Post-Pahalgam
Security lapse questions need clear answers. LoC/border infra needs massive upgrade
Undeniably, Pahalgam has been a huge blow to India's security apparatus in J&K. Now, SOPs must be overhauled, systems reoriented, and coordination between agencies sharpened. But the revamp must begin with some tough questions. Was Baisaran Valley opened up to tourists much earlier than other years? Some reports say the area is usually open to visitors during the Amarnath Yatra, when there are stringent security arrangements. Whether or not local hoteliers and tour operators failed to inform authorities about tourist movement isn't clear. Were arrangements this week different to those in the last tourist season? Local tourism industry is arguing that govt didn't provide them with any alerts ahead of the tourist influx. Clearly, vital coordination between security forces and local businesses fell through the cracks.
Border lacunae: Note also that the terrorists had better eyes on the situation, saw an opportunity and struck. This shows that terrorists are constantly probing for weaknesses. That's why terrorists need to be stopped at the border/LoC itself. But there are multiple lacunae with border infra too. Govt had launched the Comprehensive Integrated Border Management System project after the 2016 Pathankot attack to upgrade border fencing with state-of-the-art surveillance systems. But it remains a work in progress, having missed two deadlines in 2018 and 2023.
Bureaucracy that kills: Plus, routine weather-related challenges with border fencing management remain. Damage to fencing due to winter snow takes months to repair because of both terrain and bureaucratic delays. Battery-operated surveillance equipment such as night-vision devices drain power quickly in the cold and can't be charged due to lack of power at many places along the border. Repairs to sensitive surveillance radar can take weeks. Fuel for generators that run searchlights often runs low. Even electrified fencing has proved to be ineffective in some places due to lack of steady electricity supply and low voltage. These leave gaps in the border fencing that terrorists exploit.
Smuggling-terror nexus: Arms – including weapons for Nato – are being smuggled into Punjab via drones. A similar smuggling route exists via Nepal. Nato-grade weapons have been seized from terrorists in J&K. This is happening under our noses. Why hasn't govt been able to crack down on the influx of smuggled weapons?
Response failure: Former army commanders are calling Pahalgam an intelligence failure. It's a familiar pattern, but the history of terrorist attacks this century shows the charge is misplaced. While the facts of Pahalgam are yet to be established, the Oct 7, 2023 Hamas attack, Pulwama, Uri, 26/11, and 9/11 all point to a different problem – 'response failure'. There were warnings in all these cases that weren't acted upon. America's 9/11 Commission report summed up the problem well: 'No analytic work foresaw the lightning that could connect the thundercloud to the ground.' And 9/11 was a colossal response failure. Leads about a possible attack had been coming in all summer, yet 'as late as Sep 4' govt didn't have an answer to the question, 'Is al Qaeda a big deal?' Before 26/11, India received warnings of a major attack from its own sources and US. As for Pulwama, Frontline found there were at least 11 intelligence inputs between Jan 2 and Feb 13, 2019 – a day before the attack. Israel had been getting warnings of Hamas's invasion plan since 2018. At least, its security agency, Shin Bet, has formally accepted its lapses within 18 months. In India, probes take long, and mea culpas are unheard of.
So, the least we expect after Pahalgam is a timely inquiry, and publication of its findings to restore people's confidence. Govt owes it to the 26 victims of the massacre, and to Kashmir, which needs to return to normalcy.
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This piece appeared as an editorial opinion in the print edition of The Times of India.
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