Can Marit Stiles save Ontario's sliding New Democrats?

Hamilton Spectator

7 days ago

On the worst of election nights for the federal New Democrats, Ontario NDP Leader Marit Stiles sat at home with her husband, TV on blast, fluffy dogs underfoot, and watched her friends slide into historic defeat.
At a certain point, a bottle of Chardonnay appeared. Glasses were filled and finished but wine did little to soften the real-time destruction of party that
won a mere seven of its previous 24 seats.
'It was brutal,' Stiles recalls.
She was just as forceful in dismissing the suggestion that the New Democrats' dramatic national loss is dragging down the Ontario NDP, five months after Premier Doug Ford called a snap election that he won as a tariff-slaying Captain Canada, fighting the menace of U.S. President Donald Trump.
As Stiles sees it, the Ontario and federal elections of 2025 focused on the existential threat of economic warfare launched by Trump, not real-life concerns over hallway medicine or unaffordable housing.
And after much of the summer spent touring the province, Stiles says she heard a 'very strong sense of remorse' among some who voted outside party lines.
That sentiment will be heartening to diehard NDPers, particularly when delivered by a leader who, it appears, is very convincing.
But it does not explain how the most recent Abacus Data tracking poll found Ford's Progressive Conservatives reached a record high 50 per cent approval rating and Bonnie Crombie's Liberals holding steady at 28 per cent.
Whither the Ontario NDP?
It was at 13 per cent — its lowest-ever standing in an Abacus poll.
******
It's a sweaty night in July. Thunderclouds hang low. At Gracedale Park, near Finch and Islington Aves., an ice cream truck hired by the local New Democrat MPP Tom Rakocevic serves three options: vanilla, chocolate or vanilla-chocolate swirl.
Rakocevic, the incumbent, squeezed out a win here in Humber River—Black Creek, beating his Progressive Conservative challenger by just 193 votes.
It is a diverse riding, with many languages spoken and a blue-collar hard-working demographic, where the 2021 census said the unemployment rate was more than double the national average.
In 34C heat, an estimated 1,000 parents, children and locals stand in a long line winding through the trees deep inside the park, all waiting for one small free cone of soft ice cream.
As politicians do, Rakocevic chats with constituents. He's got a nice-guy vibe and introduces locals to Stiles, who was acclaimed as Ontario's NDP leader in February 2023. She's smiling, laughing and shaking hands, as politicians do.
Abdi Hassan stands alone at the park's edge, watching the scene. A few hours earlier, he picked up an award from Rakocevic and Stiles for his community work.
Hassan has been fascinated with Canadian politics since Jean Chrétien was prime minister. Despite the popularity of tonight's ice cream giveaway, he says it's obvious that support for the New Democrats is down.
'Their
message is not hitting the ground,' he says.
'A lot of people, especially the newcomers, they cannot identify the party line. What does this party stand for? I think if (the New Democrats) do a lot of grassroots education in this immigrant population, they could increase their numbers, because their ideas are connected to this community.'
But that means changing, or intensifying, the way the party connects with voters and, he says, broadening the base to include some from the business community.
If it holds tight to the status quo, Hassan believes the NDP risks being left behind as a 'relic, socialist kind of party.
'You have to grow,' he says. 'You have to change your attitude.'
A veteran party insider has a similar perspective.
The New Democrats' inability to pivot from their traditional social issues to salvation from the capricious Trump forced voters who fear America more than a hallway hospital gurney to pick the party that adapted and advanced with fraught times.
Ontario's election came first, on Feb. 27, a night of precarious wins and losses. It didn't help that some union leaders, once a lock for the NDP, embraced Ford, bleeding votes to his conservative party.
Guy Bourgouin, the NDP MPP for Mushkegowuk-James Bay, won his riding by nine votes. The NDP lost Sault Ste. Marie to the Progressive Conservatives by 114 votes, despite Ford's bungled response to the closure of a local medical clinic that left 10,000 residents without a doctor. Rakocevic's race was close, despite his incumbent status.
And in Toronto—St. Paul's, a riding New Democrat incumbent Jill Andrew had held since 2018, Liberal Stephanie Smyth won by 3,988 votes.
Now, as Ontario's party faithful prepare for their September convention in Niagara Falls, the insider says there is only one question that matters:
Can the NDP rebuild?
'The game has changed because we have lost so much ground to the Liberals and the Conservatives, it seems unthinkable,' says the insider, who spoke confidentially in order to discuss internal party deliberations.
'Part of that is the party has an identity crisis. They don't know who they are or what they stand for anymore because a lot of the unions or other constituents are now looking at and voting for the other two parties — and that's a problem.'
From the perspective of Mike Layton, the Ontario party should embrace the qualities that Stiles brings and not worry about the Ford bravado that gets attention.
Stiles's power is found in the personal connections she makes with people, says Layton, a long-time Toronto city councillor who left politics for philanthropy at Second Harvest. (Layton's father, Jack, led the national NDP to a record 103 seats in the House of Commons.)
'It comes across in a more compassionate way,' he says. 'It doesn't make headlines, but I think it has a lasting impact on people's impressions.'
It may be early days for Stiles but her warmth with potential voters didn't help in the Abacus summer poll, nor did it offset the steep decline in popular vote to 18.5 per cent during the winter election.
But still, under Stiles, the party won 27 seats and kept its Official Opposition status which, theoretically, allows Ontarians to see a lot more of the new leader.
And that, says the insider, is the best shot for a resurgent Ontario NDP.
'Marit is a smart, authentic and deeply rooted New Democrat.'
*****
No worries here, Stiles says, in her Queen's Park office.
'
I have learned over many years that polls are a snapshot in time,' she says, 'and I think we are in a very strange and unique time.'
Justin Trudeau's Liberals were facing imminent defeat last year and look how that turned out, she notes.
Still, Stiles knows that going into the 2025 election she was relatively unknown, having been unopposed when she ran for the NDP leadership two years earlier, and thus not benefiting from a race that might have raised her profile.
Once the debrief on the winter election was done, Stiles says her informal summer campaign began. She has been travelling across the province meeting voters, grateful that the campaign flights through raging northern Ontario snowstorms are now a thing of the past, best left to party lore.
While September's convention will include a mandatory vote on whether to have a leadership review, party members believe Stiles is safe.
Still, Stiles needs to present the NDP faithful with a legitimate plan to compete against the vote-stealing Progressive Conservatives and Liberals who will be making promises on similar issues, especially if, by some miracle, the threat from Mar-a-Lago settles down.
The party's blueprint for the future, Stiles says, starts with evidence and empathy.
Health care with a focus on public health investment and prevention. The housing plan, Stiles says, calls for homes that are 'truly, deeply affordable.' Upload some transit costs from municipalities to the province. Offer wraparound services to older adults. And for the young, a new focus on education.
Local riding associations, she says, need a commitment to support workers and create a presence in communities, the nurturing years.
What about the views of boots-on-the-ground observers such as Hassan, the community advocate, at the ice cream party in Humber River—Black Creek?
'I hear the same sort of things from other people saying they think the NDP needs to focus
less
on the middle class and
more
on the working class,' Stiles says.
But Hassan spoke about the need for all-encompassing plan to expand the appeal.
'I completely agree with him there,' she says. 'If
we can tap into and get even a fraction of the people who have not voted in the last few elections to vote and, to vote for us, great!
'I
want to give people a reason to vote. I want to give them a reason to hope again.'