Trump's transactional foreign policy fuels ‘US scepticism' in Taiwan

Straits Times

11 hours ago

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There are concerns that Taiwan is being used as a bargaining chip in US trade talks with China, which claims the island as its territory.
– Pressure is mounting for Taipei to finalise a trade agreement with Washington and lower tariff rates as soon as possible – and it is not just for economic reasons.
The fact that Taiwan has yet to secure a favourable US tariff rate for its exports – despite being one of the first and most eager territories to start talks – has raised questions about President Lai Ching-te's relationship with not only one of the island's largest trading partners, but also its most important security backer.
Mr Lai wrote on Facebook on Aug 1 that Taiwan is still working on an agreement with the United States, saying that 'the final tariff rate has not yet been determined', and that the 20 per cent rate announced by US President Donald Trump on July 31 is only temporary.
'The government will strive for more favourable and reasonable tax rates for Taiwan in subsequent negotiations,' he said.
Since Mr Trump unveiled his ' L iberation D ay' tariffs on April 2 , when he threatened to slap Taiwan with a punishing 32 per cent tariff rate, Taipei officials have scrambled to appease him and reach a compromise on trade. For one thing , Taipei has pledged to significantly increase purchases of American goods, such as natural gas.
On July 31, hours before Mr Trump's self-imposed midnight deadline ,
he imposed a 20 per cent tariff rate on Taiwan – higher than those directed at Taiwan's key export competitors in the region. Both Japan and South Korea managed to secure tariff rates of 15 per cent after finalising trade agreements with the US days before the Aug 1 deadline.
'Taiwan's lack of a trade deal ahead of Trump's Aug 1 deadline reflected poorly on the Lai administration,' said Professor Julien Chaisse, an international trade and legal expert at the City University of Hong Kong.
'It handed an easy talking point to his critics, who already argue that his administration is too reliant on Washington,' he told The Straits Times.
Taipei sees Washington as its biggest security partner against Beijing, which claims the island as its territory and has in recent years ratcheted up military, diplomatic and economic pressure on it.
The US is obligated under the Taiwan Relations Act, passed by the US Congress in 1979, to provide the island with the arms it needs to defend itself.
Under the leadership of Mr Lai's Democratic Progressive Party, Taiwan has sought to foster warmer ties with Washington amid heightened cross- s trait tensions.
'The public will think: Why, even after four rounds of trade negotiations (between Taipei and Washington), that such a poor outcome was reached for Taiwan,' said Professor Wang Hung-jen from Taiwan's National Cheng Kung University.
'Doubts will arise about the Lai administration's ability to handle Taiwan-US relations in future,' added Prof Wang, who researches international relations.
Other recent events have also deepened fears that US-Taiwan relations are straining – more worryingly, at the expense of Taiwan's future as Mr Trump seeks a trade deal with Beijing and a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping. In other words, there are concerns that Taiwan is being used as a bargaining chip in US trade talks with China.
In July, the Financial Times reported that Trump officials had blocked Mr Lai's request to transit through New York during a planned overseas trip to Taipei's Latin American allies, after China raised objections with Washington.
The US also reportedly cancelled a meeting in June with Taiwanese Defence Minister Wellington Koo at the last minute, after Mr Xi urged Mr Trump to limit US-Taiwan engagement on a phone call earlier that month.
'These developments could fuel yi mei lun in Taiwan,' said Prof Wang, referring to the 'America scepticism' narrative that questions the reliability of the US as a trusty security partner for Taiwan.
While the narrative is mostly spread by pro-Beijing players in Taiwan and disinformation campaigns, Mr Trump's transactional foreign policy has added to a sense of unease that the US may ultimately leave the island hanging in the balance in the event of a Chinese invasion.
Such doubts have grown in Taiwan since Mr Trump took office in January.
According to an April survey published by US-based research organisation Brookings Institution, Taiwanese believe that the US is less trustworthy now than a year ago, when Mr Joe Biden was president. Some 15.9 per cent of Taiwanese said that the US was 'very untrustworthy', close to double the 8.2 per cent recorded nine months prior.
Respondents from the same survey also said they felt less confident that Washington would support them in the event of a military conflict with China, with only 37.5 per cent of Taiwanese saying that it was 'likely' or 'very likely' that the US would step in, down from 44.5 per cent.
But as observers have often noted, the only thing predictable about Mr Trump is that he is unpredictable.
Mr Ryan Hass, director of the John L. Thornton China Centre at Brookings Institution, described Mr Trump's approach to Taiwan as 'more fluid than constant'.
The US leader has similarly 'done a version of this zigzag' in his approach to Ukraine in recent months, Mr Hass wrote in an August commentary co-authored with Dr Richard Bush, a non-resident senior fellow at the same think-tank.
When Mr Trump decided that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was a hurdle to a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, he lashed out at Mr Zelensky in the Oval Office , during a televised meeting of his visit in February .
But Mr Trump has since returned to supporting the Ukrainian leader, now that the US President has determined that his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin is impeding progress.
'Trump's shifting stance on Ukraine suggests a real possibility that he could pursue a similarly adaptive approach to managing cross- s trait relations,' the authors wrote in their commentary .
'Trump views his unpredictability as a strategic asset.'