&w=3840&q=100)
Russia ramps up offensives against Ukraine as both sides seek advantage
Moscow aims to maximise its territorial gains before seriously considering a full ceasefire, analysts and military commanders said. Ukraine wants to slow the Russian advance for as long as possible and extract heavy losses.
Kremlin forces are steadily gaining ground in the strategic eastern logistics hub of Pokrovsk, the capture of which would hand them a major battlefield victory and bring them closer to acquiring the entire Donetsk region. The fighting there has also brought combat to the border of the neighboring Dnipropetrovsk region for the first time.
In an effort to prevent Moscow from bolstering those positions in the east, Ukrainian forces are trying to pin down some of Russia's best and most battle-hardened troops hundreds of kilometers away, in the northeast Sumy region.
The best-case scenario for Ukraine," said Russian-British military historian Sergey Radchenko, "is that they're able to stall or stop the Russian advance" in the Ukrainian industrial heartland known as Donbas, which includes the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Then Ukraine could "use that as the basis for a ceasefire agreement.
There's a better chance for Russia to come to some kind of terms with Ukraine" in the fall when the Russians "see the extent of their offensive, Radchenko added.
While the battles rage, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is waiting to learn whether the Trump administration will support tougher sanctions against Russia and back a European idea to establish a reassurance force to deter Moscow. One setback came with the US decision to halt some weapons shipments out of concern over the US's own depleted stockpiles.
Ukraine faces relentless assaults in Sumy
In the Sumy region, Ukrainian forces face a constant barrage of aerial glide bombs, drones and relentless assaults by small groups of Russian infantrymen. They endure the attacks to prevent Russian forces from being moved to other battlegrounds in the eastern Donetsk region.
Ukrainian forces intensified their own attacks in Sumy in April and even conducted a small offensive into Russia's neighboring Kursk region to prevent up to 60,000 battle-hardened Russian forces from being moved to reinforce positions in the Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, Ukraine's top army commander, Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, said last week.
If those troops had been moved, they could have increased the tempo of Russian attacks across the front line and stretched Ukrainian forces thin.
The strategy did not come without criticism. Commanders who were ordered to execute it complained that it resulted in unnecessary loss of life.
Russian forces have penetrated up to 7 kilometers into the northern Sumy region from different directions along the border.
Ukrainian forces are determined to keep them there to avoid freeing up Russian forces to fight in the east. So far they have succeeded, locking up to 10,000 Russian troops in the Glushkovsky district of the Kursk region alone, where Ukraine maintains a small presence after being mostly forced out by Russian and North Korean troops earlier in the year.
Russia seeks maximum gains in Donetsk
The war's largest battle is being waged in Donetsk as Russia inches toward its stated goal of capturing all of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
Unable to tackle the strategically significant logistical hub of Pokrovsk directly, Russian forces are attempting to encircle the city, a maneuver that requires encroaching on the borders of the Dnipropetrovsk region. Bringing the war to a sixth Ukrainian region would be detrimental for Ukrainian morale and give Russia more leverage in negotiations if its forces manage to carve out a foothold there.
Sabotage groups have crossed the border, only to be eliminated by Ukrainian forces.
But in time, commanders fear that Russia will advance as Ukraine continues to grapple with severe shortages.
Lack of soldiers and supplies across the 1,200-kilometer (745-mile) front line mean that Ukrainian forces must concentrate on holding their positions and conserving resources rather than advancing, said Oleksii Makhrinskyi, deputy commander of the Da Vinci Wolves battalion.
Commanders describe battles so intense under drone-saturated skies that rotating forces in and out of position has become a deadly operation. Ukrainian forces remain in combat positions for several weeks at a time or more, relying on supplies carried in by drones.
The Russians' goal "is just to enter Dnipropetrovsk region, to have a good position politically if the presidents negotiate peace, said Andrii Nazerenko, a commander of the 72nd Brigade, a drone unit in eastern Ukraine, referring to potential talks between Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
They're really close to getting what they want, he said.
All eyes on Trump's next move
Zelenskyy hopes US President Donald Trump will move away from his administration's past ambivalence toward Ukraine and signal his intention to continue American support, a move that could also alter Moscow's calculations. The two presidents met last week on the sidelines of a NATO summit and discussed a possible weapons package, including Patriot missile systems that Ukraine intends to purchase with European support.
The US Defence Department did not specify which weapons were being held back, when they disclosed the Pentagon review of US weapons stockpiles Tuesday.
Zelenskyy also hopes Trump will punish Russia by imposing harsher sanctions on its energy and banking sectors, which bankroll the Kremlin's war effort.
Europe and the U.S. have imposed successive sanctions on Russia since the full-scale invasion in 2022, but Zelenskyy says those measures have not been enough to pierce Moscow's war machine. He has proposed a $30 per barrel price cap on Russian oil.
EU sanctions envoy David O'Sullivan said Europe needs to maintain the sanctions pressure while also holding out the prospect that if Russia behaves correctly, we could have some kind of ceasefire and some kind of sense of negotiation, but for the moment Russia doesn't seem to want that.
Kyiv's closest European allies are also awaiting a sign from Trump that he will support a plan to deploy foreign troops in Ukraine to guard against future Russian aggression after a ceasefire agreement. That is likely the best security guarantee Ukraine can hope for in lieu of NATO membership.
Meanwhile on the battlefield, Russian forces appear increasingly confident.
Nazerenko noticed a shift in the morale of advancing Russian infantrymen in recent months. Instead of running away while being assailed by Ukrainian drones, they keep pushing forward.
