This Pizza Chain's Stock Surged 360%--But Is the Slice Still Worth the Price?
Warning! GuruFocus has detected 6 Warning Sign with CASY.
But it's not just food that's fueling the run. Casey's has leaned into M&A, targeting small chains that make up over 60% of the 150,000+ U.S. convenience stores. Its biggest deal yetlast year's $1.1 billion acquisition of CEFCOadded nearly 200 stores and a key fuel terminal, extending Casey's reach into high-growth states like Texas and Florida. The company has been adding around 100 stores a year, with a current footprint of about 2,900 locations across 19 states. That's still far behind giants like 7-Eleven or Circle K, but Casey's rural focus gives it pricing power and customer loyalty in markets with limited competition.
Still, not every analyst is on board at these levels. The stock closed at $518.28 on Thursday, trading at roughly 35x earningsa premium to convenience store peers and even most pizza chains. BMO's Kelly Bania noted that rising expectations leave little margin for error, while Wells Fargo's Anthony Bonadio flagged that any slowdown in growthor signs of strength from other retailerscould trigger a rotation. Others remain constructive, pointing to Casey's unique traffic drivers: fuel, beer, tobacco, and foodan edge that traditional QSRs can't match. But with the bar set this high, Casey's next chapter will need more than just good pizza.
This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
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