Democrats are also pleased with the news Lawler isn't running, expecting that Stefanik, who doesn't have Lawler's moderate reputation and is closer to Trump, may be less palatable to voters in what is ultimately still a blue state.
Democrats pointed to Lawler's past comments that he would only run if he saw a path to win and his statement that he still 'fundamentally' believes that he's best positioned to face Hochul. He previously said that Republican candidates in New York can 'get all the Republican votes you want' but still need some Democratic and independent votes.
Democratic strategist Hank Sheinkopf argued Stefanik will have a problem in the general election, as Trump remains unpopular in New York despite his gains last year. He said Lawler has closer ties to the suburbs of New York City, an area that Republicans need to win at least 25 to 30 percent of to compete.
He argued Blakeman would be a stronger candidate in this regard.
'If it's Stefanik, it'll be a tougher battle, and it'll be easier for the Democrats,' Sheinkopf said.
But members of both parties acknowledged one additional factor that could give Republicans an extra tool: the rise of Zohran Mamdani, the Democratic nominee for mayor of New York City. If he wins the general election in November, Republicans will likely try to tie Hochul to Mamdani and socialism more broadly.
Hochul hasn't endorsed Mamdani in the race but said she would have conversations with him.
Still, some in the GOP acknowledged that a Republican with a national profile and with Trump ties like Stefanik could be facing a larger challenge than Lawler would have.
Republican strategist Tom Doherty said several factors must coalesce for Republicans to pull off a win, including an exhaustion among voters with Democrats, as seen when Pataki defeated former Gov. Mario Cuomo (D).
'The feeling is obviously that Stefanik and Republicans believe that the state is now ripe for the picking,' he said. 'It still remains a very, very difficult race just based on the numbers.'
Democrats outnumber Republicans in voter registration by more than a 2-to-1 margin in the state.
But Doherty added that if Trump can improve his approval numbers among independents, it could present an opportunity.
'Hochul will have the resources, and then it's just a question of whether or not [Republicans] can get enough votes in an overwhelming Democratic state,' he said. 'It certainly can be done. But it's still climbing a little bit uphill.'