Nazerenko could not help but ask a Russian prisoner, You know you will die. Why go? Because, the Russian soldier replied, we will win.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
First Post
6 minutes ago
- First Post
Trump "Disappointed" in Putin After Failed Truce Push Vantage with Palki Sharma
Trump "Disappointed" in Putin After Failed Truce Push | Vantage with Palki Sharma | N18G Trump "Disappointed" in Putin After Failed Truce Push | Vantage with Palki Sharma | N18G Donald Trump said he was "disappointed" in Vladimir Putin after a phone call between the two leaders failed to produce a breakthrough. While Trump has pushed Putin to end the war in Ukraine, the Russian leader has refused to end the fighting unless his war goals are met. Is Trump losing patience with Putin? What will be his next move? Palki Sharma tells you. See More
&w=3840&q=100)
First Post
16 minutes ago
- First Post
Why a tariff standoff with the EU could hurt the US more than it helps
As Trump threatens steep tariffs on European goods, economists warn that the trade standoff could end up hurting the US economy more than helping it. Higher prices, disrupted supply chains and retaliatory EU tariffs could strain American consumers and businesses ahead of a fragile economic recovery. read more As the world watches, President Donald Trump is poised to escalate a brewing trade battle with America's largest trading partner, the European Union, a move economists warn could ultimately backfire on the United States more than it benefits it. Having already slapped a 20% import duty on EU goods in April, Trump temporarily scaled it back to 10% in response to market jitters and to leave room for negotiations. But with a July 9 deadline looming and frustration mounting over the EU's trade stance, the president has now threatened to hike tariffs on European exports to an eye-watering 50%. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD If enforced, that could make a wide array of goods from French cheese and Italian leather to German electronics and Spanish medicines significantly more expensive in US stores. The EU has signalled it is ready to retaliate with tariffs on hundreds of American products, including beef, auto parts, aircraft and even beer potentially dragging both economies into a protracted and damaging trade war. The stakes are high in transatlantic trade The United States and the European Union together account for the world's most significant commercial relationship, with bilateral trade in goods and services reaching €1.7 trillion ($2 trillion) in 2024 or about €4.6 billion per day, according to Eurostat. Europe is a major buyer of U.S. crude oil, pharmaceuticals, aircraft, and cars, while the U.S. imports high volumes of European cars, chemicals, wine, and medical devices. While Trump has fixated on the EU's €198 billion ($233 billion) surplus in goods, U.S. dominance in services such as cloud computing and legal consulting helps offset that imbalance, bringing the real trade deficit down to roughly €50 billion ($59 billion). But Trump's focus on goods, and his calls for 'fair' trade, have prompted a sharp shift in tone from prior administrations which typically kept tariffs low 1.47% on EU imports to the US and 1.35% in reverse and engaged in more collaborative trade talks. US consumers and businesses may pay the price Raising tariffs may appeal to Trump's base as a show of economic strength, but analysts warn the fallout will likely be felt at home and soon. Higher import costs almost always translate into higher retail prices for consumers, especially for goods with few domestic substitutes. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD European luxury carmakers like Mercedes-Benz, which assembles some vehicles in Alabama, say they can cushion some of the blow for now. But across the board, auto prices and the cost of consumer goods are expected to climb if tariffs rise sharply. Makers of spirits like Italy's Campari Group have hinted they may absorb or adjust prices based on market conditions, but warn that long-term uncertainty could harm competitiveness. 'This kind of tariff escalation could squeeze US households at a time when inflation remains a sensitive political issue,' warned Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank as reported by AP. Meanwhile, US manufacturers that rely on imported parts could also suffer, with ripple effects through supply chains and job markets. Though Trump argues that restricting foreign imports will fuel a revival in domestic manufacturing, most analysts say such a shift would take years, if it materialises at all. Trade tensions mask deeper issues Trump has also taken aim at deeper policy issues including EU food safety rules that restrict products like chlorine-washed chicken and hormone-treated beef and Europe's value-added tax (VAT), which ranges from 17% to 27%. But economists argue VAT systems are trade-neutral and aren't typically negotiated in trade deals. The EU, for its part, insists its consumer and environmental regulations are non-negotiable. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD 'The EU cannot rewrite its internal market rules just to satisfy US complaints that often reflect misunderstandings about how Europe operates,' Schmieding said. Could the US economy take a bigger hit? A failure to reach a deal could be more economically painful for the US than the EU. A review by Brussels-based think tank Bruegel estimates that in the event of tariffs rising to 25%, US GDP could shrink by 0.7%, while the EU's economy would lose around 0.3%. Some multinational companies, like luxury giant LVMH, have floated the idea of shifting more production to the U.S. to avoid tariffs, but warn that such decisions are costly and may ultimately depend on whether a deal is reached. With a tight deadline ahead, both sides may opt for a temporary framework that averts the worst-case scenario. Still, many in Europe believe the U.S. may back down from the most extreme tariff threats not out of goodwill but because of domestic economic realities. 'Trump may claim victory by rolling back some of the harsher threats,' said Schmieding. 'But if tariffs remain high, it's the American consumer who will bear the brunt.' STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD With inputs from agencies
First Post
17 minutes ago
- First Post
Russia Takes Full Control of Ukraine's Luhansk Region: Kremlin Vantage on Firstpost
Russia Takes Full Control of Ukraine's Luhansk Region: Kremlin | Vantage on Firstpost | N18G Russia Takes Full Control of Ukraine's Luhansk Region: Kremlin | Vantage on Firstpost | N18G Moscow claims to have seized the entire Luhansk region of Ukraine, nearly three years into the Russia-Ukraine war that started in February 2022. This makes Luhansk the first Ukrainian region to be fully occupied by Russia since the Russian annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014. In September 2022, Putin had announced the annexation of four Ukrainian regions — including Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia — a move opposed by major western nations. See More
